Fantasy Football Week 1: Matt Camp's Week 1 BS Meter
The regular season is still a couple of days away, yet the major storylines and developments from the preseason already loom large for fantasy players.
Every Tuesday during the regular season, this article will examine the biggest news and performances from the previous week to decide what is legit and what is BS. Since this is the opening week, the first BS Meter will look at the key stories heading into Week 1 and grade their significance, with 1 being completely legitimate and 10 being total BS.
It's easy to fall in love with a preseason superstar like Chris Carson of the Seattle Seahawks, but will his performance carry over to the regular season? The answer isn't a clear yes or no, so his fantasy value must be addressed.
Some of these situations are directly related to Week 1 matchups, like the absence of Andrew Luck. Other topics focus more on the big picture, like the quarterback situations in Jacksonville and Kansas City.
It's easy to overreact either positively or negatively to what happened in the last month in training camp, preseason action and the fallout of cutdown days. The key is making sense of it all with an understanding that many situations are fluid.
T.Y. Hilton and Frank Gore Are in Big Trouble Without Andrew Luck
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You can't go from starting Andrew Luck to starting Scott Tolzien and expect the drop-off to be manageable.
In the last week, the Indianapolis Colts announced that Luck would come off the physically unable to perform list, which opened the door to his returning within the first six weeks of the season. That minor piece of positive news was quickly overshadowed by general manager Chris Ballard's announcement that Luck is out for Week 1 with no timetable because he's still in the training phase, according to Mike Chappell of Indysportscentral.com.
Other than keeping him on the active roster for the first six weeks, taking Luck off the PUP list means he's finally eligible to practice, although it doesn't mean he's jumping right back into normal drills and preparation with his teammates. It's fair to assume Luck isn't a lock for Week 2 or even Week 3.
The biggest concern outside of Luck is what it does to the fantasy value of T.Y. Hilton. Last season, Hilton led the NFL in receiving yards and was the No. 5 fantasy WR with 17.1 fantasy points per game in 15 games with Luck. If you go back to Luck's last extended absence, which took place from Weeks 11-17 in 2015, Hilton was the No. 34 fantasy WR with just 11.4 fantasy points per game during that span.
Another player who could be negatively affected by the absence of Luck is Frank Gore. In 2016, Gore finished as the No. 12 fantasy RB with 13.4 fantasy points per game. When Luck missed Weeks 11-17 in 2015, Gore didn't slip as badly as Hilton, but he was still down at No. 19 at RB with 11.4 fantasy points per game. Gore also made up for Luck's absence with the volume of 112 carries and 14 receptions in that seven-game span.
Besides the hits taken by Hilton and Gore, any absence by Luck eliminates players he could potentially boost for fantasy like Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle. The Colts aren't a good team without Luck, and it crushes the high hopes for their most prominent fantasy options.
BS Meter on Luck's absence severely affecting the Colts: 1/10
No Preseason Action for Le'Veon Bell Is a Concern
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If you check Le'Veon Bell's Twitter mentions over the last month, you'll see a lot of angry fans reacting to his absence from training camp and the preseason. To Bell's credit, he's taken it in stride knowing he'd report to the team before the regular season got underway. That's what he did Sept. 1 before signing his franchise tender Sept. 4.
Should you be worried about Bell not being in football shape? He told Aditi Kinkhabwala of NFL Network he was "a little winded" after his workout Monday, although he added he'd be ready for a "full load on Sunday." Bell will get a normal week of practice heading into the team's Week 1 matchup with the Cleveland Browns, so there doesn't appear to be any concern about Bell's getting off to a strong start.
From a long-term standpoint, it's justified to feel even better about Bell. Over his first four seasons, Bell averaged 19.3 carries per game and 4.8 receptions per game (47 total games). That volume is probably part of the reason the Steelers have trepidation in giving Bell a long-term deal.
If you think about all those touches, you should be happy he hasn't taken a hit or any meaningless reps in the offseason and preseason. It should keep him that much fresher in the fantasy playoff weeks.
Bell doesn't need reps to learn the offense, and it's not like the Steelers have made sweeping changes to their personnel. Staying healthy for the season is the biggest priority. Any extra rest helps, even if it comes from missing the preseason. He'll be just fine.
BS Meter on concern for Bell: 2/10
Rex Burkhead Will Be an Every-Week Fantasy Starter
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Would it shock anyone to see Rex Burkhead emerge as the best fantasy option in New England's backfield? He's a reliable pass-catcher who can carry the ball with success as needed. No one is mistaking him for a three-down or even two-down back on a weekly basis, but he may have the most well-rounded skill set of any Patriots ball-carrier.
The key to his fantasy value may be his receiving skills. Both James White and Dion Lewis have been active parts of the passing attack in the last two seasons, but they've never been called upon to run the ball often. They both set career highs in carries last season, with White at 39 and Lewis at 64. Burkhead's busiest season as a runner was also last year (74 carries in Cincinnati), but he's better suited to run between the tackles at 5'10'', 210 pounds.
