Stay Away! 1 MLB Team Every Top-10 Free Agent Should Avoid This Offseason
As long as an MLB team is willing and able to pay, MLB free agents have earned the right to sign wherever they choose. Nobody can tell them otherwise.
Factors beyond baseball will play into their decisions. Maybe someone prefers to live by the beach in a warm climate. Perhaps the free agent is reticent to abandon a flourishing community program or pull his kids from a good school.
These items are for the player and his family to discuss. The on-field elements, however, are fair game.
Fans typically prefer playing general manager and pinpointing players teams should avoid signing. Let's flip the script and identify a team each of the top-10 free agents—judged based on recent performance and expected earning potential without considering players who can decline a player option—should eschew.
Money plays into the formula, but a team must be a realistic landing spot to qualify. While Yu Darvish should not sign with the Oakland Athletics since they will not offer fair market value, that's too obvious for this exercise.
And just to keep things fresh, no organization could be targeted more than once. The San Francisco Giants otherwise could have taken the dubious honor for multiple highlighted hitters.
Most choices are fueled by a destination stifling individual success and/or not having the surrounding roster to lead the free agent to a championship. These are not predictions of what will not happen, but rather assessments of what should not occur.
Jake Arrieta: Philadelphia Phillies
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After going 66-96, the Philadelphia Phillies seemingly break the rule of only considering feasible targets.
Not so fast. Having eradicated any expensive contracts from their payroll, they enter the offseason with MLB's most spending leverage. A team that opened 2014 with a payroll over $177 million only has Odubel Herrera's $3.35 million on the ledger before arbitration.
Rookie Rhys Hoskins led them to a 37-38 record after the All-Star break, but pitching remains an area of need. Perhaps they can persuade Arrieta to leave the Chicago Cubs and form a new National League powerhouse from the ground up.
It would feel reminiscent of Jon Lester joining the Cubs after 2014's 73-win campaign. That move has worked well for both sides.
So where's the downside for Arrieta? According to ESPN.com's MLB Park Factors, Citizens Bank Park was conducive to MLB's highest home run rate in 2017. The 31-year-old just surrendered a career-high 23 home runs with his highest fly-ball percentage (34.4) since 2011.
He would also leave a Cubs defense that compiled 30 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for inexperienced Phillies fielders that cost the team 41 runs. Rookie J.P. Crawford can help, but not as much if they plan to keep him at third base rather than shortstop.
Arrieta would not immediately make the Phillies a title contender, and a veteran ace's best days often end abruptly. His velocity has dipped in each of the past two seasons. Moving to a hitter's park with a downgraded defense may cause even steeper regression than this season's 3.53 ERA.
While these same arguments could be used for the Phillies passing, they also apply for Arrieta finding a favorable spot for a contender. That is, unless Philadelphia uses its savings to offer an insanely rich contract.
Lorenzo Cain: New York Mets
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Lorenzo Cain is a defensive asset in center field. That won't always be the case.
Here's a tally of his DRS by season, starting in 2013: 23, 22, 18, 11, 5. That's a troubling trend for anyone planning on presenting the 31-year-old a multiyear deal.
Both Cain and suitors should seek a situation where he can move to a corner slot in a couple of years if needed. For example, the Kansas City Royals veteran would initially occupy center for the Seattle Mariners, but he could eventually switch places with Mitch Haniger.
Having spent the last two seasons frequently playing corner outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto in center, the New York Mets are a reasonable candidate to recruit Cain. If all goes according to plan, they would need him to lock down his current position for the duration of his deal.
Given general manager Sandy Alderson's tendencies, the 2015 All-Star would also struggle to secure a long-term deal. That alone could sway him to sign elsewhere. According to FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman, the Royals aren't confident about retaining him because they believe a competitor will offer at least four years.
And if Cain believes in curses, he won't want to join Cespedes, Conforto, Juan Lagares, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Jeurys Familia, Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Travis d'Arnaud and David Wright on the list of Mets who suffered injuries in 2017.
Alex Cobb: Toronto Blue Jays
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Alex Cobb will most likely play for a new team, but he may visit his old squad frequently.
Last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are "very interested" in poaching the Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher, who is "battle-tested in the AL East."
The Orioles are not an ideal fit for a pitcher. Go to the Lance Lynn section for more on them. Yankee Stadium is a treacherous landing spot for a right-handed hurler, but at least he would be joining a winner.
Brandishing a 3.08 career ERA against AL East adversaries, he does not need to flee the trying grouping. He has also, however, pitched many of those games at Tropicana Field, which finished 2017 among the top 10 in stifling runs and home runs.
By pursuing Cobb, Toronto would demonstrate a belief in turning around a 76-86 season with better health from Aaron Sanchez, Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki. Even if both oft-injured middle infielders avoid any more absences, a lineup that finished the season No. 26 in scoring will need more reinforcements to contend.
