One Trade-Season Prediction for Each MLB Team
The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is more than six weeks away. That's enough time for sellers to become buyers and for buyers to become sellers, at least theoretically.
Still, we're deep enough in to make some educated predictions. Such as what's one trade-season move each MLB club will—or won't—make.
Inevitably, this involves a little forward-gazing and a dollop of gut feeling. Keep in mind, however, we're remaining in the realm of the plausible, so toss your three-team blockbuster that lands Mike Trout or the ghost of Ted Williams on the New York Yankees.
That said, multiple marquee names are about to speculatively change uniforms, so sensitive fans should buckle up.
American League East
1 of 6
New York Yankees: Trade for RHP Johnny Cueto
Speaking of the Yankees, it's been a stellar season for the Bronx Bombers, who sit in first place in the American League East.
The offense paces baseball in runs scored thanks in large part to the Ruthian emergence of right fielder Aaron Judge. The bullpen ranks second in the AL with a 2.88 ERA despite losing closer Aroldis Chapman to a rotator cuff injury.
The only question mark is the starting rotation. Michael Pineda and Luis Severino have emerged to lead the way, but ostensible ace Masahiro Tanaka sports an ugly 6.07 ERA.
With a loaded farm system, New York should go shopping for a No. 1-type pitcher to boost its October chances.
Two names that jump out are San Francisco Giants righty Johnny Cueto and Chicago White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana. We'll bank on Cueto since he's got an opt-out clause after the season and thus ought to come somewhat cheaper.
Boston Red Sox: Trade for 3B Todd Frazier
The Boston Red Sox have a frigid crater at the hot corner.
Pablo Sandoval, the starter by pay grade, is slashing .211/.265/.367. As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald put it, "If only this albatross could learn to fly."
Various backup options, including Josh Rutledge and Deven Marrero, don't inspire confidence.
Boston shouldn't mortgage the farm, but impending free agents such as the Kansas City Royals' Mike Moustakas or the White Sox's Todd Frazier should be squarely on their radar. Frazier, in particular, won't cost too much due to his .214 average, but he brings the memory of his 40-homer 2016 season.
Tampa Bay Rays: Don't Trade a Starting Pitcher
The pressure will be on the small-market Tampa Bay Rays to deal a starting pitcher such as Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi.
The demand for quality arms is always high, and the Rays will never be able to compete financially with the likes of Boston and New York.
Still, the Rays are above .500 and within striking distance of a wild-card berth. They ought to resist the urge to sell big and instead see if they can slip into the October dance.
Baltimore Orioles: Trade for LHP Jason Vargas
The Baltimore Orioles are on the fringe of the playoff picture. Their minus-48 run differential doesn't bode well, but they're unlikely to engage in a sell-off.
Instead, the O's should look to bolster a rotation that ranks last in the AL in ERA and is an undeniable liability.
Baltimore's farm system is too thin to snag a Cueto or Quintana, but what about Royals right-hander Jason Vargas?
An impending free agent with a career 4.06 ERA and unimpressive fastball, Vargas boasts a 2.18 ERA this season. Baltimore could nab him for less than an arm and a leg, with the hope he continues his 2017 wizardry.
Toronto Blue Jays: Don't Trade 3B Josh Donaldson
This may sound obvious, but it's worth saying: As disheartening as their season has been, the Toronto Blue Jays aren't moving Josh Donaldson.
Yes, the 2015 AL MVP could net a gaudy return, despite the calf issues he's battled this season. Granted, he's 31 years old and set to become a free agent after the 2018 campaign.
The Jays, however, are too close to contention to sell their franchise player. Wisely or not, Donaldson will remain north of the border.
American League Central
2 of 6
Minnesota Twins: Stand Pat
After losing 103 games in 2016, everyone expected the Minnesota Twins to be an afterthought.
Instead, the Twinkies sit in first place in the AL Central as we approach mid-June and plated 20 runs on 28 hits Tuesday.
Don't expect Minnesota to shift into buy mode at the deadline, not with a minus-26 run differential.
