Kentucky Derby 2017: Early Preakness Predictions After Churchill Downs Results

Let's just get this out of the way: Always Dreaming will win the Preakness. There is the only Preakness prediction that really matters.

OK, cool, enjoy your next article here at Bleacher Report.

No, wait. Don't go so soon. We should really talk about why Always Dreaming is going to win at Pimlico just like he did at Churchill Downs. For starters, let's relive his absolutely dominant performance from Saturday evening.

We turn to the great wordsmith, Ray Hudson of beIN Sports, to describe what you just saw:

Mr. Hudson strikes again.

It's hard to imagine drawing up a more perfect run than what Always Dreaming pulled off. Coming out of the No. 5 post, he burst ahead of the pack early, stayed in second up to the turn, took the lead, pulled away from the field on the straightaway and held off Lookin At Lee in the final stretch. 

That last section of the race is what bodes so well for Always Dreaming at the Preakness. Pimlico is the shortest track in the Triple Crown, so top speed and the ability to start strong and hold off the other contenders is vital. While it isn't impossible for deep closers to win the Preakness, it isn't the norm, either.

And Always Dreaming is a rare breed, as Dan Wolken of USA Today wrote:

"Always Dreaming is indeed a 'freak,' a term of endearment on the backside reserved for extremely fast horses who can carry their speed over distance. That was also the parlance used for his sire, Bodemeister, who opened up a five-length lead at the top of the stretch in the 2012 Kentucky Derby after contesting a blazing pace. But unlike his father, who got passed near the wire by I'll Have Another, Always Dreaming kept on going."

Of course, anything can happen in Baltimore. With a smaller field, other contenders may not get trapped in the large pack that can swallow horses whole in the Derby. And the muddy conditions—which clearly didn't bother Always Dreaming—may have adversely affected some of the other horses. In turn, they could run faster at the Preakness. 

And there's always the possibility that a fresh contender will emerge that didn't run at the Derby at all.

There's also the little fact of Always Dreaming's unpredictability. As Wolken noted, the colt became unruly and hard to control for his exercise rider this past week.

"I wasn't completely sure why," his trainer, Todd Pletcher, told Wolken. "The horse had galloped on a daily basis exceptionally well all winter and he was into his training but he wasn't rank like he was when he first got here. It was the first day you could see a difference in his personality."

Pletcher adjusted Always Dreaming's routine, and it clearly worked. But if the horse is jumpy in two weeks and burns too much energy before the Preakness, he could be prone to a poor performance.

But those are all ifs. On Saturday, Always Dreaming proved beyond any measure of doubt he was the superior horse at the Derby.

There's little reason to believe he won't do so again at the Preakness.