The Blue Jays may withdraw their interest in Cobb after re-signing Marco Estrada to a one-year extension. Either way, the 30-year-old should explore life in the National League, perhaps by reuniting with former manager Joe Maddon in Chicago.
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Zack Cozart: Cincinnati Reds
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Zack Cozart is free agency's top shortstop who batted .297/.385/.548 with 5.0 WAR in 2017. The position's scarcity would have steered him to a major raise in prior years, but a recent star influx puts the 32-year-old in an awkward situation.
No big-market team needs to spend on a shortstop. Unless the Arizona Diamondbacks pivot his way after losing J.D. Martinez, his best offer could come from a rebuilding franchise with money to spare.
Given the uncertain market, this pick comes with an asterisk. Staying with the Cincinnati Reds could be his best option, particularly if they extend him a $17.4 million qualifying offer. Cozart should then consider accepting to validate his stock with another strong season. If he declines, attaching draft-pick compensation would further derail his outside options.
Yet Zach Buchanan and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer said it "seems more likely" the Reds will forgo the qualifying offer. The Reds, who have not reached the playoffs since 2013, may only want him back for a hometown discount.
If the same applies for his other suitors, perhaps he will prefer to stay home. This would derail his path to the postseason, and MLB.com's Mark Sheldon said the lifelong Reds shortstop "really wants to play for a winner."
Yu Darvish: Texas Rangers
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This is not because the Texas Rangers traded Darvish on July 31. If he liked Texas and receives a strong offer from his former club, the ace should consider returning.
He should also remember why the Rangers moved him in the first place. Their bullpen posted baseball's third-worst ERA (4.76), and no rotation notched a lower strikeout percentage. Even if Darvish comes back, the starting staff needs major work beyond a regressing Cole Hamels.
Only the Houston Astros and Yankees hit more home runs than the Rangers, but they still finished No. 16 with a .750 OPS. Adrian Beltre, who turns 39 next April, has one year left on his contract.
The hitters may enjoy Globe Life Park in Arlington, a stadium with 2017's second-highest scoring factor behind Coors Field. Darvish, meanwhile, surrendered 13 long balls and a 5.38 ERA in a dozen starts at home before the deadline deal.
The strikeout artist also utilized his NL relocation to stockpile 61 strikeouts in 49.2 regular-season innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Staying in a spacious ballpark on a stacked NL West squad would work wonders for Darvish, but the Dodgers may have too much pitching depth to extend him a huge offer.
A playoff fixture when he arrived, the Rangers must make major improvements to stay in the wild-card hunt. Darvish will especially have his pick of deep-pocketed contenders if he leads the Dodgers to a World Series triumph.
Wade Davis: Colorado Rockies
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Wade Davis went two seasons (2014 and 2016) without relinquishing a home run. He yielded two this postseason but should nevertheless elicit interest from teams—including the Cubs—pursuing a brand-name closer.
Even though this October wasn't pretty, a career 1.40 postseason ERA and 2015 title with the Royals will still stand out to postseason hopefuls.
Even if superior middle relievers are available, Greg Holland likely became the market's second-best "proven closer" after declining his player option. In addition to losing their ninth-inning reliever, the Colorado Rockies must worry about retaining free agents Pat Neshek and Jake McGee.
Davis should let their calls go to voicemail.
With Jonathan Lucroy, Mark Reynolds and Carlos Gonzalez also hitting the open market, the Rockies need more than one addition to return to the playoffs. If they do, the Dodgers would likely relegate them to the Wild Card Game again.
Without retaining any of their three best relievers, only Chris Rusin is left to hand Davis a lead. As he learned early in the National League Championship Series, even the most outside-the-box-thinking manager will let a closer wither away in the bullpen if his teammates don't give him a save situation.
There's also, of course, Coors Field. Davis has now served up seven long balls since the start of August.
In his prime, he would have been a prime candidate to combat the high altitude. As a 32-year-old who issued 28 walks in 58.2 innings, the unforgiving stadium would expedite a decline.
Eric Hosmer: New York Yankees
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A person in their 20s—Eric Hosmer turns 28 on Tuesday—would be forgiven for moving from Kansas City to New York. Especially if the Yankees offer him more money, which is a distinct possibility given their budget advantages over the Royals.
According to FanRag Sports' Heyman, the Yankees are attracted by Hosmer's leadership and experience at the center of big moments. If they present him an offer anywhere near the eight years and $200 million agent Scott Boras is reportedly seeking—which is similar to the eight-year, $180 million contract Boras client Mark Teixeira signed nine years ago—who is this writer to say the first baseman should decline?
Just remember that a big market means more eyeballs, which often means irrational media scrutiny. Aaron Judge wasn't exempt from criticism when slumping during and after a 52-homer season. Neither was Gary Sanchez after some passed balls.
Those are home-grown superstars who have the Yankees one win away from seizing the AL pennant. How will fans and pundits respond to mediocre results from Hosmer?