Another reason for optimism on Burkhead is the uncertainty surrounding Mike Gillislee. While Gillislee looks like the obvious choice to take on the most carries, he's never had more than 101 in a season and has just 154 total carries since entering the league in 2013. Following the third preseason game, head coach Bill Belichick said Gillislee "still has quite a ways to go" since Gillislee missed time during offseason workouts and training camp, according to Zack Cox of NESN.com.
This may be one of the toughest backfields to diagnose for fantasy production. Gillislee might wind up as the leader in carries by the end of the season, but Burkhead could be the most consistent fantasy option thanks to his wider range of talent. That could make him a solid RB3/flex option in PPR formats.
BS Meter on Burkhead as a weekly starter: 3/10
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Patrick Mahomes Should Start over Alex Smith
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When the Kansas City Chiefs traded their 2017 first-round, 2017 third-round, and 2018 first-round picks to the Buffalo Bills to take Patrick Mahomes with the No. 10 overall pick in 2017, the clock started ticking on Alex Smith's tenure as the starter.
Smith enters the 2017 season on the fourth year of a five-year deal worth $76 million, including $45 million guaranteed. In four years with the team, he led the Chiefs to three playoff appearances, including a 2016 AFC West division crown. But he has just a single playoff victory and hasn't advanced past the divisional round.
During his time in Kansas City, Smith completed at least 65 percent of his attempts in the last three seasons. But he never threw for more than 3,502 yards, and he attempted at least 500 passes just once (2013). To his credit, Smith's eight interceptions in 2016 were the most he's thrown in the last six years. However, he's never thrown for more than 23 TDs in any season and hit the 20-TD mark just twice since entering the league in 2005.
Smith has be a fine QB with a low ceiling. That's not good enough to take this team deep into the playoffs, and with how competitive the AFC West and conference should be as a whole, the Chiefs aren't a lock to make it to the postseason.
If it's hard to get excited about Smith, it's easy to understand why you may not want to be connected to him in fantasy. Obviously, you can't rely on him as even a fantasy backup, but the bigger concern is what he takes away from his teammate you might be interested in: Tyreek Hill.
Smith doesn't have a big arm and doesn't zip passes into tight windows. Hill is being asked to play a much bigger role as the lead WR in only his second season without much help around him other than TE Travis Kelce. Smith might be accurate, but the low volume is a concern, and that does cut down on the margin of error if Smith or Hill struggles.
Mahomes was never expected to challenge Smith for the starting job in the preseason. According to Adam Teicher of ESPN.com, GM Brett Veach said: "There is no gray area. Alex is so far advanced from the mental side of things in regard to his ability to read coverages, to shift us out of plays and really play the chess game. He's so far ahead of where Pat is. I don't think it's even close right now."
It may not be close right now, but Mahomes has more raw ability and a much higher ceiling. Will the Chiefs consider a move if the team struggles or needs a boost in a hotly contested playoff race? Back in 2012, Smith had to sit due to a concussion and never regained his job from Colin Kaepernick, as he ended up leading the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl.
Don't be surprised if the Chiefs are faced with a similar decision at some point in 2017. It might be just the boost they need.
BS meter on Mahomes as a better starting option than Smith: 4/10
Derrick Henry Is a Serious Threat to DeMarco Murray
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In his first season in Tennessee, DeMarco Murray was busy and productive. He carried 293 times for 1,287 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and nine rushing TDs in addition to 53 receptions for 377 yards and three receiving TDs. Over his six-year career, Murray averages 236.7 carries, 1,086 rushing yards, 44.5 receptions and 315.8 receiving yards per season.
When the Titans drafted Derrick Henry 45th overall in 2016, it made sense to consider him as a strong backup to Murray as well as an investment in the future. He carried 110 times for 490 yards (4.5 YPC) as a rookie, but three of his double-digit carry games came after Week 7. With an increased role toward the end of 2016, there's been reason to believe Henry would see a big jump in touches in 2017.
That assumption would make more sense if Murray's production dipped significantly, but it didn't, and the Titans shouldn't go away from their most productive player just because they have Henry. Murray is still a better all-around back than Henry and should be the featured option barring an injury or clear drop-off in performance.
As fantasy draft season comes to a close, Murray's ADP of 15.2/RB8 is fair, if not a little low. Meanwhile, Henry's ADP of 77.8/RB32 is an indicator he could be a regular RB3/flex option, which is a strong assumption. Henry's stock would obviously rise if Murray were to go down, but expecting the same kind of production is overlooking the talent gap between the two.
BS Meter on Henry as a serious threat to Murray: 5/10
Chris Carson Was a Preseason Fluke
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Figuring out the difference between an August star and a regular-season performer can be tricky. Hitting on an out-of-nowhere contributor can take your fantasy squad to new heights. It's what made Arian Foster one of the best fantasy stories, as he went from an undrafted player to one of the best RBs in the league over a five-year stretch. Do the Seahawks have a similar story in seventh-round rookie Chris Carson?
