NFL1000: Doug Farrar's Week 9 QB Rankings
Remember over a year ago, in the wake of Peyton Manning's retirement and Tom Brady's apparent decline, when people were worried about the future of the quarterback position in the NFL? The narrative went that because of the advent of option offenses in college, quarterbacks would not be prepared for the next level, and we might have a rough patch of quarterback play.
If one game this season put that theory to rest, it was Seattle's 41-38 win over the Houston Texans. Russell Wilson was magnificent for the Seahawks, but Texans rookie Deshaun Watson gained the respect of the league's best scoring defense by riddling the Seahawks with precise downfield passes and energetic, effective runs. The performances of Wilson and Watson—they combined to become the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw over 400 yards and four touchdowns, and add at least 30 yards rushing, in the same game—put them at the top of this week's quarterback rankings.
Philly's Carson Wentz, the second-year man who had the top spot last week after a string of marvelous performances, wasn't quite as brilliant against the San Francisco 49ers, but he's still near the top spot, and his ascent is a primary reason the Eagles have the NFL's best record.
It's an exciting time for young quarterbacks in the NFL, and another young quarterback looks to get a long-awaited starting shot with the trade to San Francisco of New England Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo. Of course, Garoppolo was deemed expendable because Tom Brady appears to want to play forever.
As much as things move in the NFL, some things never change.
Our weekly quarterback rankings are decided and written by NFL1000 lead scout Doug Farrar and quarterbacks scout Mark Schofield. Farrar evaluates all NFC quarterbacks, and Schofield does the same with the AFC quarterbacks.
Farrar and Schofield combine tape analysis and advanced metrics to give you a sense of which quarterbacks are trending up, which are trending down and which are better or worse than their reputations might imply.
The rankings are based on recent performance, of course, but they are also adjusted for opponent, factor in the talent around the quarterback and consider the player's history over the last few years.
Good news for some, bad news for others. Here are the NFL1000 quarterback rankings ahead of Week 9.
Notable Omissions
1 of 28
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jay Cutler, Miami Dolphins
Brett Hundley, Green Bay Packers
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Drew Stanton, Arizona Cardinals
In the AFC, Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles were off this weekend, as the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars were on their bye weeks. Jay Cutler was sidelined with a chest injury for the Miami Dolphins. In the NFC, Brett Hundley of the Green Bay Packers, Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams, Eli Manning of the New York Giants and Carson Palmer replacement Drew Stanton of the Arizona Cardinals were all on byes.
The bye week/injured quarterbacks will return to the rankings next week, but as we're ranking based on performance, they're excluded during their byes/injuries.
27. C.J. Beathard, San Francisco 49ers
2 of 28
Last Week: 27
Don't look now, but we might be just a few days away from a game that may set the quarterback position back a good half-century when the Cardinals, led by backup Stanton, take on the 49ers, led by rookie C.J. Beathard.
Since taking over for the benched Brian Hoyer, Beathard has done his level best in aggressively unfavorable circumstances, and he's made it clear when he's able that he does have some potential. But against the Eagles' vicious defense, Beathard had absolutely no chance. According to Pro Football Focus, he was pressured on 27 of his 45 dropbacks—a ridiculous 60 percent—and it would be hard to expect any middle-round rookie to succeed under that much heat.
Beathard held up as well as he could, completing 17 of 36 passes for 167 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He also led the 49ers with 40 rushing yards on six scrambles. Head coach Kyle Shanahan dialed in a lot of pre-snap motion to give Beathard a better look at coverage and more advantageous route openings, but much of the time, Beathard looked overwhelmed by the speed of Philly's defense and the fact that it could so often get pressure with its front four, which allowed for more advanced coverages. Beathard frequently threw out of time with his receivers even on short passes, and he didn't complete a deep ball all day.
Both of Beathard's interceptions came in the second quarter. The first pick came with 9:47 left, when he threw a quick pass behind Aldrick Robinson. The ball went up in the air off Robinson's hands, and safety Rodney McLeod picked it up. The second came with 1:38 remaining—here, Pierre Garcon ran an out route to the right sideline, and Beathard didn't pick up that cornerback Jalen Mills was ready to jump the route. Mills returned that one 37 yards for a touchdown. Beathard's passing touchdown was really a handoff—a designed shovel pass to running back Matt Breida.
The news, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, that the 49ers have flipped a second-round pick to the Patriots in exchange for Garoppolo is a clear indicator that Shanahan now knows Beathard isn't yet ready for prime time. We'll see what Garoppolo is able to do in this offense, whenever he's ready to take the field. At the very least, he'd make next Sunday's game a bit more interesting.
26. Matt Moore, Miami Dolphins
3 of 28
Last Week: 19
Last week in this column, a self-described "quarterback expert" made the argument that Matt Moore was likely the better choice for the Dolphins going forward at the quarterback position.
So...yeah. About that.
The mistakes did not come early on Thursday night, but they did come from Moore, and when they did, they were costly. Early in the fourth quarter, Moore threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by linebacker C.J. Mosley. On the play in question, the linebacker faked a blitz and then dropped into an underneath zone, and Moore threw the football to him.
That was not the only pick-six Moore threw on the night. Later in the game, the quarterback saw soft coverage on the outside from cornerback Jimmy Smith and threw a quick hitch route believing that the soft cushion would allow for an easy completion. But Smith read the quarterback's eyes the whole way and broke perfectly on the throw, stepping in front of the intended receiver and returning it 50 yards for another Baltimore Ravens touchdown.
Those were not the only mistakes Moore made on Thursday night, but they were the most glaring. On his first pass attempt, Moore looked for Jarvis Landry on a post route off play action. But his throw was high and tipped by the receiver, and could easily have been intercepted. Midway through the first quarter, Moore had Landry deep on a vertical route, but the pass was thrown well out of bounds, another missed opportunity for the Dolphins on the night.