There's a strong chance of discovering the answer if he goes to the Bronx, as he amassed WAR values of minus-1.7, 0.0 and minus-0.1 in 2012, 2014 and 2016, respectively. Hosmer has major bust potential anywhere, but Royals fans will remember 2015's championship before bemoaning an overpay.
If he receives superstar money and does not perform like one, the Big Apple would turn him into a pariah. His salary could also hinder them from winning a bidding war for Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or Clayton Kershaw next year.
Many of these points can transfer to the Boston Red Sox, but at least they actually need a first baseman and a significant offensive upgrade. If added to the affable "Baby Bombers," Hosmer would stand out as a needless luxury harking back to the Evil Empire's days of reckless spending.
Lance Lynn: Baltimore Orioles
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Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals might place each other atop their stay-away lists.
The 30-year-old pitcher spoke critically of the team trading Mike Leake in August and failing to communicate on an extension. The Cardinals promoted Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty to their rotation late in 2017 and will hope to welcome back Alex Reyes in 2018.
Since a breakup seems highly likely, let's look elsewhere. After composing a 4.97 team ERA, the Orioles need to upgrade their starting staff. According to MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi, they plan on seeking outside help.
Lynn would represent a seismic improvement over their other starters beyond Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. That's more of an indictment on Baltimore than a compliment to Lynn, who posted the worst strikeout (7.39) and walks (3.77) per nine rates of his career this season.
No qualified starter enjoyed a more advantageous discrepancy between his ERA and fielding independent pitching (FIP). As a result, he must choose his new team extremely carefully to avoid an extreme regression.
Moving to a difficult home park for an American League squad with a troublesome defense is not advised. Lynn would not vault them into contention following a 75-win season, which may motivate the Orioles to trade upcoming free agents Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton and/or Brad Brach next summer.
If they relent and rebuild, Lynn could also become a trade candidate depending on his contract.
J.D. Martinez: San Francisco Giants
9 of 10
The San Francisco Giants hit 53 home runs after the All-Star break. Martinez hit 31.
When a big-market team ranks last in long balls, everyone will naturally link it to the elite slugger of the next free-agent class. When examining the outfielder's top potential destinations, MLB.com's Morosi said, "Martinez and San Francisco might be the most logical pairing of any free agent and team this winter."
From San Francisco's perspective, sure. Even that is an uncertainty, as it is already tied to $154.4 million in 2018 payroll before enacting Madison Bumgarner's $12 million club option.
Martinez may not care about those commitments if the Giants don't. Yet if he values winning, he should wonder if they can rebound from a bleak 64-98 season while locked down to multiple highly paid veterans coming off down years.
If he enjoys hitting homers, he will definitely want nothing to do with AT&T Park. For the fourth consecutive year, San Francisco's cavernous ballpark induced MLB's lowest home run factor. No Giants player has hit 25 or more long balls in a season since Hunter Pence produced 27 in 2013.
Although Martinez would also represent their best power hitter in years, he has benefited from two hitting-friendly environments in Comerica Park and Chase Field. The 30-year-old wields a career .605 slugging percentage at Comerica and .813 slugging percentage in 38 games at Arizona's home park.
His road slugging percentage dips to .476.
There's doubt over the Diamondbacks presenting him a competitive offer, but Martinez expressed an openness to extend their working relationship last month, per AZCentral.com's Nick Piecoro.
"I've thought about it a lot," Martinez said. "It's definitely something I'd love, I'd be interested in. I've loved my time here. The guys are great. The team is young. They're definitely going to be good for a while."
The Giants are old and on the downswing. It would be a shame to see a star slugger dragged down with them.
Mike Moustakas: Kansas City Royals
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Wherever he goes, Mike Moustakas is unlikely to hit 38 home runs next season. This is especially true if he stays with the Royals.
According to Baseball Savant, those long balls went an average distance of 397 feet. Cody Bellinger was the only other one of 14 players who belted 37 or more homers with an average rate below 400 feet.
Even with a career 44.0 fly-ball percentage, sustaining such elite power will be tough if the third baseman keeps playing half his schedule at Kauffman Stadium. The spacious outfield is conducive to hits, but one of baseball's stingiest venues in terms of home runs.
For Cain and Hosmer, the dimensions work as a feature. For a fly-ball hitter who frequently pulls the ball, it's a detriment.
Moustakas, who went yard 24 times on the road in 2017, hit .259/.302/.456 at home during a breakout year. He would have a lot more fun swinging at Fenway Park, where the right-field wall looks more like a gate parents use to keep a toddler away from the staircase.
There's also the fact that the Royals are unlikely to retain all three position players. Even if they find the money to afford all three, other holes led them to post a minus-89 run differential last season.
The 29-year-old would put up better numbers and enhance his chances or returning to the playoffs with the Red Sox, Cardinals or even the Phillies.
Note: Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. MLB Park Factors are from ESPN.com. Salary information obtained from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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