2017 Playoff Odds for Every MLB Team at Season's Quarter Mark
We've rumbled to the one-quarter mark of the 2017 MLB season. Nothing is decided, but a few things are beginning to come into focus.
For example, all 30 clubs' chances of qualifying for the postseason.
Yes, cold spells, hot streaks, injuries and trades will inevitably upend the balance of power. October dance cards aren't punched in mid-May.
Based on what we know now, however, let's take it division by division and dole out some playoff odds. Feel free to weigh in with your own thoughts and odds in the comments.
American League West
1 of 6
Houston Astros (28-12)
The Houston Astros have established themselves as the class of the American League West.
They're tied for tops in the Junior Circuit with 208 runs scored and are enjoying a resurgent season from 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, who improved to 7-0 Tuesday.
With a mix of veterans and young bats keying the offense, Houston appears primed for a return to the October stage.
Playoff Odds: 2-1
Los Angeles Angels (21-21)
Mike Trout is still on the Los Angeles Angels, and he's hitting like the MVP he is.
That's enough to keep the Halos afloat, but with a biceps injury sidelining ace Garrett Richards, this isn't much more than a .500 club.
Add a thin farm system and maxed-out budget, and you're looking at another wasted year of Trout's historic prime.
Playoff Odds: 8-1
Texas Rangers (20-20)
A lot has gone wrong for the Texas Rangers. Adrian Beltre has been out with a calf injury. Other key offensive pieces, including Rougned Odor and Mike Napoli, have struggled. Erstwhile closer Sam Dyson has been a mess. And Cole Hamels is out with a strained oblique.
Still, Texas sits at .500 with a plus-16 run differential. Yu Darvish and a resurgent Andrew Cashner front the rotation.
If they get Beltre back and the offense starts clicking, the Rangers could challenge for a wild-card slot, and possibly even push their Lone Star State rivals with a healthy rotation.
Playoff Odds: 5-1
Seattle Mariners (18-22)
Four-fifths of the Seattle Mariners' starting rotation is on the disabled list, including ace Felix Hernandez (shoulder) and emerging front-liner James Paxton (forearm). That's been enough to sink the ship despite an offense that ranks third in the AL with 194 runs scored behind veterans Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz and newcomers Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura.
It doesn't help that Haniger has been on the DL since late April with a strained oblique, and Cano recently went down with a strained quad, though. If all those pieces come back healthy and effective, the M's could make noise. At this point, however, that's an enormous "if."
Playoff Odds: 8-1
Oakland A's (17-22)
Yonder Alonso has been a legitimate sensation for the Oakland A's, posting a 1.007 OPS with 12 home runs.
Unfortunately for A's fans, that probably means he'll be dangled at the trade deadline, since there's little to no chance this team will be in serious contention come July behind a pitching staff that ranks 23rd in baseball with a 4.42 ERA.
Playoff Odds: 20-1
American League Central
2 of 6
Minnesota Twins (19-16)
The Minnesota Twins have been a great early story, rising from the ashes of a 103-loss season in 2016 to claim first place in the AL Central.
They also own a minus-seven run differential and rank in or near the bottom third in runs scored and team ERA. A regression is coming, in other words, and it likely won't be pretty.
Playoff Odds: 20-1
Cleveland Indians (20-18)
One year removed from a pennant, the Cleveland Indians are hanging above .500 but not exactly lighting the league on fire.
They rank 20th with 164 runs scored, and their starting pitching is dead last in the AL with a 4.95 ERA.
There's too much talent on the roster for the Tribe to stay down, highlighted by shortstop Francisco Lindor. Cleveland has looked vulnerable, though, no question about it.
Playoff Odds: 2-1
Detroit Tigers (18-19)
The Detroit Tigers eschewed a rebuild last winter and opted to make another run with their aging core. The results have been mixed.
Offensive anchor Miguel Cabrera has battled injuries, ace Justin Verlander sports an ERA north of 4.00 and the bullpen has been predictably awful.
Yes, the Tigers are clinging to the edge of contention. But their minus-12 run differential and sub-.500 record feel like harbingers rather the aberrations. Expect a delayed sell-off come the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
Playoff Odds: 8-1
Chicago White Sox (17-20)
After a strong start, the rebuilding Chicago White Sox have lost eight of their last 10. That's not surprising, nor should it trigger widespread hand-wringing on the South Side.
The Sox still have ample talent marinating in the minors and could get more if and when they unload left-hander Jose Quintana.
The future is bright. The chances of a playoff appearance this season, however, are dim.
Playoff Odds: 20-1
Kansas City Royals (16-22)
The good news: The Kansas City Royals have won six of their last 10 games.