After the game, Dolphins head coach Adam Gase stated that the Miami offense is the worst in football. With Cutler slated to come back next week, it seems likely that he would return to the lineup. But given my recommendations in the past week for Miami, perhaps I am not the person to ask.
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25. Ryan Mallett, Baltimore Ravens
4 of 28
Last Week: N/A
After Joe Flacco was knocked out of the game on a brutal hit from linebacker Kiko Alonso, head coach John Harbaugh turned to veteran Ryan Mallett to take the snaps for Baltimore. The former Arkansas Razorback entered the game late in the second quarter with the Ravens already enjoying a 13-point lead and facing a 1st-and-goal at the Miami 5-yard line. Shortly thereafter, Mallett found tight end Benjamin Watson for a short touchdown pass on a flood concept, and the rout was on.
Mallett was not asked to do too much for the Ravens offense while in the game. He attempted only seven passes, completing three of those for 20 yards, including the touchdown to his tight end. On a few of his throws, the ball placement was off, such as on a slant route to Breshad Perriman that was behind the wide receiver or a curl route to Jeremy Maclin that was off target as well. But later in the game, Mallett threw a seam route to Watson that was placed well, though the tight end could not bring it in.
Provided he is healthy, Flacco is the best option for the Ravens at quarterback on the roster. While the current Baltimore starting QB has been struggling in 2017, Mallett does not appear to be any sort of an improvement over him. The Ravens face a trip to Tennessee to take on the Titans, who are coming off their bye week, and regardless of who is taking the snaps for them, a victory is needed to try to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North.
24. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
5 of 28
Last Week: 31
The most notable play in Mitchell Trubisky's day against the New Orleans Saints was a touchdown that was taken away. With 5:55 left in the third quarter, Trubisky tried a long fade into the end zone to tight end Zach Miller, who got tied up with safety Rafael Bush. Miller's left knee bent at a horrible angle, and the vascular injuries to his leg were so severe, doctors were tasked to save his leg. Fortunately, that procedure seems to have gone well.
As for the rest of Trubisky's day, he was unleashed a bit by his coaching staff—after throwing a total of 23 passes in his last two starts, the rookie completed 14 of 32 passes for 164 yards, no touchdowns (the Miller catch was reversed on review) and an interception. Trubisky also ran three times for 53 yards. He threw a beautiful 45-yard pass to receiver Tre McBride in Chicago's second offensive drive of the day on a deep over route, but other than that, Trubisky struggled with accuracy and consistency.
It's clear at this point in his career that Trubisky is still learning to read defenses at the NFL level, and even when his coaching staff gives him favorable route concepts for easy reads, he doesn't always act on them. This issue will naturally be exacerbated when he's playing a defense like that of New Orleans, which has been so good in man coverage and pattern reading of late. His 2nd-and-11 throwaway late in the second quarter was but one example—Trubisky had McBride wide open underneath on an inside crosser but decided to wait and take a deep throw, which never materialized.
His game-clinching interception to rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore with 1:22 left in the game was another example. Trubisky had Kendall Wright open underneath on a similar concept—a receiver running a comeback against two vertical routes—but he tried to hit McBride downfield, overthrew him, and the ball went straight to Lattimore.
It may be that the Bears coaching staff, specifically offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, is giving Trubisky the reads he needs to get in a rhythm, and he's simply not taking advantage. That's what it looks like, and as long as that's the case, Trubisky will fall short as a force multiplier in his offense. He's not yet at the point where he can make the throws he wants to make on a consistent basis.
23. DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
6 of 28
Last Week: 33
Entering the Cleveland Browns' game in London against the Minnesota Vikings, many football observers were critical about head coach Hue Jackson's handling of his rookie quarterback. But as the game unfolded at Twickenham Stadium, it was apparent the coach had a clear game plan once more for DeShone Kizer.
After the coach advised his quarterback to run for his life to avoid Everson Griffen, the Browns looked to the quick passing game to neutralize the defensive end. In addition, the Browns started using an uptempo approach to open the game and also incorporated more motion and shifting in their offense.
It was not a standout performance from a statistical standpoint, as Kizer completed 18 of 34 passes for 179 yards, but it might have been Kizer's best game of his rookie campaign. One of the signs to watch when a young quarterback enters the league is when he can start making those timing, rhythm and anticipation throws from the pocket. That is a sign the game is starting to speed up for the young quarterback.
On a 2nd-and-8 play early in the second quarter, Kizer found wide receiver Bryce Treggs on a stop/curl route where the football came out well before Treggs made his cut. While just one single play, it is a sign that Kizer is starting to develop at the position.
Another good sign for him was the drive before halftime that ended with his quarterback sneak to help give the Browns a 13-9 lead. On that series, Kizer found Ricardo Louis on a vertical route where the wide receiver made a great adjustment for the catch. Kizer also found running back Isaiah Crowell on an improvisation play, showing good vision to find his running back and good athleticism to keep the play alive in the pocket.
The Browns failed to pull out the victory and fell to 0-8 on the season. But if Cleveland fans are looking for silver linings this week, the slightly improved play from their rookie quarterback is a good place to start.
22. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
7 of 28
Last Week: 24
Joe Flacco entered Thursday night's game against the Miami Dolphins on pace for a historically poor season, but he was enjoying one of his better games of the year before getting knocked out on a controversial hit by Kiko Alonso.
Flacco's best play of the day came on a 3rd-and-4 at the Miami 34-yard line. Flacco lofted a perfectly thrown vertical route to Jeremy Maclin along the left sideline for a touchdown pass. That play came on a well-designed fake smoke screen, where Flacco first looked to the quick screen and then downfield for Maclin before dropping in the perfect throw.
