Boston Red Sox: David Price's Comeback Among 5 Reasons to Expect a Sox Breakout

In no time at all, the 2017 season has knocked the Boston Red Sox down from heavy AL East favorites to a team struggling to stay above .500.

Yet there are reasons for hope.

There are probably more than five, but there are surely at least five. This is known because—surprise!—it so happens that five reasons to expect a Red Sox breakout are spelled out ahead.

Enjoy.

David Price on the Comeback Trail

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The Red Sox have played the entire season without David Price. But not for much longer.

The left-hander is making his way back from an elbow strain that cropped up in spring training. He was last seen throwing 75 pitches in a simulated game Sunday. He'll next be seen on the mound for the Pawtucket Red Sox on Friday. 

"Looking to get between 85 and 90 [pitches] at that point, and then we'll re-evaluate the following Friday, and wouldn't rule out his return to us if everything goes according to plan," Red Sox manager John Farrell said this weekend, according to Trevor Hass of MLB.com.

Of course, expectations for Price's return can only go so high. The former Cy Young winner disappointed with a 3.99 ERA last season, the first of a seven-year, $217 million contract. And there's just no breathing easy with pitchers coming off arm injuries.

However, Boston's rotation will take whatever help it can get.

Chris Sale has dominated with a 2.15 ERA through eight starts, but the Red Sox's other starters have combined for a 5.22 ERA. Most of them have also struggled to eat innings, putting extra pressure on a bullpen that's beginning to show cracks.

Beyond Price's return, what can also help is...

Rick Porcello Is Figuring It Out

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While the Red Sox wait for one Cy Young winner to get healthy, it sure would be nice if their other Cy Young winner started pitching like one.

Rick Porcello didn't do that in April, posting a 4.75 ERA in five starts. He notably walked nine batters. That's nothing sinister by normal standards, but he didn't walk that many batters in any one month en route to his Cy Young last season.

May has brought better results. The right-hander has a 2.84 ERA in three starts and has walked nobody while striking out 20 in 19 innings.

Now all Porcello must figure out is how to keep hard contact at bay. His ground-ball percentage and hard-hit rate are worse than they've ever been, and his manager thinks he knows why.

"When he's elevated his four-seamer, he's been able to go to the bottom zone with his two-seamer," John Farrell said, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. "That's the most important pitch for him. It's more consistent location with his two-seamer overall."

Survey says: Porcello has been up with his sinker this season, particularly in May. But while that would be a major concern for most pitchers, it should be a fixable issue for a command artist like Porcello.

If Price and Porcello give the Red Sox a boost, all they'll need is some offense. And for that...

Mookie Betts Is Gearing Up for Another MVP Run

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Where the Red Sox have really struggled is on offense. The popular narrative says this is because nobody is filling David Ortiz's ample shoes.

Somewhat quietly, Mookie Betts is accepting the challenge.

After finishing as the runner-up to Mike Trout in last year's MVP voting, Betts got off to a rough start this season. The flu sidelined him early on, and he had just a .470 OPS through six games.

Since then? Betts has a .991 OPS with seven home runs and five stolen bases in 29 games, putting him on track for his best season yet on offense.

And after spending most of the year batting in the No. 3 hole, Betts is now back in the leadoff spot. The Red Sox taking their best hitter and moving him out of an RBI spot may seem counterintuitive, but if nothing else it's a spot where he's comfortable.

"I [hit leadoff] for the majority of last year and like I said, my whole life," Betts said, per Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. "So no, it's nothing really new."

The leadoff hole is also the ideal place to maximize Betts' on-base and baserunning talents. So lo and behold, the Red Sox have gotten the desired result. They were averaging 3.8 runs per game before moving Betts to leadoff. They've since been averaging 6.8 runs per game.

Meanwhile, another offensive boost is on the way...

Pablo Sandoval's Impending Return Is Actually a Good Thing

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Yes, really.

Three years in, there's still nothing about Pablo Sandoval's tenure that looks good on the surface. That includes this season, which has seen him post just a .646 OPS in 17 games before landing on the DL with a knee sprain.

But if nothing else, there's the good news that the injury won't keep Sandoval out for long. He should be back before the end of May.

Then there's this: Sandoval could actually get hot.

His surface numbers look bad, but Baseball Savant has a magic formula that suggests he's been one of the Red Sox's unluckiest hitters. The evidence in support of the idea centers around the quality of his contact. His average exit velocity is the highest it's been and his hart-hit rate is way higher than it's ever been.

If Sandoval can pick up where he left off, he could start collecting on some outstanding good luck. Even if he doesn't become a great hitter in the process, the Red Sox will welcome any improvement at third base.

From there, their offense could really take off...

The Offense Is Finding Its Stride

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The Red Sox led MLB in runs scored last season. This year, their average of 4.5 runs per game puts them right at the league average.

But this is changing.

The Red Sox offense has caught fire in May, averaging 5.6 runs per game with an .819 OPS that ranked sixth in the league going into Tuesday's action.

Betts is one hitter making this happen, but he's not alone. Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez have also been raking.

The catch is that the Red Sox did a good chunk of their heavy hitting in two games against the Minnesota Twins, scoring 28 runs on 32 hits. But things have generally been better on either side of that explosion, and the outburst as a whole was inevitable.

Even as they were struggling to score in April, the Red Sox at least had one of the top team OBPs in the league. Putting runners on base is the first step toward scoring runs. Hence, there's typically a strong correlation between OBP and runs scored.

So the runs were expected all along. Now they're here and should keep coming.

Data courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball.