Jacksonville Jaguars Are Taking an Unnecessary Risk with Faith in Blake Bortles

Risk management is critical in football and life in general. It’s a term that just made many of you nod off instantly while thinking about finances and the stock market. And it’s constantly hovering around NFL roster decisions, especially when it comes to the most important and expensive position on the field: quarterback.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have spent their entire offseason assessing, managing and fearing risk with quarterback Blake Bortles. A new management team led by vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin had to look at Bortles and decide how much risk it was willing to take on.

The correct answer was no risk. As in zero. None at all.

That was the only tolerable amount of danger from a quarterback who regressed swiftly in 2016. A third-year pivot should be far past the point where he’s battling wonky mechanics and a loopy, awkward motion that leads to inaccurate throws and interceptions too often.

Season	Comp %	Yards/game	Yards/attempt	TDs	INTs	Rating
2016	58.9	244.1	6.2	23	16	78.8
2015	58.6	276.8	7.3	35	18	88.2

A passer deemed worthy of the third-overall pick in 2014 shouldn’t still be dealing with rookie issues and needing the tutoring of a private throwing coach.

Yet even after Bortles’ flameout in 2016, the Jaguars still chose to set their risk level to “some.” Taking on some risk is much more than zero.

They had until May 3 to make a decision on Bortles' fifth-year contract option. Surprisingly, the Jaguars opted to grant Bortles that option. Here’s the statement from Coughlin, which was presumably written out by the shoulder shrug emoji on the Jaguars' public relations staff.

The wording there at first seems innocent enough, and then it’s quickly curious upon further review.

By picking up Bortles' fifth-year option, the Jaguars have now given themselves just that: an option. They have team control over a young quarterback for the 2018 season, if they choose to exercise it. Bortles will be paid just over $19 million for his fifth NFL season, according to Spotrac. His contract doesn’t become guaranteed until the first day of the new league year, which means that as of this moment, the Jaguars have concretely committed to nothing with Bortles for 2018.

But it’s not that simple. It’s never that simple with quarterbacks.

No, the Jaguars aren’t yet forking over an obscene amount of money to Bortles. But still risk involved, and as a league source told Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union, that puts a dent in Coughlin’s "business decision" comment.

This decision can’t just be pushed aside by shrugging and saying that if Bortles still struggles in 2017, the Jaguars have the ability to cut him at no extra cost. While that’s true, it’s also an oversimplification looking past a rather important detail: The 2018 option is guaranteed for injury.

Every fifth-year option for first-round picks is guaranteed for injury only. But that stipulation is more meaningful with quarterbacks who are questionable talents (who still play the mostexpensive position).

If Bortles is injured by the time the new league year begins in March 2018, the full cost of his fifth-year option is guaranteed. That’s where the “some” risk level kicks in, which is already beyond any acceptable gambling with Bortles.

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

We’re talking about a quarterback who doesn’t exactly have a pristine medical report after playing through a separated shoulder. Shortly after the Jaguars’ 2016 season ended, Bortles spoke with Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com, and said he suffered the injury back on Oct. 27 against the Tennessee Titans. He had to battle through a Grade 1 strain of the AC joint for half the year, and later also dealt with tendinitis in his right wrist.

Bortles' repeated blows are going to keep adding up. Even the largest football bodies can only be walloped so many times by opposing pass-rushers.

And Bortles’ 6’5” and 232-pound body has aged quite a bit over only three seasons, because defenses treat him like that punch test game at every awful dive bar and county fair. Bortles has been sacked 140 times in his 46 games, which is the highest total since he entered the league in 2014, according to Pro Football Reference.

Quarterback	Sacks taken
Blake Bortles	140
Russell Wilson	128
Matthew Stafford	126
Ryan Tannehill	120
Alex Smith	118

Bortles is well ahead of the other top-five quarterbacks on that list, and 12 sacks clear of the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson. Shaky offensive-line play in front of him bears much of the blame for the thumpings he’s had to endure. But Bortles’ own lack of field vision and poor pre-snap reads have played a part, too.

Regardless, he’s taken those hits, and there’s worrisome wear on his body. And now Bortles is one muscle tear away from potentially costing the Jaguars $19-plus million.

Feeling overwhelming injury anxiety and wanting to put your quarterback in bubble wrap is no way to go through a season. Washington didn’t want that life at all, which is why it benched Robert Griffin III for the entire season in 2015. That was the only way to ensure he stayed healthy. The San Francisco 49ers sat Colin Kaepernick to begin 2016 for many reasons, and his contract was one of them. He only played after agreeing to a restructured deal.

The Jaguars are now going forward without a plan or injury parachute with Bortles. They don’t have someone of Kirk Cousins’ caliber to bring off the bench as Washington did. And it’s highly unlikely Bortles would ever agree to a restructured deal, because in 2018, he either gets to see his fifth-year option salary become guaranteed, or he enters free agency and can move on.

So there will be some eggshell-walking for the Jaguars as they hope their quarterback stays in one piece all year. They’ll also be asking him to halt his spiraling regression after plummeting in 2016.

John Raoux/Associated Press

Bortles also has a lowly career per-attempt passing average of 6.6 yards, and over 45 starts, he’s completed only 58.8 percent of his throws. Worse, he’s ranked among the top five in interceptions during each of his three seasons, and led the league in 2015.

It’s difficult to say how much the injuries played a role in his 2016 decline, though Bortles did log half a season of awfulness before the shoulder issues came up. Maybe his production was hindered to some degree, and maybe there’s hope the 2015 Bortles can return.

The best-case scenario in 2017 for the Jaguars and Bortles is clear: A quarterback who’s now supported by Leonard Fournette, the draft’s top running back, rediscovers his booming arm and performs at a level that fuels even more hope going forward.

If that magically optimistic future arrived without the fifth-year option, the Jaguars still could have extended his contract. Now they’ve set themselves up for marginal savings in 2018 if Bortles bounces back, while having to stomach too much risk if he doesn't.