However, that play was overshadowed by Flacco's concussion shortly thereafter. Flacco scrambled and slid after picking the first down, but he was blasted by linebacker Kiko Alonso. The vicious hit knocked the quarterback out of the game and enraged the entire Baltimore team, who quickly came to the defense of their injured leader.
Despite finishing 10 of 15 for 101 yards and the touchdown to Maclin, Flacco does remain on pace for a poor season. Right now he remains 31st in the league with an ANY/A of only 3.62. That puts him above the previous NFL low of 3.50, but not by much. If he can return to action against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, he'll get a chance to face a defense that is surrendering 229.3 yards per game through the air, 14th most in the league. That might be enough to push Flacco further away from the NFL's version of the Mendoza Line.
21. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
8 of 28
Last Week: 26
The Indianapolis Colts fell to 2-6 on the season after their 24-23 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. It was their third straight loss, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett once again played well but made one mistake late that sealed his team's fate. Brissett completed 25 of 39 passes for 223 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but a late Carlos Dunlap interception was returned for a touchdown that gave the Bengals the lead in the closing minutes.
On the positive side, Brissett continues to show a great relationship with tight end Jack Doyle. Brissett targeted his TE 14 times on Sunday, and Doyle hauled in 12 of them for 121 yards and a touchdown. The TD play was an outside route along the boundary in the end zone, and Brissett put the ball in a perfect spot for his tight end for the score.
The quarterback also led a scoring drive late in the first half to get the Colts a field goal. That was highlighted by a perfect throw along the sideline to wide receiver Kamar Aiken on a smash concept, while a roughing the passer penalty on Carl Lawson helped too.
On the negative side, Brissett took four sacks. On a few occasions, he was slow to make up his mind in the pocket, which allowed the pass rush to get home and finish plays in the backfield. Brissett can get through full-field reads quickly, and he did so on a number of plays Sunday, but there were times he had open receivers and did not pull the trigger.
Given that Andrew Luck is still struggling with his shoulder, Indianapolis will likely start Brissett for the rest of the season. We have seen development from the second-year quarterback over the course of his season, but right now the Colts need to play perfect football to win, and Sunday was yet another example of that.
20. Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos
9 of 28
Last Week: 18
The Denver Broncos got off to a very poor start Monday night against the Kansas City Chiefs with a three-and-out, and their quarterback did not help after that drive. Trevor Siemian threw two first-half interceptions, the first on a vertical route in the direction of Jeff Heuerman that was intercepted by Marcus Peters.
Read that sentence again. Siemian challenged Marcus Peters on a vertical route to his backup tight end. The pass was left inside as well, making it an easy interception for the Chiefs' best cornerback.
Later in the first half, Siemian rolled to his right and had the first down marker in front of him, but rather than take the easy gain, he attempted a deep ball to Jordan Taylor and was intercepted by safety Ron Parker.
But relying on the running game and their defense, the Broncos clawed their way back into the game. After a Devontae Booker touchdown run that saw the team's own Twitter account poke fun at itself, Denver had a chance to tie the 20-13 game on its next drive. But Siemian escaped pressure on a 3rd-and-4 and never found a receiver, and on fourth down he forced a throw that was broken up with a big hit from linebacker Derrick Johnson. Later in the fourth quarter, Siemian attempted a throw back over the middle late in the play, and it was intercepted by cornerback Kenneth Acker to end any chance of a comeback. Jon Gruden in the booth said it all: "That's unacceptable."
We have spoken a lot about ceilings regarding Siemian and the Denver offense this season, and Monday night was yet another example of the issue. When the run game and play-action passing attack are clicking, Siemian can be effective. But when they are forced into clear passing situations or they need Siemian to shoulder the load, the Broncos can struggle.
19. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10 of 28
Last Week: 9
With all the talent around him, and all the talent he has, there's no question Jameis Winston's season has been disappointing. Part of the regression that has the Bucs at 2-5 is a product of Winston's seemingly incurable faith in his own ability to make impossible throws into tight windows, but against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, it was more about the fact Winston was clearly in pain. He had already been playing with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, and as the Panthers' estimable defense batted him around, Winston saw fewer and fewer options.
In a 17-3 embarrassment, Winston completed 21 of 38 passes for 210 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, losing a fumble as well. He attempted four deep balls and connected on none of them, and he was never able to get a consistent aerial game going. With linebacker Luke Kuechly back on the field after missing time in the NFL's concussion protocol, Carolina's defense was more advanced and less forgiving, and Winston paid the price. His first pick was off a tipped pass at the line, but his second was on a throw to tight end Cameron Brate in which Kuechly faked an A-gap blitz look pre-snap and dropped back to jump the route. Winston didn't see it.
It's not known whether Winston will practice this week, and the Buccaneers have the suddenly ravenous Saints defense to deal with next Sunday. Head coach Dirk Koetter might be better off sitting Winston and starting Ryan Fitzpatrick in his place. Not that Winston should be benched on performance—things aren't yet at that level—but it's clear something isn't right with Tampa Bay's franchise quarterback.
18. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
11 of 28
Last Week: 17
Cam Newton helping his Panthers to a 17-3 win isn't as impressive when you take the season-long struggles of the Bucs' pass defense into context. Newton completed just 18 of 32 passes for 154 yards, one touchdown and one interception, though he did lead his team with 44 rushing yards. That's a problem in and of itself, but Newton's mechanics and deep inaccuracy are more alarming at this point.
