2018 NFL Mock Draft: Latest Breakdown Before Week 1
While the focus for many football fans is on the opening week of the NFL regular season, it's never too early to begin looking ahead to the draft.
This time last year, DeShone Kizer was considered a top-five selection, which illustrates how much can change between now and the night of the draft. Kizer went 52nd overall to the Cleveland Browns.
Still, it's fun to at least discuss which players head into the new year near the top of draft boards. Below is a mock for the first round of the 2018 draft. The draft order is based on projected records compiled by the power rankings from Bleacher Report's Chris Simms on Aug. 28.
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Below the mock draft are breakdowns for four first-round talents whose stocks could potentially climb or fall over the coming months.
2018 Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts: Arden Key, DE, LSU
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
3. New York Jets: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
4. Cleveland Browns: Connor Williams, OT, Texas
5. Los Angeles Rams: Derwin James, S, Florida State
6. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
7. Buffalo Bills: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M
8. Chicago Bears: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
9. Carolina Panthers: Tarvarus McFadden, CB, Florida State
10. Cincinnati Bengals: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
11. Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
12. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama
14. Arizona Cardinals: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
15. Cleveland Browns (via Houston): Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
16. New Orleans Saints: Jerome Baker, LB, Ohio State
17. Minnesota Vikings: Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State
18. Washington Redskins: Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas
19. Denver Broncos: Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama
20. Green Bay Packers: Cameron Smith, LB, USC
21. Miami Dolphins: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
22. Detroit Lions: Dorance Armstrong, DE, Kansas
23. Baltimore Ravens: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
24. Tennessee Titans: Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State
25. Atlanta Falcons: Brian O'Neill, OT, Pittsburgh
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bradley Chubb, OLB, North Carolina State
27. Buffalo Bills (via Kansas City): Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
28. Oakland Raiders: Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State
29. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendall Joseph, LB, Clemson
30. Seattle Seahawks: Martinas Rankin, OT, Mississippi State
31. New York Giants: Trey Adams, OT, Washington
32. New England Patriots: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
Players to Watch
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Remember when Christian Hackenberg was considered a top-five pick in the 2016 NFL draft? ESPN's Todd McShay had Hackenberg going No. 1 overall in May 2015, and he wasn't the only one high on the Penn State quarterback. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller listed him as the fifth overall selection that same month.
Over the course of the 2016 season, Hackenberg's draft stock slipped so much Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson wrote he shouldn't be drafted at all. Miller had Hackenberg going 49th overall in his final mock draft, which was only two spots from where he landed (51st overall to the New York Jets).
It feels like Josh Rosen could be just as much of a wild card.
Like Hackenberg, Rosen showed early promise, throwing for 3,669 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions as a true freshman. A shoulder injury helped lead to an underwhelming sophomore season, though, as he had 1,915 yards passing, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. Rosen's completion percentage also slipped from 60.0 percent in 2015 to 59.3 percent in 2016.
NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah compared Rosen to New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning.
"Both of them are streaky passers capable of playing at a high level," he wrote. "They can throw with touch and timing while also possessing enough arm strength to fit balls into tight windows in the middle of the field."
Rosen is justifiably considered one of the top quarterbacks in the 2018 draft class, but Hackenberg is a perfect example that early potential doesn't always manifest into tangible results. Rosen's shoulder injury adds another variable as well.
Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame
Equanimeous St. Brown was all but anonymous as a true freshman in 2015, catching one pass for eight yards in two games. That's no longer the case after a breakout 2016 season in which he had 58 receptions for 961 yards and nine touchdowns.
PFF College Football showed St. Brown was one of the more consistent pass-catchers in college football last year:
At 6'5", 203 pounds, St. Brown will be a great red-zone target and present mismatches for many defensive backs. Mike Williams, who's two inches shorter, was a dynamic downfield threat for the national champion Clemson Tigers.
St. Brown got the 2017 season off to a nice start, catching four passes for 80 yards and a touchdown in Notre Dame's 49-16 win over Temple.
Since he's only a junior in 2017, it will likely take another big season for St. Brown to have NFL aspirations and forgo his final year of eligibility. Given both his physical and technical attributes, that could prove to be the case.
Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest
Since he doesn't play for a traditional college football power, Duke Ejiofor of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons has flown under the radar somewhat. He had 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 2015 and then made a big jump in 2016, finishing with 10.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss.
Pro Football Focus' Ryan Smith wrote Ejiofor's run defense has ticked upward as well. He earned grades of 45.1, 68.1 and 78.9 in that category in each of his first three years.
Ejiofor doesn't boast the ceiling of Harold Landry or Arden Key, but he could easily rise into the mid-to-late stages of the first round.
Ejiofor is a balanced defensive end who has gotten better every year in college. With leading tackler Marquel Lee gone from last year's team, he should play a starring role for Wake Forest.
Jerome Baker, OLB, Ohio State
"I made a lot of mistakes last year, and a lot of it I just made up for it with my speed and everything," Ohio State linebacker Jerome Baker said last month, per the Columbus Dispatch's Tim May. "... I lined up wrong most of the time. People who watch it on TV don't notice it, but watching the film, I lined up wrong pretty much all the time."
Despite that, Baker had 3.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions as a sophomore for the Buckeyes in 2016. Imagine what his numbers might have been had he had a better grasp of his position.
Miller described Baker as a "Ryan Shazier-like prospect" in his first 2018 mock draft in May. Shazier, an Ohio State alumnus, was a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2014.
Baker is as adept against the run as he is the pass, and the fact he could use his physical gifts to compensate for his technique issues last year speaks to his athleticism.
Baker's draft stock climbed significantly last season, and a similar improvement could see him flirting with the top 10 by the end of the year.
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