10 MLB Teams Set Up to Dominate the Offseason Trade Market
Following a brief postseason interlude, MLB's hot stove will once again open for business.
The rumor mill remained in operation until the last possible moment this summer as the Houston Astros finalized a deal for Justin Verlander late on Aug. 31. Instead of dominating offseason gossip, the ace will look to lead Houston to its first World Series since relocating to the American League.
While the late transaction eliminated a major winter storyline, several other big names—most notably Giancarlo Stanton—could still change places.
Both teams fighting for the AL pennant after midseason acquisitions have the reinforcements to strike again. Other squads stuck amid contention and rebuilding must choose a course.
Whether they're buyers, sellers or somewhere in between, these 10 franchises have the pieces to reshape MLB before 2018's Opening Day. As a result, expect them to be at the center of offseason trade chatter.
Atlanta Braves
1 of 10
The Atlanta Braves must first find a new general manager after John Coppolella resigned amid an investigation of his breaking international free-agent protocol. Whoever takes his seat will inherit a terrific situation.
Even after promoting Ozzie Albies, the Braves boast MLB's premier farm system in the eyes of Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter. Eight players, led by 19-year-old outfielder Ronald Acuna, are featured in MLB.com's top-100 prospect rankings.
Because of their stacked minor league reservoir, the Braves constantly appeared in midseason trade speculation regarding cost-controlled starting pitchers. They were conversely "very open" to fielding offers for struggling starter Julio Teheran, as reported by ESPN.com's Buster Olney in July.
A new general manager's agenda may of course differ from Coppolella's plan. Perhaps the new hire will clear the cupboard to build a contender around Albies, Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte. Or maybe the successor, realizing Acuna and others need more time, will try to dump Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.
Either way, Atlanta will become one of the winter's most interesting organizations to watch once it chooses a GM replacement.
Houston Astros
2 of 10
After snagging Verlander right before the deadline to maintain postseason eligibility, the Astros may feel comfortable standing pat this winter.
Their newly acquired ace will stick around for two more seasons with a $28 million annual salary. Even if free agents Carlos Beltran and Evan Gattis sign elsewhere, the Astros might prefer Derek Fisher's or Tyler White's earning a regular gig.
But there's always room for improvement, especially if they don't capture the Commissioner's Trophy this fall.
Despite surrendering Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers to Detroit, Houston still wields a well-stocked farm system. Leveraging it for another star might be necessary as an arms race unfolds among MLB's developing powerhouses.
Speculation surfaced over the Astros' acquiring a high-leverage reliever at the deadline, but they instead snagged Francisco Liriano. With Luke Gregerson's contract expiring, they may want to revisit talks for Zach Britton or Brad Hand.
The Astros don't have any major weaknesses. Retaining Gregerson as well as Beltran or Gattis—or signing free-agent replacements of similar value—would be more than enough for the team to maintain its positioning as an AL West favorite and a top World Series contender.
If the Astros want to bolster their 2018 odds, the opportunity is there.
Miami Marlins
3 of 10
The Miami Marlins outfielders, particularly Stanton, will dominate trade speculation throughout the offseason.
A 59-homer season from Stanton lifted the franchise to just 77 victories. Now new ownership must decide whether it can afford the superstar, whose salary jumps to $25 million next season.
Derek Jeter guarded his plans when speaking to reporters earlier this month, per ESPN.com, but he acknowledged the franchise's need for operational change.
"We do have to rebuild the organization," Jeter said. "It starts with player development and scouting. We will build it from top down and bottom up."
Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna won't hemorrhage Miami's finances, but they would both draw considerable trade interest if available. Ozuna enjoyed a breakout year with 37 home runs and a .924 OPS. As former general manager Jim Bowden told the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, the 26-year-old would draw massive appeal as someone who can't explore free agency until 2020.
"You would get a better return for Ozuna than Stanton because you don't have to worry about the money issue," Bowden said. "Plus, he can’t control his destiny [because he has no no-trade clause]. Teams would line up for Ozuna. There would be an open bidding war. An open bidding war gets you more than a closed one. He's such a great player."
Yelich, meanwhile, is 25 and has finished each of the last two seasons with 4.5 WAR, per FanGraphs. He will make $43.3 million through the next four years.
