Super-Early Grades for CBB's Top Freshmen in the 2017-18 Season
After years of anticipation, we finally got our first (college basketball) look at many of the top prospects for the 2018 NBA draft. Although, in the case of possible No. 1 overall pick Michael Porter Jr., that first look lasted less than two minutes, and we're not sure when the next look will be.
Yesterday, we published some knee-jerk reactions to the start of the season. If you read that piece and were wondering why there weren't any freshmen on the list, it's because we were saving up for these ridiculously early evaluations of the top first-year guys.
Some of them have been even better than advertised. Jaren Jackson Jr. is soaring on draft boards after just two games, and Duke's trio of top-10 freshmen has been rock solid, contributing significantly to the early feeling that everyone other than the Blue Devils is playing for second place.
But there have also been injuries, suspensions and lackluster starts, resulting in a weird overall opening week for potential lottery picks.
The following potential one-and-done studs are the top 10 players (excluding Mitchell Robinson) from the 247 Sports composite ranking of this year's class. They are listed in alphabetical order by last name.
Deandre Ayton, Arizona
1 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Northern Arizona: 19 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks
Nov. 12 vs. UMBC: 19 points, 13 rebounds, two blocks
Nov. 16 vs. Cal State Bakersfield: 18 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals
Per 40: 25.5 points, 15.9 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 2.3 assists
Super-Early Grade: A+
The difficulty in trying to evaluate Deandre Ayton's early play is that he has yet to face a worthy adversary. Heading into Thursday night, Cal State Bakersfield's five leaders in minutes played were all 6'6" or shorter. And both Northern Arizona and UMBC ranked in the bottom 75 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last season.
Then again, we're talking about a 7'1" power forward with three-point range and muscle on top of muscle. Most NBA teams don't have the personnel to deal with Ayton, so we certainly shouldn't be surprised that the Lumberjacks, Retrievers and Roadrunners weren't well-equipped to deal with him.
He got off to a slow start against Bakersfield, but once he got going in the second half, oh my word. The variety of things Ayton can do is unbelievable. Each of the following things happened in a span of two minutes:
- Caught a pass on the low block and drop-stepped for an effortless dunk that led the color commentator to say, "That looked like me on my Nerf hoop at home."
- Caught a pass roughly 15 feet from the hoop and backed his defender down with three dribbles before spinning baseline for a fadeaway that hit nothing but net.
- Was the first man down the floor on a fast break and darn near converted on a layup while running at full speed.
- On a baseline inbounds play immediately following the aforementioned near layup, he caught a lob pass for a thunderous dunk.
All this from a guy who has already attempted six three-pointers this season and was advertised as a stretch 5 coming out of high school. He has a double-double in all three games, and it seems like he can get them anytime he wants.
Marvin Bagley III, Duke
2 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Elon: 25 points, 10 rebounds, one steal
Nov. 11 vs. Utah Valley: 24 points, 10 rebounds, two steals
Nov. 14 vs. Michigan State: Four points, six rebounds, one block (played 10 minutes due to eye injury)
Per 40: 29.9 points, 14.6 rebounds, 2.3 steals
Super-Early Grade: A+
Though Marvin Bagley III's time on the big stage was limited after Javin DeLaurier accidentally gouged him in the eye on an attempted rebound, he was unstoppable while he was able to see. Going up against a front line of Jaren Jackson Jr., Nick Ward and several capable reserves 6'8" or taller, Bagley was supposed to be challenged in the Champions Classic.
He wasn't.
The 18-year-old phenom grabbed five offensive rebounds in just 10 minutes and made it look like Duke might win the game by 30. His instincts and his second-jump ability are incredible. He could just about average a double-double without Duke even running any offense for him, because of his propensity for scoring on putback dunks, tips and jumpers.
But Duke does call his number a ton. Bagley attempted 35 shots in his first two games, making 23 of them. We didn't get to see much of his face-up game against the Spartans, but it's definitely there. (One of his two buckets on the night did come on a Eurostep that probably still has scouts drooling.)
Based on his strength and the full arsenal that we've already seen, it's hard to believe this guy is supposed to be a senior in high school. Provided his eye heals quickly, Bagley has to be considered the early front-runner for National Freshman of the Year.
