Preakness 2017: Early Predictions Post-Kentucky Derby

For the fifth straight year, the favorite galloped to the Kentucky Derby crown.

Always Dreaming navigated a sloppy track to near-perfection Saturday, defeating the field by 2 ¾ lengths to take the first Triple Crown race of 2017. Lookin At Lee (33-1) finished second, and third-place Battle of Midway (40-1) came in 7 ¾ lengths behind.

"He responded right away," jockey John Velazquez said of Always Dreaming in the winner's circle, per Steve Almasy of CNN. "It was a great feeling."

Listed at 5-1 in the morning line odds, Always Dreaming became the clear favorite as money came in Saturday. He went off at 9-2, with bettors (correctly) assuming he was well-equipped to handle the muddy track. Churchill Downs was a rain-soaked mess for most of the day, leaving some horses running in wetness for the first time in their careers.

It's the fifth straight year a favorite has won the Derby, a borderline unprecedented streak. Two of the last three have gone on to win the Preakness two weeks later, with American Pharoah pulling off a Triple Crown feat in 2015.

Position	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Lengths
1	Always Dreaming	John R. Velazquez	Todd A. Pletcher	-
2	Lookin At Lee	Corey Lanerie	Steven M. Asmussen	2 3/4
3	Battle of Midway	Flavien Prat	Jerry Hollendorfer	7 3/4
4	Classic Empire	Julien R. Leparoux	Mark E. Casse	8 3/4
5	Practical Joke	Joel Rosario	Chad C. Brown	9 1/2
6	Tapwrit	Jose L. Ortiz	Todd A. Pletcher	10 1/4
7	Gunnevera	Javier Castellano	Antonio Sano	13 1/4
8	McCraken	Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr.	Ian R. Wilkes	13 1/4
9	Gormley	Victor Espinoza	John A. Shirreffs	14 1/4
10	Irish War Cry	Rajiv Maragh	H. Graham Motion	16 1/2
11	Hence	Florent Geroux	Steven M. Asmussen	18 1/2
12	Untrapped	Ricardo Santana Jr.	Steven M. Asmussen	19 1/4
13	Girvin	Mike E. Smith	Joe Sharp	19 1/4
14	Patch	Tyler Gaffalione	Todd A. Pletcher	20 3/4
15	J Boys Echo	Robby Albarado	Dale L. Romans	22 3/4
16	Sonneteer	J. Keith Desormeaux	Kent J. Desormeaux	26
17	Fast And Accurate	Channing Hill	Michael J. Maker	28 1/2
18	Irap	Mario Gutierrez	Doug F. O'Neill	40 1/2
19	State of Honor	Jose Lezcano	Mark E. Casse	45 1/2
20	Thunder Snow	Christophe Soumillon	Saeed bin Suroor	DNF

Because horse racing is a sport that rarely allows for basking in the moment, attention is already beginning to shift to Pimlico in two weeks. Always Dreaming will once again walk in a favorite—likely a massive one given how impressive his victory was Saturday. We know next to nothing about the field he'll be going up against, nor the weather conditions, or anything predictive for that matter.

So what, exactly, can we expect for the Preakness?

A smaller field, for one. Trainers spend months getting these horses ready for the Kentucky Derby. Even the long-odds qualifiers are in this race to put that pedigree on the horse's resume—and to cash in on the off chance their horse pulls an Animal Kingdom.

The Preakness and Belmont matter, just not as much. Velazquez, trainer Todd Pletcher and the team around Always Dreaming care exponentially more about the Preakness than any other group. The two-week turnaround is grueling for any horse, and there will be a lot of trainers who will hold their horses out of the second Triple Crown leg so they're fresher for the lengthy Belmont.

In all likelihood, the Preakness will be the weakest field Always Dreaming faces as he tries to make a Triple Crown bid.

Not that it will actually be easy by any stretch of the imagination. Part of the reason the Derby was so hard for bettors throughout the weeks is that no horse really stood out above the rest. It was seen as a wide-open race, with eight horses having 16-1 odds or better. There were five horses with single-digit odds.

While some of those laid eggs Saturday, chances are at least a couple of them will be making the trip to Pimlico. If the conditions are even slightly more favorable, Always Dreaming will be dealing with a comfort level he wasn't at the Derby.

In all these cases, the safest bet is to pick the favorite to win at the Preakness and falter at the Belmont. It was horse racing's favorite pattern before American Pharoah broke the mold in 2015. So we'll go with that for now—even as we're totally unsure of what type of field he'll be facing.

Odds courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com.