Dee Gordon, Justin Bour and Dan Straily would also garner considerable interest if Jeter orchestrates another Marlins fire sale. Without knowing how he plans to proceed, everyone must monitor the Marlins' every step.
.png?w=256)
Milwaukee Brewers
4 of 10
In contention sooner than anticipated, the Milwaukee Brewers cautiously dipped one foot into the trade waters. Rather than mortgaging a calculated rebuild, they acquired pending free agents Anthony Swarzak and Neil Walker for little cost.
After going 86-76, Milwaukee will no longer enter 2018 as the scrappy underdog playing with house money. General manager David Stearns will instead be expected to put the finishing touches on his renovating project.
He should receive a larger budget for these fixes. The Brewers, who entered 2014 and 2015 with payrolls above $100 million, are committed only to Ryan Braun ($19 million) and Eric Thames (a huge bargain at $5 million) before arbitration and contract renewals.
Retaining Walker and Swarzak would heal wounds Stearns temporarily covered. Yet with Jimmy Nelson expected to miss part of 2018 after injuring his right shoulder in September, the Brewers also need a significant rotation upgrade.
Free agency won't offer a solution. Even if they open their pockets, they're not going to win a bidding war for Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb won't be cheap either.
They will likely instead scour the trade market for cost-controlled hurlers, potentially Chris Archer if the Tampa Bay Rays shop their ace. If not, they can instead ask about Jake Odorizzi.
Stearns has the prospects to swing a blockbuster without sacrificing Lewis Brinson, as Reuter slotted the Brewers No. 5 in his latest farm rankings. Milwaukee no longer has the benefit of tempered expectations to play the offseason safe.
New York Yankees
5 of 10
Despite an expected reluctance to weaken their fortified farm system, the New York Yankees acquired Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson and Sonny Gray in July. While the three pitchers here remain under contract for 2018, general manager Brian Cashman may have more moves up his sleeve.
The rotation will need work beyond Gray and Luis Severino, especially if Masahiro Tanaka enacts his opt-out clause and free agent CC Sabathia signs elsewhere. Although Gleyber Torres, Chance Adams and Estevan Florial will likely stay put, the farm system remains deep enough to seek another upgrade.
With Kahnle and Robertson in the bullpen, Cashman could get creative and dangle one of his many relievers. Dellin Betances would still fetch a big return despite his maddeningly inconsistent command.
Back in August, anyone would have laughed at the notion of a team showing interest in Jacoby Ellsbury, who will make over $21 million in each of the next two seasons. Unloading his salary to make room for Clint Frazier is still unlikely but at least plausible after the 34-year-old outfielder batted .337 in September.
For all the talk of the Bronx Bombers' blossoming ahead of schedule, the program has changed. Next year's star-studded free agency could compel them to avoid any significant signings, but that should only steer them to explore the trade market.
Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 10
The Philadelphia Phillies have money and prospects. A 66-96 season should not necessarily deter them from augmenting their roster.
Having completed a long process of shedding bad contracts from a past regime, team president Andy MacPhail is in no rush to repeat the franchise's prior mistakes. As he explained after the season ended, per an Associated Press report via USA Today, he had the unusual task of convincing ownership not to spend money.
"My philosophy hasn't changed," MacPhail said. "There are times you have to dive into that pool, but it's not my favorite place to be. You don't want to pay for past performance."
Any fans expecting a free-agent spending spree will be sorely disappointed. With slim odds of jumping into the playoff picture next year, they are better served preserving their savings for next offseason's crop of available stars.
The trade market, however, could prove a different story.
Philadelphia maintains a flourishing farm after welcoming Rhys Hoskins to the majors. MacPhail won't chase rentals, but any young and affordable contributors should capture his attention.
He could even budge on the affordable part if Miami makes Stanton available, but Ozuna or Yelich would make a better fit.
The Marlins holding their stars—or declining to negotiate with a division competitor—could cause a quiet offseason for the Phillies. Yet they're waiting to leverage their resources when the opportunity arises.
San Francisco Giants
7 of 10
The San Francisco Giants would have been major summer sellers if they had more players to sell.
Rather than blowing the team up after one bad year, the team who finished with the National League's worst record settled simply for trading pending free agent Eduardo Nunez. Their other possible marquee trade chip, Johnny Cueto, went on the disabled list weeks before the deadline.