At the same time, if they remain around .500, the Twins could hold off on selling pieces such as right-hander Ervin Santana and instead ride this season to its surprising-if-unspectacular conclusion.
Cleveland Indians: Trade for RHP Edinson Volquez
The defending AL champion Cleveland Indians are hovering around .500 and looking up at the Twins, "thanks" partly to a starting rotation that's been beset by injuries and underperformance and ranks next-to-last in the Junior Circuit with a 4.85 ERA.
The Indians aren't likely to shell out for a top-tier target such as Quintana, but the Miami Marlins' Edinson Volquez, who sports a 3.41 ERA through 12 starts and recently twirled a no-hitter, could be attainable.
Detroit Tigers: Trade OF J.D. Martinez
At 30-33, the Detroit Tigers look like aging also-rans. Add a dilapidated farm and you've got a rebuild that's overdue.
The Tigers won't blow it all up by the end of July, but they should absolutely move outfielder J.D. Martinez, an impending free agent who's hitting .303 with a 1.110 OPS.
"We want him to hit, and hopefully he does, and if that happens and we're winning, then great," said general manager Al Avila, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. "If there's another move to make, then we'll look at it at that point."
Kansas City Royals: Trade LHP Jason Vargas
The Royals have a number of impending free agents, including Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer and outfielder Lorenzo Cain. Reliever Kelvin Herrera is another enticing chip.
As noted, however, Vargas is the biggest sell-high candidate on K.C.'s roster, meaning he should be the first player sold.
Chicago White Sox: Trade LHP Jose Quintana
The White Sox have already restocked their minor league system and should continue the process up to and beyond July 31.
That means shopping the likes of Frazier and closer David Robertson. Mostly, though, it means finding a home for Quintana.
No, Quintana's 5.30 ERA and 2-9 record don't leap off the statsheet. On the other hand, the 28-year-old has been among the game's most reliable lefties, eclipsing 200 innings every year from 2013 to 2016 while never posting an ERA north of 3.51. He's also locked into a sweetheart deal that could run through 2020 with a pair of eminently affordable team options.
Given how many contenders will be after pitching, Chicago should command a hefty ransom for Quintana despite his uneven 2017 numbers.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Trade for RHP Gerrit Cole
With a plus-91 run differential and the best record in baseball, the Houston Astros are the toast of the AL.
Resurgent ace Dallas Keuchel is on the disabled list with a neck issue, however, and the 'Stros could be in the market for another arm.
Like, say, Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole.
An All-Star and top-five Cy Young Award finisher in 2014, Cole battled injuries last season and owns a 4.83 ERA through 13 starts in 2017. Nonetheless, Houston is "very interested" in the 26-year-old, as the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo noted in May.
Assuming a change of scenery nudges Cole toward his ace-like ways, he could vault the Astros into full-blown championship-favorite status.
Texas Rangers: Trade RHP Yu Darvish
After winning two straight division titles, the Texas Rangers are a .500 team and technically very much alive in the postseason hunt.
On the other hand, they're 11 games back of the Lone Star State rival Astros and aren't positioned for a deep run.
That means, painful as it is, they should shop right-hander Yu Darvish.
Darvish owns a 3.03 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 89 innings. He's also set to hit the open market after the season and missed the entire 2015 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
A long-term extension is risky. So is keeping Darvish in the hopes of making a legitimate October push. If the Rangers optimize the Japanese stud's value now and restock the farm, there will be no shortage of takers.
Los Angeles Angels: Trade OF Cameron Maybin
The Los Angeles Angels are below .500, sport a minus-four run differential and are without the services of Mike Trout, who underwent thumb surgery in late May.
At the same time, the Halos need to resurrect an abysmal MiLB system.
Cameron Maybin won't do that by himself, but the veteran outfielder could net something of value on the strength of his .377 on-base percentage and 19 stolen bases.
Seattle Mariners: Stand Pat
The Seattle Mariners have been absolutely hosed by injuries, particularly in the starting rotation.