Thomas Rawls was an undrafted RB in 2015, but he made waves in that preseason for the Seahawks and eventually found himself as the team's lead back when Marshawn Lynch dealt with multiple injuries. He rushed for 830 yards and four TDs on 147 carries (5.6 yards per carry), which helped cushion the blow of losing Lynch.
Unlike 2015, the Seahawks aren't dealing with major injury concerns to open the season, so Carson has a bigger mountain to climb to earn carries from Eddie Lacy and Rawls. He impressed the team and coaching staff with his performance over the last month. Carson worked with the first-team offense in preseason games and practices when Rawls and C.J. Prosise missed some time due to injuries.
Lacy earned a lot of attention because of his past success in Green Bay but also due to his weight requirements, which triggered bonuses in his contract. However, Lacy was far from impressive in the preseason with 14 carries for 51 yards (3.6 YPC). Meanwhile, Carson carried 24 times for 102 yards (4.2 YPC).
Rawls and Prosise appeared in a total of 15 games last season. Lacy missed 11 games as a member of the Packers in 2016. Even though they are healthy now, injury concerns are there for all three. That is why Carson can't be overlooked, even if he is fourth on the depth chart.
While Lacy and Rawls are considered the 1A/1B lead backs, Prosise should be the team's primary pass-catcher and third-down back, so Carson may struggle to get consistent carries as long as Lacy and Rawls stay healthy.
Since neither Lacy nor Rawls made a strong case to be the lead back in the preseason, the Seahawks may keep their options open and allow the best man to take the job. This is a fluid situation, but it's one Carson can work his way into if he follows up on his preseason performance.
BS Meter on Carson as a preseason fluke: 6/10
Allen Robinson's Value Is Hurt by the Jaguars Sticking with Blake Bortles
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After the second preseason game, the Jaguars acknowledged the starting QB job was open, which was more of an indictment of Blake Bortles than an endorsement of Chad Henne.
Henne got the start in the third preseason game, but Bortles still got work with the first-string offense in the second half. Apparently, Bortles did enough in that performance (12-of-16 for 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) to earn the starting job back for the season opener against the Houston Texans. Was the competition real or just a motivational tactic to get Bortles on track?
Either way, head coach Doug Marrone is backing Bortles with confidence-inspiring statements like his Aug. 28 comments to John Oehser of Jaguars.com: "I think he's doing a nice job, I really do. I think this is, for me personally, the best I've seen him."
Should this make you feel better about the Jaguars' passing attack, specifically Allen Robinson? Probably not. Bortles has yet to complete 59 percent of his passes in a season and saw his yards drop from 4,428 in 2015 to 3,905 in 2016 despite 19 more attempts. He's thrown at least 16 interceptions in each of his three seasons and lost 12 fumbles during that time.
Just because the Jaguars are sticking with Bortles for the season opener doesn't mean he's a lock to keep the starting job. In fact, opening the competition back up during the middle of the preseason should be a clear indication he doesn't have a strong grasp on his role atop the depth chart.
Would a move to Henne help Robinson's fantasy value? Not in a significant way, but it might limit the turnovers, which have been a major problem for Bortles. Hopefully, the Jaguars keep an open mind. They have a strong roster outside of the QB spot and might have their biggest potential window to contend in the division thanks to the uncertainty of Andrew Luck's return.
BS Meter on Allen Robinson's fantasy value being hurt by Blake Bortles: 7/10
Cameron Meredith's Injury Won't Affect Jordan Howard
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Jordan Howard didn't start for the Chicago Bears to open his rookie season, yet he finished second in rushing with 1,313 yards (5.2 yards per carry) on a team that went 3-13. Asking him to do that again in the same circumstances would have been difficult, but his role on the team is even more magnified after the events of the preseason.
The Bears let top WR Alshon Jeffery exit via free agency, which wasn't a surprise, as they were in a rebuilding mode. Plus, they had an emerging talent in Cameron Meredith to take over the top spot on the depth chart following an impressive 2016 campaign.
In the team's third preseason game, Meredith suffered a torn ACL that will cost him the entire 2017 season. That leaves the Bears with Kevin White and Kendall Wright as the best options. White looks like a shell of the player who was drafted No. 7 overall in 2015 following two injury-plagued seasons. Wright's production dipped in a big way in the last three seasons with the Tennessee Titans after he posted 94 receptions for 1,079 yards and two TDs in 2013.
The Bears aren't giving much help to their QBs with those two WRs leading the way. Veteran Mike Glennon will start the season, but he'll likely give way to rookie Mitchell Trubisky at some point in the year. Howard ran well even with Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley under center last season, but this year's situation will make him the primary weapon for defenses to focus on each week.
It would be hard for any RB to replicate the success Howard had in a bad situation last season, but now that things have gotten worse following the loss of Meredith, his value has to take a hit.
BS Meter on the loss of Meredith not hurting Howard's value: 8/10
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