The bad news: They own a minus-42 run differential, the worst mark in the American League.
At some point, K.C. has to decide whether to keep pushing or unload its cache of impending free agents, including outfielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas.
No one is running away with the Central, so it's possible the Royals could sneak into the picture. They dug an awfully big hole, however, and may not be able to scramble out.
Playoff Odds: 8-1
American League East
3 of 6
New York Yankees (23-13)
The youth movement is blossoming ahead of schedule in the Bronx, and the New York Yankees are reaping the rewards.
Right fielder Aaron Judge has led the charge with 14 home runs and a .320 average, catcher Gary Sanchez is back and swinging, key veterans have chipped in and there's more talent coming down the pike.
The Yanks may need to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline, and they've got the chips to do so. As constructed, however, they're primed for October.
Playoff Odds: 2-1
Baltimore Orioles (23-14)
There's ample pop in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, headlined by superstar Manny Machado, and 2011 first-round pick Dylan Bundy has seemingly put it all together in the starting rotation with a 2.26 ERA.
Losing star closer Zach Britton to a forearm injury hurts an otherwise stout bullpen, but the O's don't appear to be going away.
Playoff Odds: 4-1
Boston Red Sox (20-18)
The presumed favorites in the crowded AL East, the Boston Red Sox have faltered out of the gate.
Sure, they're above .500 and in the thick of the race, but this isn't the dominance many expected from a team loaded with offensive pieces and fresh off a blockbuster winter trade for left-hander Chris Sale.
Sale has been as advertised, yet fellow stud southpaw David Price remains on the shelf with elbow trouble, though his return is imminent.
Here's the bottom line: Boston may have disappointed, but there's simply too much talent for this team to not be a factor.
Playoff Odds: 3-1
Tampa Bay Rays (20-22)
The scrappy, small-market Tampa Bay Rays are off to a solid start. In fact, their plus-14 run differential suggests their record should probably be above .500.
The offense, in particular, has stood out, with Tampa Bay hitters clubbing the second-most home runs (56) in the American League.
Is that sustainable? Possibly not. But it could at least keep the Rays in contention long enough to prevent management from auctioning off top assets such as right-hander Chris Archer.
Playoff Odds: 6-1
Toronto Blue Jays (17-23)
The Toronto Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 to go from moribund to merely bad. That's a step in the right direction.
Still, the Jays are 18th in team ERA, 22nd in runs scored and 24th in OPS. Slugger Jose Bautista has shown signs of life, but franchise hitter Josh Donaldson is on the DL with a lingering calf issue.
It's too early to write off Toronto, but things are trending south north of the border.
Playoff Odds: 6-1
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National League West
4 of 6
Colorado Rockies (25-15)
The Colorado Rockies are for real.
They've scored the fifth-most runs in the National League. Add Coors Field and stir.
More impressively, they own the Senior's Circuit's best road ERA, thanks to a stellar bullpen and new manager Bud Black, a former pitcher and pitching coach.
We need to see it through the heat of summer, but a Rockies team that can pitch is a Skynet-is-self-aware situation. You've been warned.
Playoff Odds: 3-1
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-18)
After a disastrous 2016 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks are riding bouncebacks from first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and right-hander Zack Greinke to a postseason pace.
There's also been a culture change in the desert, with general manager Mike Hazen taking over for Dave Stewart, and manager Tony Lovullo replacing Chip Hale.
Add it up, and you've got a D-Backs squad that should be a wild-card player at least.
Playoff Odds: 3-1
Los Angeles Dodgers (22-18)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw and baseball's gaudiest payroll.
A third-place position isn't a great look, though L.A.'s plus-50 run differential indicates the record could be better.
The Rockies and Snakes aren't going anywhere, but the Dodgers have the depth and resources to remain the favorites, especially with rookie Cody Bellinger lighting the league ablaze.
Playoff Odds: 2-1
San Francisco Giants (17-24)
It's been a disappointing season by the Bay, where the San Francisco Giants have endured a revolving door in left field and a dirt-bike-induced injury to ace Madison Bumgarner.
The Giants have won five straight, including two against the rival Dodgers, and can never be counted out.
In an odd year and a competitive division, however, San Francisco will need some serious mojo and trade machinations to reach October.
Playoff Odds: 10-1
San Diego Padres (15-26)
The rebuilding San Diego Padres have budding talent on the roster, including young outfielders Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe.
They're also in the midst of a much-needed, full-scale rebuild. The chances of this club sniffing the postseason are roughly equivalent to the chances of a blizzard closing the San Diego Zoo.