That said, they're just under .500 and in the wild-card mix. As Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe noted, "Seattle's core is under club control through at least next year, so it's difficult to envision [general manager Jerry] Dipoto blowing things up completely."
Expect the M's to be mostly inactive while hoping for vastly better injury luck.
Oakland Athletics: Trade 1B Yonder Alonso
The Oakland A's have a number of potential trade chips, including right-hander Sonny Gray and infielder Jed Lowrie.
Yonder Alonso figures to be the first man on the block, however, and it'd be shocking if executive vice president Billy Beane doesn't move him by July 31.
The 30-year-old sports a lifetime .746 OPS but has raised that figure to 1.052 this season while clubbing 16 homers and hitting .310.
He's a free-agent-to-be on a low-budget team famous for flipping veterans. If his bags aren't partially packed, they should be.
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National League East
4 of 6
Washington Nationals: Trade for RHP David Robertson
The Washington Nationals are on a clear division-title trajectory with few glaring holes save an experienced closer (yeah, "save" pun totally intended).
The White Sox are a rebuilding team with an experienced closer in David Robertson, and they successfully cut a deal with the Nats last winter for outfielder Adam Eaton.
Deadline marriages don't get more obvious than this.
New York Mets: Trade OF Jay Bruce
The New York Mets have won six of their last 10 to creep within five games of .500.
They've nearly lost contact with Washington, however, and could struggle to remain in the wild-card mix.
No one's seriously suggesting the Mets should blow up their enviable if injury-prone pitching core, but New York should cash in some veteran bats.
Consider Jay Bruce, who has 17 homers through 58 games and is on a 40-plus homer pace. New York couldn't move the 30-year-old masher in the offseason, but will find power-starved takers this summer.
Miami Marlins: Trade RHP Edinson Volquez
Starting pitching hasn't been Miami's strength, so it seems odd for the Fish to ship it away.
As stated, though, Volquez is riding high off his recent no-hitter and an ERA that's nearly a full point lower than his career mark.
He won't singlehandedly restock Miami's farm, but this is a sell-high moment for a Marlins team caught in a typical state of dysfunctional, non-contending limbo.
Atlanta Braves: Trade 2B Brandon Phillips
The Atlanta Braves have multiple trade chips on their roster, including left-hander Jaime Garcia and outfielder Matt Kemp.
Brandon Phillips might be the most expendable veteran of value, as he's hitting .296 but also blocking touted second base prospect Ozzie Albies.
The Braves might not want to rush Albies, who hasn't lit the world on fire since a promotion to Triple-A. At some point soon, however, Atlanta will want a look at its keystone sacker of the future, and will dangle Phillips in the process.
Philadelphia Phillies: Trade RHP Pat Neshek
Relief pitchers are always a coveted commodity at the deadline, and the Philadelphia Phillies are sitting on a good one.
Signed this winter on a one-year, $6.5 million deal, Pat Neshek owns a minuscule 0.75 ERA through 24 innings for the Phillies. Count the 36-year-old among those who assume he'll be traded by the last-place Phils.
"It would be really cool to stay around here," Neshek said, per Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. "I like it here. I feel very comfortable here. But if that happens...I'm sure it will happen."
National League Central
5 of 6
Milwaukee Brewers: Stand Pat
What a great story the Milwaukee Brewers have been. As we approach the midpoint in June, they're in first place in the National League Central, one game ahead of the defending champion Chicago Cubs.
No one expects it to last, but we're past the land of eye-rolling and small-sample caveats.
An extended losing streak could shift the Brew Crew into sell mode, but for now Milwaukee may opt to let it roll through July and beyond.
That said, don't expect Milwaukee to unload any significant minor leaguers from an emerging farm system. More likely, the Brewers will mix prospects such as recently called-up left-hander Josh Hader and outfielder Lewis Brinson with their existing roster and see if the magic continues.
Chicago Cubs: Trade for LHP Jose Quintana
No one saw the Cubs sputtering at .500 and chasing the Brewers at this point. It isn't time for Chicago to panic, but it is time for action.