The Panthers have asked Newton to work more from the pocket, as head coach Ron Rivera said they would in January, and Newton isn't a consistent pocket passer because his mechanics are irregular. This was clear once again when he tried to throw deep against the Bucs. He completed one of five passes of 20 air yards or more, and the incompletions showed a funky delivery in which Newton was not always throwing from his lower body up; he's inclined to fall back on his back foot a bit and throw with his upper body. He doesn't appear comfortable with this adaptive strategy, and as a result, the timing on these deep passes is off.
Moreover, he's trying to hit his two big receivers (Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess) on sideline routes in which his targets are evidently supposed to win physical jump-balls. But poor timing allows defenders to arrive to the ball before the receivers, which puts Newton's targets at a disadvantage. There could also be an element of miscommunication here, but the root result is that the timing is way off on Carolina's big passing plays.
It's still a mystery why the Panthers insist on making first-round running back Christian McCaffrey more of a power back (which he isn't) than the ideal outlet receiver with the ability to run multiple routes he showed he was at Stanford. What we know is what we see on the field, and in Cam Newton's case, it's a quarterback in transition leading a passing game that doesn't have all the moving parts working together.
17. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
12 of 28
Last Week: 11
The 3-4 Washington Redskins being decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball led to Kirk Cousins having to put too much of the game on his shoulders against the Eagles last Monday night. He desperately tried to out-duel Carson Wentz in a 34-24 loss, though Cousins showed a ton of courage against a great defense. Against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, Cousins was going against a team that leads with its running game and has an opportunistic defense with a sneaky knack for quarterback pressure. He completed 26 passes in 39 attempts for 263 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and he was sacked four times.
Cousins was actually pretty good under pressure against Dallas, completing seven of 11 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown when he had bodies around him. But he fumbled in the third quarter under duress from Tyrone Crawford when it was still a 14-13 game, and Demarcus Lawrence recovered the ball. A fourth-quarter interception return for a touchdown by safety Byron Jones was caused by a tipped pass at the line, and it put the game away. Even Cousins' one-yard touchdown pass could have been a problem: He threw the ball to Josh Doctson in the end zone as he was taken down, and had safety Xavier Woods not had his head turned, that could have been a pick.
Cousins is a good player, but with all the issues around him, it's tough to expect him to transcend it. That's not really who he is or what he does, and his performances should be taken in context.
16. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
13 of 28
Last Week: 14
With heavy rain falling at FedEx Field, Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan chose to take the ball out of Dak Prescott's hands for the most part against the Redskins, loading up on the run and giving Ezekiel Elliott 33 carries. Elliott responded well to this strategy, gaining 150 yards and scoring two rushing touchdowns. Prescott completed just 14 of 22 passes for 143 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions.
When he did throw the ball, Prescott showed a good sense of timing with the pressure around him, hitting his receivers in time on quick crossing routes. Prescott's pocket presence has improved in his second season, and with a regression in pass protection from his line overall, that's a crucial attribute. He was victimized by a few receiver drops in the second half as the weather got worse, though he overthrew Dez Bryant in the end zone on his one real touchdown opportunity in the fourth quarter, with Bryant covered by Josh Norman.
Prescott's performance in Dallas' 33-19 win wasn't emblematic of what he can do when the game plan is more reliant on him—he was asked to manage the game, and he didn't make any obvious mistakes. But with Elliott's six-game suspension back on after all kinds of legal travails, per Kate Hairopolous of the Dallas Morning News, more will be expected of Prescott, and he'll have to deliver to keep his team in the playoff chase.
15. Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings
14 of 28
Last Week: 22
The Minnesota Vikings moved to 6-2 with their 33-16 win over the Cleveland Browns in London, England, on Sunday morning, and the NFC North leaders are 4-2 in games Case Keenum started. With Sam Bradford still dealing with knee issues and Teddy Bridgewater hoping to be back in action after Minnesota's Week 9 bye after missing a year-and-a-half following his own knee injury, Keenum has done a great job of working within the offense and avoiding mistakes—he's been the ideal backup for Mike Zimmer's team.
Keenum completed 27 of 43 passes for 288 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against the Browns. The interception came with 11:57 left in the first quarter, when a pass to Laquon Treadwell was tipped at the line of scrimmage by defensive end Carl Nassib and floated into the hands of linebacker Joe Schobert. After that, Keenum was fairly efficient: He competed two of four deep passes for 43 yards, but mostly he threw short passes as an adjunct to Minnesota's floundering running game. The Vikings gained 88 rushing yards on 34 carries, and though Jerick McKinnon had a rushing touchdown, it was on Keenum to help sustain drives.
Keenum's touchdown to Adam Thielen late in the second quarter came off a blown coverage that had the receiver wide open in the end zone, but it was still on Keenum to roll right out of pressure and throw the ball with good timing and mechanics, which he did. His touchdown pass to tight end Kyle Rudolph in the fourth quarter was a product of another of Keenum's skills: the ability to step up in the pocket to clear rushers around him and make a good, uncontested throw.
Keenum may or may not be a long-term starter in the NFL, but after a middling three years with the Houston Texans and a couple of disastrous seasons with the Jeff Fisher-led Rams, he's proven to be perhaps the most valuable backup quarterback in the league. Given the rate of quarterback injuries, there are much worse things to be.
14. Josh McCown, New York Jets
15 of 28
Last Week: 16
On Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, New York Jets quarterback Josh McCown faced off against two opponents: the Atlanta Falcons and the driving rain. McCown largely overcame his first foe, but he could not overcome the representatives from the NFC South.
McCown played a largely clean game Sunday, completing 26 of 33 passes for 257 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception. The elements did not seem to bother McCown, as he delivered crisp and accurate throws to all levels of the field. Whether it was a quick throw in the three-step game or routes down the field, McCown was accurate and put the football in good spots.