Mohamed Bamba, Texas
3 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern State: 15 points, eight rebounds, four blocks
Nov. 14 vs. New Hampshire: DNP (concussion)
Per 40: 26.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, 7.0 blocks, 3.5 assists
Super-Early Grade: B-
This was the toughest grade to produce. Mohamed Bamba only played in one game, and he did so against what is typically one of the least efficient and highest-paced defenses in the country.
While it wouldn't be fair to completely disregard Bamba's performance against Northwestern State, it's worth noting that the Demons lost by 15 to something called LeTourneau two nights later, including allowing one player to amass 32 points and eight rebounds. Bamba led the team in scoring in the game, but seven Longhorns finished in double figures in the 105-59 beatdown.
What is noteworthy, though, are the blocks.
There are a lot of things Northwestern State has struggled with in the 2010s, but it has consistently been better than the national average in offensive block percentage—usually by a significant margin. Per Sports Reference, Bamba became just the fourth player in the past eight seasons to have at least 15 points and four blocks in a game against the Demons, joining Shawn Long, Jarrey Foster and Michale Kyser.
With Bamba's 7'9" wingspan, this should be just the first of many games with at least four blocks. In fact, I would guess we'll see a points, rebounds and blocks triple-double from Bamba before the year ends—provided he makes a full recovery from the concussion that kept him out of action Tuesday.
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Wendell Carter Jr., Duke
4 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Elon: Eight points, six rebounds, two blocks
Nov. 11 vs. Utah Valley: 12 points, seven rebounds, four assists, four blocks, three steals
Nov. 14 vs. Michigan State: 12 points, 12 rebounds, one block
Per 40: 18.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, 4.0 blocks, 4.0 assists, 1.7 steals
Super-Early Grade: A-
Sadly, the big story on Wendell Carter Jr. following his first week of college hoops was the elbow he threw in the second half of the first Champions Classic game. He wasn't ejected from the game—somehow, it wasn't even a flagrant foul, but rather a live-ball technical, whatever the heck the difference is—but if we've learned anything in the past few years, it's that a Duke player extending a limb in an attempt to harm or hinder an opponent will always be controversial.
Aside from that chicken wing to Ben Carter's jaw, though, Wendell Carter had a solid first three games.
Carter is definitely the odd man out on offense thus far. Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr. are the perimeter shooters. Trevon Duval is the playmaker. Marvin Bagley III is the dude who can do just about anything he sets his mind to. And Carter is just kind of there. By my count, nearly 40 percent of his field-goal attempts have come from putbacks on offensive rebounds. Duke hasn't quite figured out how to run offense through him yet.
But when a guy is averaging four offensive rebounds per game and nearly seven per 40 minutes, there's no real need to draw anything up for him. Similar to Rico Gathers at Baylor a few years ago, just tell him that missed shots are passes and he can get his buckets by tracking them down. Maybe throw him the occasional alley-oop to reward his efforts and keep the defense honest.
In addition to his prowess on the offensive glass, Carter is a menace in the defensive paint, already blocking seven shots from the back line of the 2-3 zone. He has admirably filled the role of "More Imposing Amile Jefferson," and it's going to be fun when his face-up game (three three-point attempts against Utah Valley) rounds into form.
Hamidou Diallo, Kentucky
5 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Utah Valley: 18 points, five rebounds, three assists
Nov. 12 vs. Vermont: 16 points, three assists
Nov. 14 vs. Kansas: 14 points, five rebounds, four assists
Per 40: 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists
Super-Early Grade: B+
If nothing else, Hamidou Diallo has shown assertiveness on a roster that is otherwise lacking in leadership and experience.
He's averaging 18.8 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes, which is even more than Malik Monk's mark (18.3) last year. But he is also tied for the team lead in assists, so it's not like he's a black hole where ball movement goes to die. Maybe it was the semester he spent practicing with the Wildcats last season, but he just has a knack for knowing when it's time to make something happen.
In the first two games of the season, he was clearly the MVP for the Wildcats. So much so, in fact, that even after a bit of a lackluster showing against Kansas, he's still leading the team in win shares per 40 minutes, per Sports Reference. Diallo's windmill dunk against Utah Valley was a key early part of an 18-0 second-half run, and it was largely because he got into foul trouble against Vermont that the Kentucky offense went ice cold down the stretch.
