MLB MVP 2017: Final Odds and Predictions for AL and NL Awards

MLB's Most Valuable Player races will spark heated debate about value's true definition.

If home runs still carry significant weight, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will respectively take home the American League and National League honors. Then again, Jose Altuve won his fourth straight AL batting title, and Joey Votto topped MLB's on-base percentage leaderboard.

Voters who will only acknowledge someone from a playoff team will have picked Paul Goldschmidt over Stanton and Votto, even though he's the least qualified candidate of the NL trio.

Some would argue choosing the player with a highest WAR is also a lazy shortcut. That's not a clear path for voters anyway, as FanGraphs and Baseball Reference calculated different leaders in each league.

There's no easy answer to who deserves either league's MVP hardware. It's also unclear who will take home the distinctions on Thursday night. With both awards up for grabs, let's handicap the odds for each race's finalists, courtesy of Vegas Insider. 

American League MVP Odds

Jose Altuve: 1-10

Aaron Judge: 5-1

Jose Ramirez: 30-1

National League MVP Odds

Giancarlo Stanton: 1-1

Paul Goldschmidt: 37-20

Joey Votto: 3-1

American League

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Although their stature frames Altuve as the David to Judge's Goliath, the Houston Astros superstar is no dark horse. He appeared to lock down the AL honor before the New York Yankees superstar caught fire near the finish line.

Now it's a tighter race than the odds indicate with no clear victor. Jose Ramirez trailing both for the third spot, however, looks like a safe certainty. With a 6.6 fWAR (FanGraphs) and 6.9 rWAR (Baseball Reference), he trailed the other candidates considerably on each site. 

He didn't lead the Cleveland Indians in WAR on either platform, trailing AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber. 

MLB already ruled out Kluber when whittling the field to three, so it's a two-man contest between Altuve and Judge. While Altuve's 8.3 rWAR tops Judge's 8.1, the Yankees outfielder boasts a 8.2 fWAR to the second baseman's 7.5.

Altuve hit .346, stole 32 bases and recorded 84 strikeouts to Judge's MLB-worst 208. Yet the Yankees slugger set a rookie record with 52 home runs. He placed second in the AL behind Mike Trout—who missed the cut on account of playing just 114 games—in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and weighted runs created plus (wRC+).

And remember: Altuve's superior postseason for the World Series champion does not factor into the deliberation.

Judge hit .228 after the All-Star break, but he still cemented a .938 second-half OPS on account of a 21.2 walk percentage and 15 September homers.

As broken down by MLB.com's Richard Justice, Judge was stellar aside from a short summer funk:

On the other hand, Altuve's performance never wavered. The 27-year-old endured no prolonged slump for the 101-61 Astros. He hit .337/.400/.459 in 110 plate appearances identified as high leverage by Baseball Reference. Judge batted .219/.361/.500 with a 32.0 strikeout rate in those same situations.

Neutral, reasonable observers should not form an angry mob over either outcome. While this writer gives Judge the slight edge, it's likely enough voters are peeved by his strikeouts and swayed by Altuve's high average and Houston's superior record. The size discrepancy also creates an underdog narrative that will net the 5'6" superstar a few extra polling points.

Prediction: Altuve 

National League

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Although the focus is now magnified on Goldschmidt, Stanton and Votto, this was the most wide-open MVP race in recent memory.

Having tied Stanton with an NL-best 6.9 fWAR, Anthony Rendon likely at least garnered some top-three ballot designations. Kris Bryant improved his batting average and on-base percentage from last year's MVP campaign. Charlie Blackmon led the majors with 137 runs scored.

In a year with no standout choice, someone from a losing team may receive the prize. Stanton kept the Miami Marlins' playoff hopes alive longer than expected by belting 25 of his 59 home runs from July 17 to Sept. 1. The Cincinnati Reds finished last in the NL Central, but perhaps they would have instead been the worst team in baseball without Votto hitting .320/.454/.578.

Goldschmidt presents a fallback option on a contender who matched Votto's 36 long balls while compiling more runs (117) and RBI (120). Yet he benefited from a hitter-friendly park, submitting a 1.082 OPS at Chase Field and .852 OPS on the road.

Blackmon likely missed the final cut because he dominated in Coors Field. Goldschmidt's 142 wRC+, which normalizes park factors when measuring a hitter's offensive worth, trails Votto's 165 and Stanton's 156.

Even Tommy Pham—who at least deserves a prominent spot on the final top-10 ballot—posted a higher wRC+ (148) and fWAR (5.9) then the Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman.

Goldschmidt should not win, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will not win. After all, he claimed the NL's Silver Slugger Award at first base over Votto simply because he played in a favorable environment with a superior supporting cast.

The decision caught ESPN's Buster Olney off guard:

Despite drawing 51 more walks (134) than strikeouts (83), Votto is likely to again get overlooked because he didn't score (106) or drive in (100) as many runs as his contemporaries. The 2010 MVP called 2017 "the best year of my career" to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon as the season expired, but said he doesn't know if the writers will agree. 

"It's a highly subjective vote, and I say that with as much appreciation as I can because I've won one before," Votto said. "As far as winning the award, I'm not sure, but I did everything I can to play as well as I could, to play every day, to improve facets of my game that I promised I would."

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Even if no candidate stands out with a Trout-like package of all-around dominance, Stanton's 59 homers—the most in a single season since Sammy Sosa's 64 and Barry Bonds' record-setting 73 in 2001—certainly demand attention.

For all the statistical breakthroughs, everyone still loves dingers. Some voters also prefer a strong finish, and he procured a .702 slugging percentage after the All-Star break.

It's another showdown of two contrasting, yet equally remarkable player profiles. Home runs make bigger waves than walks, so Stanton will enter a winter of rampant trade speculation with the grand prize on his mantle.

Prediction: Stanton

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.