Deal or No Deal: MLB Trade Predictions 2 Months from the Deadline
The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is slightly more than two months away, and a lot can change in the interim.
Still, let's don our gazing-ahead goggles and outline eight deals that will or won't be consummated by July 31 based on the latest standings, credible rumors and, as ever, a dash of gut feeling.
Feel free to weigh in with your own deal-or-no-deal musings and to check back here this summer to remind us how wrong (or possibly right) we were.
Deal: Oakland A's Trade Yonder Alonso to New York Yankees
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Through 41 games, Yonder Alonso boasts a 1.020 OPS with 14 home runs for the Oakland Athletics.
Oakland, meanwhile, is mired at 22-28 and should be a seller come July.
The 30-year-old Alonso will be a free agent after the season and is easily outpacing the numbers he's put up since breaking into MLB in 2010.
A massive return isn't on the cards for A's executive Billy Beane. That said, a contender in need of a first-base power bat could come knocking.
Enter the New York Yankees, who have relied on the injured Greg Bird (.100/.250/.200) and the ineffective Chris Carter (.188/.288/.347).
The Yanks won't dangle any of their coveted top prospects, but they could reach into a deep farm system and swap the likes of outfielder Dustin Fowler and/or first baseman/outfielder Tyler Austin.
No Deal: Detroit Tigers Hold on to Their Pieces
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In December, yours truly argued the Detroit Tigers should switch into sell mode. Instead, they opted to go for it.
At 24-27, the Tigers aren't buried. They sit just four games back of first-place Minnesota Twins in the American League Central. And yeah, that's the Twins we're talking about, a club that lost 103 games in 2016.
Detroit has a number of tradable veterans, including outfielder J.D. Martinez, and a barren farm system.
Unless someone (cough, the AL champion Cleveland Indians) runs away with the division, however, the Tigers are poised to stand pat, hoping for one more postseason run.
Is that advisable? No. But it's the path they followed this winter, and they could pursue it through the dog days.
Deal: Chicago White Sox Trade David Robertson to Washington Nationals
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At 31-19, the Washington Nationals hold a comfortable 8.5-game lead in the National League East. Divisions aren't sealed in late May, but things are looking swell for the Nats.
That said, Washington is without an established closer. Koda Glover has claimed the job after Blake Treinen and Shawn Kelley lost it, but there's no guarantee the 24-year-old will maintain over the long haul.
Instead, the Nationals should look to fortify their lone glaring weakness by trading for an established ninth-inning arm.
Like, say, the Chicago White Sox's David Robertson, who owns a 2.29 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 19.2 innings, has converted eight of nine save opportunities and held opponents to a .157 average.
It might take a top-five prospect such as shortstop Carter Kieboom or outfielder Andrew Stevenson to get a deal done, especially since Robertson is signed through 2018.
If the Nats want to finally advance past the division series, however, and optimize their Bryce Harper window, they'll do what it takes.
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No Deal: Pittsburgh Pirates Don't Move Andrew McCutchen
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are adrift at 24-28, "good" for last place in the NL Central.
With outfielder Starling Marte serving an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, the Bucs have leaned on Andrew McCutchen, with mixed results to put it kindly.
Despite a walk-off homer on Memorial Day, the 30-year-old is hitting .215 with a .688 OPS, hardly the type of stat line that makes offense-hungry contenders open the prospect vaults.
Manager Clint Hurdle summed it up succinctly, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "It's hard for Andrew right now."
A less-hard month or two could boost the former NL MVP's value and motivate prospective buyers.
For now, though, it appears Pittsburgh is stuck with McCutchen, which would have been an absurd statement a couple of years ago.
Deal: Chicago White Sox Trade Jose Quintana to Houston Astros
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Jose Quintana's name churned through the rumor mill last offseason, but the left-hander remained with the White Sox. That will probably change by the end of July.
Yes, Quintana owns a less than stellar 4.82 ERA through 10 starts. His 3.82 FIP suggests a degree of misfortune, though, and he's locked into an affordable contract with team options through 2020.
Per Phil Rogers of MLB.com, the Houston Astros were linked to Quintana over the winter, and they could bring him on to solidify their status as Junior Circuit contenders.
Chicago once demanded Houston's top two prospects, right-hander Francis Martes and outfielder Kyle Tucker, per sportswriter Peter Gammons.
Given Quintana's struggles, the asking price may inch southward. If so, expect the 'Stros to pounce.
No Deal: Texas Rangers Don't Trade Yu Darvish
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Speaking of Lone Star State contenders, the Texas Rangers sit at 25-27, 11 games back of Houston in the AL West.
The Rangers could still contend for a wild-card spot at least, but if they don't slide into the picture, they could also dangle their assets.
That includes ace right-hander Yu Darvish, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
Darvish has a limited no-trade clause, Rosenthal noted, but is in his contract year. If Texas is treading water and the Japanese ace is dealing, it's possible the club would flip him for an eye-popping haul.
As FanGraphs' Dave Cameron wrote: "The market has provided a pretty clear indicator of what renting an ace costs; a top 50-ish prospect plus a couple of add-on pieces that have upside."
Still, this seems unlikely. These Rangers have won two straight division titles. Waving a white flag, however pragmatic, isn't in their DNA.
To put it another way: Surrender may be the one thing that isn't bigger in Texas.
Deal: Kansas City Royals Initiate a Sell-off
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At 21-29, the Kansas City Royals have the worst record in the American League.
Yes, they won a pennant in 2014 and a World Series in 2015. Sure, eight games under .500 is far from insurmountable at this early stage.
The Royals, though, can't afford to twiddle their thumbs. First baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, outfielder Lorenzo Cain and shortstop Alcides Escobar are all set to hit free agency.
That's a massive chunk of the club's championship core, and it's almost certain K.C. won't be able to retain it all.
Plus, left-hander Jason Vargas is enjoying a career year with a 2.39 ERA, and reliever Kelvin Herrera could solidify any bullpen.
The Royals shouldn't give away their assets. It's time to switch into sell mode, though, and restock a farm system that Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked No. 29 in the game.
No Deal: Milwaukee Brewers Keep Ryan Braun
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It wouldn't be trade-rumor season without Ryan Braun.
The Milwaukee Brewers slugger has been a perennial subject of speculation, but he remains a member of the rebuilding Crew.
It helps that the 27-24 Brewers are inexplicably in first place in the NL Central. Even if/when they cede to the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, they may hold on to Braun.
The 33-year-old is slashing .262/.350/.524 with seven home runs in 30 games but landed on the disabled list with a calf injury May 26.
Assuming he returns healthy, he'll be a coveted asset, despite his age and performance-enhancing drug baggage.
The Brewers don't have to deal him yet, though. He's inked through 2020 with a mutual option for 2021, and he remains the face of the franchise, warts and all.
At some point, the Brewers will probably ship Braun from the only MLB home he's known. They've held on this long, however, so why not ride it for another few months?
All statistics current as of Monday and courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
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