His first touchdown pass came on a well-designed verticals concept out of a singleback ace formation. Both of his tight ends ran seam routes to bracket the free safety, and McCown was able to freeze the defender in the middle of the field before throwing a perfect seam route to Eric Tomlinson for the score.
The second touchdown came on another vertical concept, this time a pure go route to Robby Anderson along the right sideline, with the ball placed perfectly for the touchdown.
One negative, specifically in the second half, were some sacks that McCown took that either ended drives or put the Jets well behind the sticks. Facing a 3rd-and-9 to open the fourth quarter, McCown dropped to throw and was slow to get through his reads to the backside of the play, where he had two open receivers. The seven-yard loss pushed the Jets back, and on fourth down Chandler Catanzaro missed a 48-yard field goal that would have given New York a four-point lead. On the Jets' next drive, McCown was sacked on a 2nd-and-10, but he provided some redemption on third down when he kept the play alive with his feet and got the Jets back into field-goal range with a good throw on the run.
The 25-20 loss dropped the Jets to 3-5 and into the basement of the AFC East. Even with five losses, New York is playing better than most predicted at the start of the season, and McCown is a big reason why. But despite his play to date, it is likely that the Jets look to either free agency, the draft or both to find their quarterback for the 2018 season.
13. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
16 of 28
Last Week: N/A (Bye)
According to Pro Football Reference, six quarterbacks have thrown for over 400 yards in a game and had zero touchdown passes. Matthew Stafford is the only quarterback in NFL history to have done that twice. He did it in 2012 against the Falcons on the day Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice's single-season record for receiving yards, and he did it Sunday against the Steelers' outstanding pass defense in a 20-15 loss.
The concept of "empty stats" is subjective, but it's hard to argue in this case. Stafford completed 27 of 45 passes for 423 yards against Pittsburgh. He completed five of 10 passes of 20 air yards or more for 169 yards. His first pass of the day was a gorgeous 43-yarder to Marvin Jones in which Stafford rolled to his left to evade pressure, reset on the move and connected with Jones over the head of cornerback Artie Burns. More than once, he made spectacular boundary and mid-field deep throws against Pittsburgh's revolving coverages and blitz packages.
But in the red zone? Not so good. The Lions ran 16 plays against the Steelers inside the 20-yard line and came away with five field goals. Perhaps the most frustrating combination of execution and play-calling came on the potential game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Stafford connected with a wide-open Eric Ebron for a 44-yard gain to the Pittsburgh 11-yard line with 3:06 remaining. Stafford then overthrew a fade in the end zone to Jones, hit Golden Tate on a five-yard in cut to the six-yard line and inexplicably handed the ball to running back Theo Riddick on third down for a two-yard loss. On a crucial fourth down, he threw a line-drive prayer under pressure that was nearly intercepted by linebacker Ryan Shazier. That ended Detroit's chances and stretched their losing streak to three games.
The 3-4 Lions have more issues than this game showed. They don't have the kind of effective power run game that adds to a red-zone threat, and opponents know that. The Steelers wisely backed off into coverage that would force Stafford to focus on short passes. Stafford later said that he checked into the draw play on third down because he saw eight Steelers in coverage, per ESPN's Michael Rothstein. But the Steelers had two linebackers inside the tackles that were reading run. Detroit's red-zone failures aren't all on Stafford—personnel and play selection add to the issues—but he's got to find a way to convert those mid-field big plays into something more tangible.
12. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
17 of 28
Last Week: 6
Of all the quarterbacks who faced difficult elements this weekend, Derek Carr seemed the most impacted by the wind and the rain. Carr completed 31 of 49 passes on the road against the Buffalo Bills for 313 yards and a touchdown, but he threw a pair of interceptions as well as the Raiders fell to 3-5.
Carr's ball placement seemed off on a number of passing attempts. His best throws, such as the back-shoulder throw to Amari Cooper on Oakland's opening drive, came early in the game before the conditions deteriorated. Late in the first quarter he overthrew a route in the flat that was open, and a few plays later he had Cooper on a vertical route but the pass was thrown out of bounds.
Carr's first interception came on a stick-nod route where he was unable to get the football over the underneath linebacker. Preston Brown tipped the football in the air, and the safety Micah Hyde covering over the top secured the interception for the turnover. His final attempt of the game was also intercepted. Carr looked to Cooper on a deep post route, but the pass was thrown well in front of the receiver and right to safety Trae Elston in deep coverage.
There were some good throws, such as the touchdown pass to running back DeAndre Washington. That came on a Texas route out of the backfield, and Carr did show good velocity and placement on that throw for the score.
At 3-5, the Raiders are not out of the picture in the AFC West, but they are getting to the point where they need some help to keep pace in the division. They'll have a good opportunity this Sunday night to get back in the win column as they travel east to take on a Miami Dolphins struggling to find an identity on offense and at the quarterback position.
11. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
18 of 28
Last Week: 20
Andy Dalton put up solid numbers in the Cincinnati Bengals' narrow victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. He completed 17 of 29 passes for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But perhaps more impressive than the statistics was how Dalton looked on tape, specifically in the face of a number of blitzes: Dalton showed the ability to hang in the pocket and make tough throws under pressure.
For example, Dalton's second touchdown pass came when the Colts employed a cornerback blitz off the edge. That was picked up, but interior pressure was bearing down on the quarterback in the pocket. Dalton hung tough and delivered a slightly underthrown post route in the direction of Josh Malone before taking a hit right to the chest. The receiver made a great adjustment to the pass and secured the first touchdown of his career.
Another trait Dalton showed on Sunday was his ability to make timing, rhythm throws with anticipation. Whether it was a curl route to tight end Tyler Kroft, a stick route to the tight end, or a seam route to Brandon LaFell, Dalton was in sync with a number of his receivers on Sunday, and his timing and anticipation on these throws made them almost impossible to defend.