Playoff Odds: 50-1
National League Central
5 of 6
St. Louis Cardinals (21-16)
With certain rivals in the Central scuffling, the St. Louis Cardinals are off to an excellent start thanks largely to a starting rotation that leads the NL with a 3.41 ERA.
That's the Cards for you—annual contenders, sure as night follows day. If you thought it was going to change this season, think again.
Playoff Odds: 2-1
Milwaukee Brewers (22-18)
The Milwaukee Brewers deserve credit for their above-.500 record. They're also due for a wet blanket at some point.
Yes, the Crew rank second in the NL in runs scored, but their pitching staff owns a pedestrian 4.24 ERA. Despite the presence of surprise slugger Eric Thames and veteran Ryan Braun, this is a rebuilding club.
The Brewers may not jettison all their pieces in July, but they won't seriously challenge for a playoff spot either.
Playoff Odds: 15-1
Chicago Cubs (19-19)
For North Side fans in a sadistic mood, here's a complete chronicling of the Chicago Cubs' woes. In short: They haven't caught the ball, hit the ball or pitched the ball nearly as well as they did last year.
"I don't think there's any reason to panic," right-hander Jake Arrieta told reporters Sunday after a 5-0 loss to St. Louis. "The talent we have here will correct itself and start to turn itself around."
He's right. This Cubs team is deep and loaded. This start is concerning, but it's foolish to bet against the defending champs.
Playoff Odds: 2-1
Cincinnati Reds (19-19)
Like Milwaukee, the Cincinnati Reds have overachieved out of the gate. Their starting pitchers also own the worst ERA in the game at 5.25, a fact that's going to catch up to them.
Perhaps it already has, as they've lost four straight. Reds fans who've enjoyed the ride thus far should start thinking about the prospects veterans such as shortstop Zack Cozart could net.
Playoff Odds: 30-1
Pittsburgh Pirates (16-23)
If you took center fielder Starling Marte's 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension as a bad omen, well, you were correct.
Little has gone right for the Pittsburgh Pirates since Marte's ignoble exit, and they sit in last place with a minus-42 run differential.
Hopes of a comeback from former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen have fizzled, and now right-hander Jameson Taillon is out after undergoing surgery for suspected testicular cancer.
The Bucs won three straight wild-card berths from 2013 to 2015, but they slipped below .500 last season. Look for that trend to continue.
Playoff Odds: 15-1
National League East
6 of 6
Washington Nationals (25-13)
If there's a sure thing in mid-May, it's the Washington Nationals.
Yes, injuries can hit. The Nats already lost center fielder Adam Eaton to a busted ACL.
But with an MVP-esque Bryce Harper leading baseball's highest-scoring offense and Max Scherzer at the helm of a strong starting rotation, Washington is the odds-on favorite in the NL East.
The Nats probably need to trade for a closer at some point, then set their sights on finally getting past the division series.
Playoff Odds: 1-2
New York Mets (16-22)
Injuries in the starting rotation have once again derailed the New York Mets, with ace Noah Syndergaard and lefty Steven Matz both on the disabled list.
Add the on- and off-field struggles of ex-stud Matt Harvey, and the Mets' former strength has turned into a glaring liability.
Oh, and slugger Yoenis Cespedes out with a hamstring injury, too.
A health renaissance could nudge New York into the wild-card mix. At the moment, however, things are bleak in Queens.
Playoff Odds: 10-1
Atlanta Braves (15-21)
The Atlanta Braves moved into a shiny new stadium but have played the part of a rebuilding also-ran.
First baseman Freddie Freeman is swinging like an MVP candidate, while veterans such as Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis can boost their trade value with continued production.
The biggest question for the Braves, though, is whether shortstop and preseason NL Rookie of the Year favorite Dansby Swanson can get on track after hitting a scant .194.
Playoff Odds: 40-1
Philadelphia Phillies (14-22)
The Philadelphia Phillies have some bright young pitching talent, but their staff is 25th in baseball with a 4.69 ERA.
They've also lost eight of their last 10 and are a dismal 6-14 on the road.
There are bright spots in the lineup, including second baseman Cesar Hernandez, and reasons for optimism in the future.
In the present, the Phils aren't going to play past Game 162.
Playoff Odds: 40-1
Miami Marlins (14-24)
In typical Miami Marlins fashion, the potential sale of the team has overshadowed any doings on the field. Maybe that's for the best.
Miami boasts an enviable outfield troika in Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton, but the pitching has been dismal.
With so much uncertainty surrounding the franchise, it's unlikely reinforcements are on the way. Expect more angst in Miami. What else is new?
Playoff Odds: 40-1
All statistics current as of Tuesday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
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