Big 12 Championship Game: TCU vs. Oklahoma Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

Since becoming Big 12 rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners are 5-1 in six meetings with the TCU Horned Frogs, including a convincing victory just three weeks ago.

Oklahoma shoots for a repeat of that performance, with a berth in the College Football Playoff on the line, when the teams meet in the Big 12 conference championship game Saturday afternoon in Arlington, Texas.

College football point spread: The Sooners opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.5-34.2 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

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Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs ended their regular season with consecutive victories, beating Texas Tech 27-3 and Baylor 45-22, to secure a berth in this Big 12 championship bout.

TCU spotted the Bears the first nine points of the game last week, two on a safety, then used a 21-0 spurt to take the lead for good. Near the end, the Frogs got close to covering the 25-point spread but settled for a field goal from the Baylor 6-yard line and just missed out on the cash.

Texas Christian put up 438 yards of offense and won the turnover battle 3-0, resulting in a plus-14 point differential. TCU has now outgained five of its last seven opponents and outrushed nine of its last 10 foes.

And at No. 11 in the latest CFP rankings, the Frogs actually still cling to faint hopes of making the CFP themselves.

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners finished their regular season with seven straight victories, including a 59-31 win over West Virginia last week. Oklahoma took a 7-0 lead less than one minute into the game and pushed that to 45-10 by halftime, on its way to the victory and the cover as a 23-point favorite.

The Sooners posted 646 yards of offense last week, 313 on the ground and 333 through the air. Oklahoma has now outgained each of its 12 opponents this season, half of them by 180 yards and more.

Three weeks ago, the Sooners beat TCU 38-20, covering a six-point spread, and that game wasn't even as close as that final score might indicate. At No. 3 in the latest CFP standings, Oklahoma is in with a victory Saturday.

Smart pick

Oklahoma won this matchup rather easily three weeks ago, but the previous five meetings in this series were all decided by seven points or less. The Sooners might well still win this one, but the betting value probably hangs with the Frogs.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in six of TCU's last eight games against Oklahoma.

The total has gone under in 15 of Oklahoma's last 19 games in December.

Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.