Dalton's first touchdown of the game, a short post route to A.J. Green for an eight-yard score, showed perfect ball placement as well as good velocity.
Dalton has enjoyed an up-and-down 2017, but this was a very solid performance. He has fared better since the change to new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, but it's still too early to really buy in on Dalton at this point after he's recently thrown two interceptions each against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. His next three games are all road contests. He faces against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the best pass defense in the league, which will give us much more data to make a determination on Dalton's 2017 campaign.
10. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
19 of 28
Last Week: 12
Drew Brees has gone through far too many 5,000-yard seasons in which his team's horrible defense has dragged the Saints to a sub-500 level, so the last two weeks may have been a bit of a relief. The Saints have posted wins over the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears in which Brees threw just one touchdown and two interceptions in total. Against the Bears on Sunday, Brees completed 23 of 28 passes for 299 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions, and he was bailed out by a defense that has played incredibly over the last six weeks.
To be fair, Brees had a few nice shots with the deep ball. He had a gorgeous shot downfield to Ted Ginn Jr. in double coverage in the fourth quarter, but the biggest play of his day in the 20-12 win was a one-yard out route to receiver Brandon Coleman. Cornerback Bryce Callahan fell down at the sideline, and Coleman scampered upfield for 54 yards. Had Coleman not lost his footing on the Superdome turf, Brees would have had his lone touchdown of the day.
The clear plan was for Brees to fire his passes underneath Chicago's defense; he went with his first read on a high percentage of plays to get the ball out of his hands and keep an offensive rhythm going. He did unleash longer passes early in the fourth quarter with nice sideline routes to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, but for the most part, the offensive plan for the Saints seemed to be—for the second straight week—to keep the passing game safe and let the defense deal with an inexperienced NFC North quarterback. It worked with Brett Hundley and Mitchell Trubisky; we'll see what happens with that game plan when the Saints take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their vulnerable pass defense on November 5.
9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
20 of 28
Last Week: 13
Matt Ryan came into Sunday's game against the New York Jets with seven touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. It's been a rough first half of the year for the reigning MVP, as the regressive schemes of new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian have held Ryan and his targets back. Two unidentified Falcons offensive players described Sarkisian's approach as "disorganized" to The MMQB's Robert Klemko last week.
Not exactly the best mindset for Ryan to head to MetLife Stadium against a game Jets defense in rainy weather. Ryan completed 18 of 29 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, keeping the interceptions off the board—though he did fumble snap exchanges twice in the first quarter, with both recovered by the Jets.
Most of Ryan's completions to receivers were quick slants and cut routes designed to work underneath New York's zone defense; when the Jets switched to man coverage, it was tougher for him to thread the needle. Tight ends Austin Hooper and Levine Toilolo provided big targets for arcing passes. His 53-yard completion to Julio Jones halfway through the third quarter had Jones running from the right seam to the left. He simply beat the two defenders tasked to cover him, which was more about Jones' physical abilities than any designed route concept.
And so it goes. Ryan is still struggling with the timing of certain routes, and he's forced to improvise outside of structure more than he's comfortable with.
It was encouraging that Ryan was able to stay out of trouble and be productive in the 25-20 win, but against defenses that are playing less passively and clamping down against Atlanta's underneath receivers, the offense's problems will continue to manifest themselves until Ryan is put in better positions to hit designed openings by his coaching staff.
8. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
21 of 28
Last Week: 7
Downfield vision and the ability to keep his eyes in the secondary while facing pressure in the pocket; those were the stories from Tyrod Taylor's game Sunday against the Oakland Raiders. In difficult conditions, Taylor completed 20 of 27 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown and avoided turnovers as well as sacks on the afternoon.
As has been the case with Taylor all season, his ability to move in the pocket and avoid sacks was again on full display. But in contrast with some quarterbacks who start to move and become runners almost immediately, Taylor is extremely adept at keeping his eyes downfield and looking for targets in the passing game until the last moment. His touchdown pass to Andre Holmes was a prime example of this trait. Taylor evaded pressure in the backfield and slid to his left, finding Holmes working across the end zone from right to left. Taylor then dropped in a touch pass along the boundary, leading his receiver to an open space for the score.
Taylor again showed this vision on a 3rd-and-13 play in the fourth quarter. He slid around in the pocket, started to climb and looked as if he was going to take off with the football. But at the last moment, Taylor flashed his eyes along the right sideline and spotted Holmes open in the soft spot in Cover 2. Taylor immediately stopped and delivered a well-thrown pass to Holmes for a big gain.
Taylor and the Bills are playing very good football right now, and some, like Bleacher Report's own Brent Sobleski, are making the argument that they are the team to beat in the AFC East. If Taylor keeps making plays like these, and keeps his eyes downfield in the pocket, that argument may very well come to fruition.
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
22 of 28
Last Week: 5
If you can lead your team to a road victory and throw a 97-yard touchdown pass in the process, you have likely had a very good night. But Ben Roethlisberger's performance Sunday night against the Detroit Lions was somewhat inconsistent.
Big Ben completed 17 of 31 passes for 317 yards and a touchdown, as well as an interception, in Pittsburgh's 20-15 victory over the Detroit Lions. His night opened with a vertical route to rookie wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster on a well-designed fake smoke screen. The rookie WR broke free on a vertical route, but Roethlisberger's pass was slightly underthrown. The receiver was able to slow himself and make the catch, but a better throw likely would have resulted in a bigger play.
There were other missed opportunities in the passing game, such as a vertical route to Justin Hunter that sailed out of bounds or a deep ball to Antonio Brown that was also well off target. Roethlisberger also forced a deep post to Brown late in the second half that was off target, and only a great reaction and adjustment from the receiver prevented an interception. Before the touchdown, which went to Smith-Schuster, Roethlisberger had tight end Jesse James open over the middle but the pass sailed well over his target's head.