Even if the Giants wanted to start from scratch, finding takers for Mark Melancon, Hunter Pence, Denard Span and Brandon Belt would be an arduous undertaking. One would assume Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner are going nowhere.
Yet they could shop Jeff Samardzija, who has three years and $59.4 million left on his contract. That's not an outrageous price for a durable hurler coming off his third 200-strikeout campaign.
Unless Cueto exercises his opt-out clause, an ill-advised choice after posting a career-worst 4.52 ERA in 2017, San Francisco can reignite a trade market dashed by his untimely blisters.
If Giants general manager Bobby Evans instead wants to preserve their even-year magic, he instead must scour the market for upgrades. Already committed to over $154 million next year before considering arbitration-eligible players, they should not address major needs at third base and center field by signing more expensive free agents.
Either way, the 2010, 2012 and 2014 champions must act now to avoid an ugly downward spiral.
Seattle Mariners
8 of 10
As long as Jerry Dipoto is their general manager, the Seattle Mariners will be busy.
Lacking pitching for a playoff push, the hyperactive negotiator acquired David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, Marco Gonzales and Mike Leake. Their rotation would not have needed a major overhaul if offseason acquisition Drew Smyly did not get injured before Opening Day. He also gave up long-time prospect Taijuan Walker, who recorded a 3.49 ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
For all his maneuvering, the Mariners have not made the playoffs since rookie Ichiro Suzuki led them to a record-setting 116 wins in 2001. With Robinson Cano (34) and Nelson Cruz (37) on the wrong end of the aging curve, they might have already bungled their best chance.
Dipoto faces a delicate situation this offseason. While summer moves and a healthy James Paxton bolster the starting staff, he now needs help at first base and center field. The clock is ticking on constructing a contender around Cano, Cruz and the declining Felix Hernandez.
One thing is for sure: He won't stay stagnant this winter. Expect the Mariners to once again rearrange the roster beyond their veteran core.
St. Louis Cardinals
9 of 10
The St. Louis Cardinals will call if the Marlins make Giancarlo Stanton or one of their other star outfielders available.
Even if they have confidence in the 2017 breakouts from Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez, the Cardinals can use a marquee position player to better challenge the Chicago Cubs in 2018. A deep roster and compelling farm system gives them flexibility to seek an elite upgrade, especially from a pitching-needy team like Miami.
FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman identified St. Louis as the top candidate to snag one of MLB's home run leaders.
"They have a need for a middle-of-the-order bat, and importantly, the perfect mix of prospects to make a deal," Heyman wrote of the Cardinals. "They even have talented young pitchers the Marlins need, with Alex Reyes (who may be untouchable), plus Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver and Sandy Alcantara, who really opened people’s eyes this year."
Marlins outfielders are not their only likely target. USA Today's Bob Nightengale said the Red Birds are "expected to strongly pursue" Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson, who recovered from a lethargic start to belt 22 homers over his final 50 games. His contract expires after the 2018 season, so the Blue Jays should consider shopping the 2015 AL MVP to kick-start a necessary rebuild.
General manager Mike Girsch has the trade capital to make a major move, so St. Louis will be attached to any buzz surrounding available big-name bats this winter.
Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 10
Are the Blue Jays ready to rebuild?
They lost Edwin Encarnacion last offseason. Now they plan on parting ways with Jose Bautista. Having finished 2017 with baseball's ninth-worst run differential (minus-91), they are trending downward in a hurry.
Don't count on Donaldson, Russell Martin, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada—who all have one more year under contract—completing 2018 with the Blue Jays. The question is whether general manager Ross Atkins will wait until a subpar first half dictates an overhaul.
Toronto would demand every contender's attention by commencing the teardown this winter. In addition to those possible one-year rentals, the franchise could entertain offers for Justin Smoak following his 38-homer breakout.
Suitors would inevitably line up for Marcus Stroman, but there's no rush to move the 26-year-old ace. Then again, most of the highlighted teams crave a young front-line starter. One may present a king's ransom for the righty, who registered a 3.09 ERA in 201 innings this year.
While reality forces teams into selling every July, not as many franchises will wave the white flag during the winter. With few other organizations situated to wipe their slate clean, the Blue Jays should maximize their rebuild by beginning this offseason.
All salary information obtained from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
.png?w=480)