Two concerns, though, that keep him at a B+. First, for a shooting guard, he's not a great shot. Diallo is just 3-of-9 from three-point range. That's not a dreadful percentage, but the lack of volume is a bit strange. Second, he hasn't shown much of anything on the defensive end, which is disappointing for a 6'5" guard with a nearly 7'0" wingspan.
He doesn't need to be both a knock-down shooter and a lockdown defender, but he does probably need to become one or the other if he expects to be a first-round pick in 2018.
Trevon Duval, Duke
6 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Elon: Eight points, eight assists, three steals
Nov. 11 vs. Utah Valley: 15 points, 12 assists, three steals
Nov. 14 vs. Michigan State: 17 points, 10 assists, six steals
Per 40: 18.2 points, 13.6 assists, 5.5 steals (7.6 assists per turnover)
Super-Early Grade: B+
This grade is admittedly harsh, because Trevon Duval's assist and steal numbers are nothing short of phenomenal. Tyus Jones only had two games with 10 or more assists and two games with four or more steals in his entire 39-game season with the Blue Devils, yet that's what Duval is averaging through three games. In those regards, Duval has been everything Duke could have possibly wanted from its point guard, and then some.
However, the guy cannot shoot.
Per ESPN.com's new-this-year shot charts in the play-by-play logs, Duval is 0-of-10 on shots taken from outside the paint and 3-of-16 on everything other than layups and dunks. He's also 4-of-8 from the free-throw line.
Yes, that's a minuscule sample size, but it echoes the concerns that scouts had about his game at the AAU level. And it's not like he has been unlucky with jumpers rimming out. He barely even grazed the iron on a couple of his shots against Michigan State.
That's OK. No one's perfect, and November is the time to figure out strong suits and limitations. But if his shooting woes continue, Duke could have some difficulty creating space on offense when opponents start sagging off Duval. Also, in NBA draft circles, his inability to shoot will be one of the most oft-discussed topics throughout the season, since he's a borderline lottery pick.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State
7 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. North Florida: 13 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks, three assists, two steals
Nov. 14 vs. Duke: 19 points, seven rebounds, three blocks
Per 40: 27.8 points, 17.4 rebounds, 6.1 blocks, 3.5 assists, 2.6 steals
Super-Early Grade: A
Outside of NBA draft circles, Jaren Jackson Jr. was somewhat of a national afterthought coming into the season.
Yes, he was a top-10 recruit, but there was a significant gap between him and the consensus candidates for the No. 1 draft pick—Marvin Bagley III, Michael Porter Jr., Deandre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba. Even in conversations about Michigan State, he was, at best, the second player mentioned after Miles Bridges. Usually, though, Jackson was third or fourth on that list because Nick Ward's conditioning and Cassius Winston's turnovers were the two biggest X-factors to potentially make or break this season for the Spartans.
Safe to say that's no longer the case.
Despite losing to Duke in the Champions Classic, Jackson was the most impressive freshman on any of the four teams participating in the event—though, that maybe wouldn't have been true if Bagley had been able to play more than 10 minutes. Jackson impacted the game in so many ways, finishing the evening with three made three-pointers, three offensive rebounds and three blocks.
He was all over the box score in the first game, too. Aside from the form/arc on his perimeter shot, the lone concern is that—in the process of accumulating all those other stats—he ended up committing four fouls in each game, despite playing no more than 24 minutes in either one. Michigan State has more than enough depth to deal with it, but it'd be nice if he could play the final seven minutes of a game without fear of a DQ.
Kevin Knox, Kentucky
8 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Utah Valley: 12 points, six rebounds, four assists, four steals
Nov. 12 vs. Vermont: 11 points, eight rebounds
Nov. 14 vs. Kansas: 20 points, seven rebounds, two steals
Per 40: 15.8 points. 7.7 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 1.8 assists
Super-Early Grade: C+
Kevin Knox has been a bit of a mixed bag in the early going.
On the "pros" side of the checklist, his shot looked great against Kansas in the Champions Classic. He was the only Wildcat to make a three-pointer in the game, and he drained each of his first three attempts, including two on back-to-back possessions. Kentucky has been desperately lacking that perimeter shooter who can occasionally catch fire. Perhaps this was the start of Knox's ascension to that throne.