The interception was also forced into coverage in the general direction of Brown. The quarterback tried to hit his receiver on a seam route in an all-verticals concept, but the pass was overthrown and intercepted by the safety rotating over the top.
Roethlisberger was also on point with many other throws, though. He drilled an in cut to James early in the game, placing the football with velocity in a small throwing window. He also had Eli Rogers open in the end zone on a deep crossing route, but the receiver failed to make the reception. On the long touchdown pass to Smith-Schuster he showed great touch, dropping in a perfect throw to the rookie for the long catch and run.
At 6-2 the Steelers are keeping pace with both the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. One silver lining in all of this is that it seems Roethlisberger has yet to play his best football in 2017. If he starts doing just that, the Steelers will be a very difficult team to beat down the stretch.
6. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
23 of 28
Last Week: 1
Wentz got off to a good start against the Sn Francisco 49ers on Sunday; his first throw of the day was a perfectly timed slant to Nelson Agholor from the left slot for a 17-yard gain. Wentz didn't throw a deep pass until there was 2:46 left in the first quarter, when he mistimed an end-zone throw to Alshon Jeffery facing pressure up the middle. Wentz wasn't under duress a lot, mostly because he wasn't asked to do all that much. The Eagles had a 17-0 lead at the half as their defense harassed 49ers quarterback C.J. Beathard ceaselessly. So, Wentz's recent string of high-volume production was scaled back a little.
Wentz completed just 18 of 32 passes for 211 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Philly's 33-10 win. His best throw was a long ball to Jeffery in the third quarter that turned into a 53-yard touchdown. Here, Jeffery did most of the work, adjusting to the slightly underthrown pass around cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon and moving past linebacker Brock Coyle for the score. The interception was a weird play in which receiver Mack Hollins ran an intermediate comeback around the right-side numbers. Wentz threw to a different spot he thought Hollins would be, and Witherspoon had an easy pick.
The Eagles didn't need Wentz to be great or especially prolific against a bad team; perhaps that will change next Sunday if the Broncos can get out of their own way on offense. Right now, Wentz's team has the best record in football, and he's been good enough so far to throw this relatively pedestrian game aside.
5. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
24 of 28
Last Week: 8
On the Los Angeles Chargers' final offensive play Sunday against the New England Patriots, quarterback Philip Rivers was pressured and lofted a pass off his back foot toward the goal line that was intercepted. It was the only turnover thrown by the Chargers QB during the game, but it ended a contest where the visiting team hung around and had a chance to at least force overtime on the road in difficult conditions.
Rivers completed 17 of 30 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown to go with an interception on the final play. The Patriots, despite being knocked for lacking an imposing pass rush, pressured Rivers throughout the game and forced a number of back-foot throws. A perfect example came in the third quarter when David Harris blitzed on the inside and Rivers was forced to retreat and then lost the football in the process. The fumble and 22-yard loss put the Chargers into a 3rd-and-31, and the Chargers were forced to punt.
Despite the pressure, Rivers made a number of impressive throws, but he was not always rewarded for his efforts. On a 3rd-and-13 later in the third quarter, Rivers was pressured and lofted a throw to Tyrell Williams on a corner route. The ball was placed perfectly, but the receiver could not complete the catch. Rivers also showed great timing, rhythm and anticipation on a variety of throws to Keenan Allen, mostly on comeback routes and back shoulder plays where the timing made the passes almost impossible to defend.
Rivers also hit Travis Benjamin on a vertical route for a score to set the stage for the dramatic conclusion. Cornerback Malcolm Butler was caught peeking in the backfield at the snap, and Rivers' throw was perfect, with the awareness to find Benjamin open along the sideline impressive as well.
Despite Rivers's play, the loss was another one-score defeat for the Chargers in a season seemingly full of them (they have four in total). Los Angeles is not out of the playoff picture in the AFC West yet, but it needs to turn some of these one-score losses into wins if it is going to claw back into the race.
4. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
25 of 28
Last Week: 3
Many football writers believe the presence of a young, dynamic player on the roster behind Alex Smith is pushing Smith to the best football of his career.
We can say for certain that player pushing Smith is not Tyreek Hill.
Hill's poor throw that resulted in an interception on a bizarre play call from Andy Reid was the biggest blemish on a solid night for the Kansas City Chiefs against their division rivals. What we did see from Kansas City's starting quarterback was a display of both touch and velocity Monday night. Smith found Travis Kelce early in the contest on a beautiful slant-and-go route. Kelce got great separation, and the quarterback dropped in a beautiful throw. Smith also showed the ability to dial up the velocity. He hit Hill on a crossing route in the second quarter with an impressive fastball, putting it in the perfect spot with impressive torque in the throwing motion.
But as the game wore on, the Denver defense started to get to Smith with a variety of blitzes and pressure packages. Smith made a few poor throws under pressure, and he was also forced into some quick checkdowns in longer-distance situations. Those allowed Denver to force some three-and-outs in the second half and gave its offense multiple chances to claw back into the game.
When the Broncos cut the Chiefs' lead to seven following a Devontae Booker touchdown run, it was up to Smith and the offense to respond. Respond they did, with Smith hitting Kelce in a scramble-drill situation as the third quarter ended. Smith then hit his tight end on a deep crossing route to open the fourth quarter. That drive resulted in a field goal that gave the Chiefs some breathing room as they tried to ice the game.
It was not an ideal performance from Smith and the Chiefs, but a victory over a divisional rival is still a big win. They'll get a test this weekend as they travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys before they get the bye week and a chance to heal up for the stretch run.