One obvious area where the Cubbies can improve is the starting rotation, which owns a 4.68 ERA, "good" for 21st in the game. Of Chicago's starters, only Jon Lester (3.89 ERA) owns an ERA south of 4.00.
We've already outlined the merits of the White Sox's Quintana, who comes with a sterling track record and years of affordable control, but may not force the Cubs to completely gut their minor league ranks because of his iffy 2017 numbers.
St. Louis Cardinals: Trade RHP Trevor Rosenthal
It's a bitter truth for a franchise that hasn't endured a losing season in a decade, but the 2017 St. Louis Cardinals walk, look and chirp like sellers.
They're three games under .500. They've got a minus-11 run differential. The punchless offense ranks 24th in slugging percentage and 26th in runs scored.
Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch listed first baseman Matt Carpenter and pitchers Lance Lynn and Trevor Rosenthal as possible trade pieces.
Of those, Rosenthal—who boasts a 3.80 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 23.2 innings—seems the most likely candidate, along with closer Seung Hwan Oh.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Trade RHP Gerrit Cole
Yes, the Bucs have won four straight. They're mired five games under .500, however, and need to hit the reset button on a disappointing season defined by outfielder Starling Marte's 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension.
Cole hasn't been perfect, as mentioned, but with pitching at a premium, he should net a nice return.
Cincinnati Reds: Trade SS Zack Cozart
Zack Cozart is slashing .324/.411/.571 for the Cincinnati Reds and checks in as the second-best defensive shortstop in baseball, per FanGraphs.
He's also an impending free agent, meaning now is the time for the rebuilding Reds to get something back for the 31-year-old, and we don't mean a donkey.
National League West
6 of 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: Trade for RHP Yu Darvish
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best team ERA in baseball. At the same time, as CBSSports.com's Dayn Perry noted, "There's some organizational weariness when it comes to this run of early to semi-early playoff exits, and assuming the team's still in the postseason mix six weeks from now, bold steps might be taken to make this roster as strong and playoff-ready as possible."
Like, for example, giving up significant minor league talent to add Darvish alongside ace Clayton Kershaw.
Unless and until it becomes reality, Dodgers fans can dream.
Colorado Rockies: Trade for OF John Jaso
This isn't the sexiest prediction for a Colorado Rockies team that's tied for first place and appears on track for its first postseason appearance since 2009.
Colorado, though, could use an infusion of bench production. Enter the Pirates' John Jaso.
As Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter pointed out June 9, "Jaso is also 4-for-12 with a home run as a pinch hitter, while Rockies pinch hitters have struggled to a .164 average (11-for-67) with a 33.8 percent strikeout rate."
Again, we're not talking about a game-changer, but sometimes incremental improvements can make all the difference.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade for RHP Ryan Madson
Like Colorado, the Arizona Diamondbacks are legitimate players in the NL West.
The Snakes' biggest need may be in the bullpen, where Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin have been excellent but closer Fernando Rodney sports a suspect 5.32 ERA.
Neshek, Rosenthal and Oh are options, but Arizona may target Oakland right-hander Ryan Madson, who has a 2.55 ERA and racked up 30 saves last season with the A's.
San Diego Padres: Trade LHP Brad Hand
The San Diego Padres are what they were supposed to be: a rebuilding club with a decent shot at losing 100 games.
Naturally, then, the Friars will be trade-season sellers. At the top of their for-sale list, find reliever Brad Hand.
Through 34.2 innings, the 27-year-old has a 3.12 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. He's got a case to be the Padres' lone All-Star, assuming he isn't dealt first.
San Francisco Giants: Trade RHP Johnny Cueto
Sorry, Giants fans. It's just not your year.
There are bright spots, including Buster Posey's chase for a second career batting title, but the Orange and Black should wave a white flag by the deadline and restock a so-so farm.
Cueto, with his All-Star credentials and looming opt-out, is an obvious ace on the block, and the club can always re-sign him next winter if they think a return to even-year contention is in the cards.
All standings and statistics current as of Tuesday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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