College Football Odds Week 10: Picks, Predictions and Spread for Top 25 Teams

This college football season has delivered plenty of great games and shocking upsets thus far, but Week 10 appears to be the best of them all. 

In all, there are seven matchups that pit teams ranked in the first College Football Playoff rankings against one another. Twelve ranked teams will find themselves in a road test.

The slate just feels like a setup for a massive kickoff to November—a month that always shifts the playoff race dramatically heading into conference championships. 

There are big matchups in every major conference and a few teams who should be on upset alert. It's going to be a wild ride on Saturday. Here's a look at the complete slate along with three games to watch. 

Spread info provided by OddsShark; author's picks against the spread in bold.

Friday, November 3

No. 23 Memphis at Tulsa (+12)

Saturday, November 4

No. 7 Penn State at No. 24 Michigan State (+8.5)

No. 9 Wisconsin at Indiana (+12.5)

No. 14 Auburn at Texas A&M (+15)

UMass at No. 16 Mississippi State (-28)

South Carolina at No. 1 Georgia (-24)

Wake Forest at No. 3 Notre Dame (-14)

No. 4 Clemson at No. 20 NC State (+8)

No. 6 Ohio State at Iowa (+18)

No. 15 Iowa State at West Virginia (-2.5)

No. 21 Stanford at No. 25 Washington State (-2)

No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State (-3)

Texas at No. 8 TCU (-7)

No. 18 UCF at SMU (+14)

No. 19 LSU at No. 2 Alabama (-21)

No. 13 Virginia Tech at No. 10 Miami (+2.5)

Oregon at No. 12 Washington (-18.5)

No. 22 Arizona at No. 17 USC (-7.5)

No. 4 Clemson at No. 20 NC State

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Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers had to love the first batch of rankings from the Committee. Clemson got the nod as the No. 4 team over a group of worthy one-loss contenders, showing that the group acknowledges what the team has done despite a road loss to Syracuse. 

On Saturday they'll have another chance to add a positive to the resume against the No. 20 NC State Wolfpack. 

NC State is coming off its biggest letdown of the season. The Wolfpack went into their game against now No. 3 Notre Dame with the No. 6 best rushing defense in the nation and the Irish still rolled for 318 yards on the ground. 

Regardless, NC State is still a team that possess talent on the defensive front. Their ability to contain dual threat quarterbacks remains intact. Brandon Wimbush had just 21 yards on seven carries. Earlier this year they held Lamar Jackson to 73 yards on 19 carries. 

That bodes well for NC State's ability to defend Clemson. The Tigers finally have a healthy Kelly Bryant after the dynamic quarterback was banged up against Syracuse, but he'll be tested. 

The only weakness the Tigers have shown on the defensive side of the ball is in the secondary. It isn't much of a weakness, they are 24th in the nation in yards allowed per game, but it's what Syracuse had success doing. 

NC State quarterback Ryan Finley is coming off his worst performance of the season. His first interception of the season was returned for a touchdown and broke the game open for the Irish. However, he's completing 71 percent of his passes with six touchdowns to no interceptions at home this season. 

Finley should find enough success in the air, and the North Carolina State front should recover enough to make this one an interesting game down the stretch. Clemson ultimately wins, but not before the Wolfpack have everyone's attention. 

Prediction: Clemson 28, NC State 23

No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State

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Historically, Bedlam has been one of college football's more lopsided rivalries. The Sooners hold a convincing 86-18-7 edge in the overall series, but that hasn't stopped the game from being in the national spotlight recently and this year. 

As Oklahoma State blog Pistols Firing notes, this has been a big game the last few years because of the success of these two programs:

That hasn't changed this year as this game could have big Playoff implications once again. As the highest-rated Big 12 team, the Sooners are the best shot to get into the Final Four. 

Oklahoma State—on the other hand—could pick up the kind of win on Saturday that the committee seems to weigh heavily when submitting their rankings. The Cowboys are 7-1, but their signature win right now is probably a 13-10 overtime win against an unranked Texas team. 

A win over a top-five team in the committee's eyes, combined with the TCU loss last week, puts the Pokes right back into the thick of things. 

The matchup is nice on Mike Gundy's squad, too. The Sooners have shown repeatedly this season that their defense is at the very best suspect and at the very worst a personal affront to those who believe that touchdowns should have to be earned by the offense. 

Oklahoma is ranked 73rd in yards allowed per play, while Oklahoma State is 19th. The Sooners have held their own against the run, holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry, but give up a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt. 

That's good for 103rd in the country. 

So far that porous pass defense has been bailed out by an offense that can outscore anyone, but the Cowboys offense is the best they've seen. Mason Rudolph recently became the most prolific quarterback in school history, per ESPN Stats & Info:

As special as Baker Mayfield may be, he can't continue to be counted on to bail out his defense every week. He couldn't outduel Kyle Kempt against the Iowa State Cyclones, and being asked to outdo Mason Rudolph is going to be a tall order. 

Prediction: Oklahoma State 49, Oklahoma 42

No. 13 Virginia Tech at No. 10 Miami

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Few fanbases were probably more upset at the College Football Playoff rankings than the Miami Hurricanes'.

Mark Richt's squad is undefeated through nine weeks of college football, yet they found themselves rounding out the top 10, not the top four. That's because the Hurricanes have all the hallmarks of a team whose luck will eventually run out, playing a weak schedule thus far that has been marked by close calls. 

Last week's 24-19 win over the 1-8 North Carolina Tar Heels was the perfect example of that trend. 

“That seems to be the story of the year, and it’s something that’s unacceptable, honestly,” Miami receiver Braxton Berrios said of the Hurricanes’ close calls, per Gene Wang of the Washington Post. “We’ve got to start firing on all cylinders soon, or it’s really going to catch up to us. Luckily the defense is playing its tails off.”

The schedule gets significantly more difficult with the Hokies rolling into town. Being in the same division the Hokies have played a similar schedule, but the results have been different. For instance, the Hokies beat the Tar Heels 59-7. 

Obviously, the transitive property doesn't always work out, but there is a definite trend in the way the two teams have been playing. 

The Hokies have historically had a knack for pulling off upsets on the road in big spots, too:

This should be a defensive contest. Both teams boast top-20 defenses, but it's going to come down to who can do more on offense. Right now, that appears to be the Hokies, who averaged 35.8 points per game in October while the Hurricanes averaged just 25. 

If there's an undefeated team going down in Week 10, the Hurricanes are the prime suspects. 

Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Miami 21