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
26 of 28
Last Week: 2
If I were ever approached to put together a video series to help young quarterback learn to play the quarterback position (enquire within!), I would start with a video of Tom Brady in 2017 focusing on his movement and awareness in the pocket. Up against a talented and deep Los Angeles Chargers pass rush, Brady was impressive in the pocket, sliding and moving away from pressure on multiple occasions and creating space for throw after throw.
Brady completed 32 of 47 passes for 333 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. He was sacked three times, but a mixture of Brady's pocket movement and a game plan focused on quick throws to the running backs kept that number lower than it could have been. In the second half, the Chargers upped the pressure with some cornerback blitzes that created havoc in the backfield, but they never forced a mistake from the QB.
Brady's touchdown pass (a short throw to Rob Gronkowski on the goal-line) was a well-executed play-action throw that included a fake from the quarterback that would make Boomer Esiason proud. (Seriously, kids, Google Esiason's play fakes sometime. They were beautiful.)
But more than anything, it was Brady's pocket movement that stood out. There was one play where left tackle Nate Solder rode Joey Bosa around and behind Brady in the pocket. The quarterback could not find a receiver downfield and knew Bosa was closing in, so he took a quick peek over his shoulder to find where the defensive end was and then slid around him once more before finding James White for a 20-yard gain.
The Patriots enter the bye week with a 6-2 record and get a chance to rest up for their toughest stretch of the season. Five of their next six games are away from home, with trips to Denver, Buffalo, Miami and Pittsburgh on the schedule as well as a game in Mexico City against the Raiders. If they can get everyone back healthy for the stretch run, and their 40-year old quarterback keeps moving in the pocket like he is now, New England remains perhaps the team to beat in the AFC.
2. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
27 of 28
Last Week: N/A (Bye)
"You played the best game any quarterback has ever played against us, and we've played all the legends. I respect how you hung in there and kept battling and battling."
"Just give him Rookie of the Year."
To try to sum up what we saw from Deshaun Watson on Sunday, perhaps the words of the players who went up against him work best. In a thrilling game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Houston Texans, the home team came out on top in the end, but both quarterbacks were dazzling.
There were mistakes from the rookie quarterback. He threw three interceptions, the first of which Earl Thomas returned for a touchdown. That play highlighted how Watson needs to keep improving how he uses his eyes. Watson gave only a cursory glance to a vertical route on his right before focusing on DeAndre Hopkins' dig route. The quick peek did little to influence Thomas, and the safety broke on Hopkins and stepped in front of the throw en route to the score.
We also saw an interception from Sherman where Watson locked onto a crossing route and failed to see the cornerback lurking along the boundary in zone coverage. Watson tried to hit the crosser, but Sherman was there for the turnover.
But we saw more dynamic plays. Watson opened the scoring with a perfect deep ball to Will Fuller V for a 59-yard score. On a short touchdown pass to Lamar Miller, he was able to spin out of a sack and keep his eyes in the secondary to find his running back open for the throw. On play after play, Watson was able to extend with his feet and make gains downfield through the air. Credit again must go to how coach Bill O'Brien is drawing up plays to use Watson and maximize what he does well.
Perhaps the next time the Texans need to salt away a lead, O'Brien will put even more on his quarterback's shoulders.
This was a big test for the rookie QB, on the road in a tough environment against a defense holding opponents to a QB rating of 75.2 and an Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt of 5.1. But despite the loss, and yes the turnovers, Watson largely answered the call. If players like Sherman and Wilson came away impressed after seeing him up close, that is enough for me.
1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
28 of 28
Last Week: 4
In Seattle's 41-38 win over the Houston Texans on Sunday, Russell Wilson proved two things: He can take the Seahawks' entire offense on his shoulders, and if he had even half an offensive line, he might be completely unfair. Wilson completed 26 of 41 passes for 452 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, adding 30 yards rushing on four carries. All of Seattle's other rushers gained a grand total of three yards on 17 carries, which means Wilson was directly responsible for 476 of Seattle's 479 yards. He took several deep shots as the game progressed and the lead kept shifting, completing five of seven passes of 20 or more air yards for 202 yards and a touchdown.
Wilson did all this despite an offensive line that was at best inconsistent and at worst fireable. He was officially under pressure on 15 of his 45 dropbacks, completing five of 11 passes under pressure for 141 yards and a touchdown. What Wilson has learned to do over time is to roll out of pressure caused by awful blocking, particularly the efforts of left tackle Rees Odhiambo, who was frequently owned by Texans defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.
Wilson's 20-yard touchdown pass to receiver Paul Richardson in the first quarter was an excellent example of his degree of difficulty. He had to roll to his left to escape pressure and then make a pinpoint throw more than 20 yards downfield with Clowney running right at him. Seattle's receivers are used to breaking off their routes and running toward Wilson's throwing lines as the play breaks down, and the QB responded with a perfect pass there. Halfway through the second quarter, he hit Tanner McEvoy 50 yards downfield with a throw placed perfectly just over two Texans defenders. His deep ball to Richardson on the fourth-quarter drive that put Seattle ahead for good was an excellent adjustment to coverage by Richardson, but it was also on Wilson, who had to move around a compressing pocket.
That Wilson is able to do what he did against the Texans with no running game and an offensive line that wouldn't pass muster at several major colleges is a common narrative. Perhaps we forget the amount he's asked to make up for in the flawed designs of Seattle's offense, but on days like this, his ability to create something special out of very little should be remembered.
There is good news on the horizon for Wilson, though. The Seahawks traded for Texans left tackle Duane Brown on Monday, as first reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter, and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell called his most expansive game of the season against Houston. Wilson deserves more than he's had around him, and it's good to see his front office working to address that.
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