One other pro is his rebounding. The dude is 6'9", so maybe you'd expect more than seven rebounds per game. However, he's a small-ball 4 who's really playing the 3 with PJ Washington, Nick Richards, Sacha Killeya-Jones and Wenyen Gabriel handling most of the post work. Regardless of his height, it's impressive what he's doing on the glass, given the amount of time he spends on the perimeter on both ends of the floor.
But where was Knox in the first two games? He did drain a crucial three-pointer late against Vermont, but he shot 6-of-23 from the field against those lesser opponents. In terms of overall impact, he was one of the three worst players in Kentucky's eight-man rotation in both of those games. Had he also been a non-factor against the Jayhawks, he would have gotten a D- here, at best.
Knox could (and probably should) be the leader of the Wildcats. His three-point shooting over the course of the next month could determine their trajectory for the rest of the year. If he becomes the primary perimeter shooter, knocking down roughly three of eight triples per game, it'll help the rest of the offense fall in line. If not, I'll be curious to see what role he actually plays on this team and whether Kentucky can come anywhere close to living up to the preseason hype.
Michael Porter Jr., Missouri
9 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Iowa State: Two points, two rebounds (played two minutes)
Nov. 13 vs. Wagner: DNP (Leg injury)
Nov. 16 vs. Utah: DNP (Leg injury)
Super-Early Grade: F
Maybe a failing grade is too mean and we should give Michael Porter Jr. an "incomplete" instead. Either way, the first week of his college career has not gone according to plan.
The good news is his per-40 numbers are out of this world. Two points and two rebounds in two minutes of action makes for a darn fine ratio.
The bad news is we're talking about the possible No. 2 pick in the 2018 NBA draft playing just two minutes in three games.
Basically, all Porter had to do was get through this season without any major controversy and without raising any medical red flags and he would've been a lock for a top-10 pick. Even if he struggled to make an impact—similar to Skal Labissiere a couple of years ago—it would've been written off as a bad fit on a bad team and he would've been drafted based on his immense potential from high school.
Instead, Porter suffered a leg injury in pregame warm-ups the first game of the season. He played until the first whistle because Cuonzo Martin didn't want to take a technical foul for an illegal pregame substitution, but that was it. Per Alec Lewis and Will Jarvis of the Columbia Missourian, Porter wasn't even on the bench for Missouri's second game against Wagner. Instead, he spent the evening "in the team locker room because of comfort."
Per ESPN's Jeff Goodman, he didn't even travel with the team for Thursday night's game against Utah.
It's only one week. There's plenty of time for him to come back and wow us. Remember, Kyrie Irving only played 11 games in his college career before becoming the No. 1 overall pick. But the lack of information surrounding this injury is more than a bit concerning.
Collin Sexton, Alabama
10 of 10
Game Log
Nov. 10 vs. Memphis: DNP (Suspension)
Nov. 14 vs. Lipscomb: 22 points, five assists, two steals
Per 40: 32.6 points, 7.4 assists, 3.0 steals
Super-Early Grade: C
Collin Sexton was ruled ineligible for the first game of the season for a violation of NCAA rules. Though it was never explicitly stated that there was a connection to the ongoing FBI investigation hovering like a tornado cloud over this entire season, that's the assumption most made. Considering he was allowed to play in the second game, though, who knows? Whatever the cause, he missed one game and he was relatively solid in the other.
Sexton shot 7-of-10 from the field (5-of-12 from the free-throw line, though) for a game-high 22 points. He also tied for the team lead with five assists, offering a glimpse into his potential as the best lead guard in the country.
"Whatever (he did), that's what we need," Alabama head coach Avery Johnson said of Sexton, per Alex Byington of the Dothan Eagle. "I need a little animation, and emotion, pride, and whatever they call it—swagger—I call it confidence, not arrogance."
Granted, Lipscomb wasn't expected to be much of a litmus test. Per KenPom's rankings, the Bisons are the second-worst team Alabama will face all season. (The worst will be Friday's game against Alabama A&M, so get ready for another big performance.) But the Crimson Tide got more of a challenge than they bargained for, as this was a one-point game early in the second half. Sexton played almost no part in extending the lead to a point of comfort, but he did hit a few daggers in the last four minutes to help make the final score (86-64) look like this was a blowout.
We'll get a better feel for Sexton by early December, as Alabama faces BYU, Minnesota, UCF, Rhode Island and Arizona in the next four weeks. For now, though, we like what we see. We just wish we could've seen more of it.
Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports. Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports Reference.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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