Dubs vs. Cavs, Pt. 3: A Way-Too-Early (But Not Really) NBA Finals Preview
The first round of the NBA playoffs hasn't even concluded in full, so it's way, way too early to be analyzing hypothetical matchups of who might face off in the Finals come June 1.
But is it?
The Golden State Warriors looked positively lethal in sweeping the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round. The Cavs made quick work of the Indiana Pacers, and formidable Eastern Conference opponents are lacking. It seems more likely than not we'll see the same two teams in the Finals for a third consecutive season, which would be the first time in NBA history.
Stephen Curry vs. LeBron James. Steve Kerr vs. Tyronn Lue. Draymond Green vs. the league office.
In that spirit, Bleacher Report spoke with a handful of veteran scouts from across the league to get their takes on some of the big storylines we can expect should this series come to fruition (h/t to B/R Cavs writer Greg Swartz for contributing reporting). Assuming each team is relatively healthy in five weeks' time, this Finals rubber match could go down as one of the all-time greats.
Point Gods: Curry vs. Kyrie
James remains the name everyone will obsess over, but the most intriguing one-on-one matchup is how Curry fares against Kyrie Irving. In 2015, Irving was felled in Cleveland's overtime Game 1 loss at Oracle Arena, giving rise to Matthew Dellavedova but also hindering the Cavs' offensive flow. Last year, it was Curry who was playing at far less than 100 percent, thanks to two lingering lower-leg injuries suffered in the first round.
So far, so good for both. Irving averaged more than 25 points per game against Indiana, while Curry was all-around sensational versus Portland, pumping in 29.8 points, 6.5 assists and 2.0 steals a night.
"I wouldn't necessarily give this point guard matchup to Curry. Kyrie's at that level," one Eastern Conference scout said. "He'll match up with Steph, and he'll have to make the effort defensively. We're at that point in the season where he's got no choice but to play defense."
Even with his defensive hiccups, the scout thinks Irving can play to the level the Cavs will need against the two-time MVP: "He has the skills to be a good defender; he's so gifted athletically. At times, he lapses, and he just doesn't have that motor on defense that drives him like other players do. It's more mental than it is physical with him."
X-Men: J.R. Smith vs. Andre Iguodala
Aside from the marquee names, there are always one or two players who end up making the kind of tangible impact you never saw coming. For one Western Conference scout, the second-string Warrior who could tip the scales this year is the same one who did two years ago.
"Andre Iguodala, If he can keep up his play, they're going to be really tough to beat," the scout said. "He can guard LeBron, and they can put him on Kyrie. The Warriors switch more than any team in the league, so if he gets switched onto anybody—except maybe Tristan Thompson—he can make a real impact."
For the Cavs, that player is J.R. Smith, who knocked down seven of 16 three-pointers against Indiana in the first round. "If he misses shots, they're really going to struggle," the Western Conference scout said. "It's a make-or-miss league, and it's going to be a make-or-miss Finals. If he's going to get open shots, he's got to make them."
On defense, an Eastern Conference scout thinks Smith can cause problems for Klay Thompson at the other end of the floor. "Clearly Thompson is a better player and a better scorer, and he'll find ways to score, but the key for J.R. is not to lose him," the scout said. "He's kind of similar to Kyrie with the mental lapses. He's got to get to Thompson and cut down on his three-point shooting. I think J.R.'s got all the tools to defend him."
What We Talk About When We Talk About JaVale McGee
Somehow, the Warriors' backup big always finds a way. He wasn't supposed to make the team out of training camp...but then Elliot Williams got injured. He wasn't supposed to be a regular rotation player...but then he stopped fouling on every defensive possession and started raining down thunderous slams off lobs.
With the playoffs upon us, you'd suspect head coach Steve Kerr and assistant coach Mike Brown might tighten up the rotations, shrink that margin for error and give McGee's minutes a nosedive...but they have not. McGee was nothing short of a revelation against Portland, committing only two turnovers in 49 minutes and converting on 18 of his 23 shot attempts. He had a higher usage rate than Draymond Green, according to NBA.com, over the four games, and he was a much-needed catalyst at several different moments.
JaVale McGee, secret Finals weapon? It could happen.
"They keep it really simple with him," the Western Conference scout said. "He's benefitting from playing with high-IQ players. He would not be as effective if he was playing with a bunch of knuckleheads who didn't know what they were doing."
What Kerr has done, in the scout's mind, is stick to the basics that McGee thrives on: "Screen, roll hard to the rim, protect the rim defensively, get vertical and give help defending on blocked shots. They don't run a lot of tricky plays, and he's been terrific."
Take, for example, this sequence in the first quarter of Game 1 against the Blazers, where McGee and Curry run high pick-and-roll but integrate Green's lob into the play as an intermediary action.
As soon as McGee makes the initial pass to Curry up high, he knows how the play will unfold. This kind of confidence was nowhere to be found back in October.
Then, as part of a pivotal late third-quarter sequence that put the Warriors ahead, McGee ran out on the fast break and slipped in behind the defense for a transition slam off a lob from Iguodala.
The awareness and energy exhibited here is how he's able to get the most out of the 12.2 minutes a game he's averaging in the playoffs.
Even positive things that don't show up in the box score—like hitting the deck to slap the ball toward a teammate and keep the possession alive for another scoring chance—are becoming commonplace for McGee.
As long as he's playing in four- or five-minute bursts, he can give all he has before the defense forces him into some kind of viral blooper.
Flip or Flop
For all the talk about the Cavs needing to flip some kind of switch on defense, a second Eastern Conference scout thinks it can still happen.
"To me, they like to play to the level of their opponent quite often," the scout said, and he also thinks the Warriors match up well to neutralize that play. "It's a skill set rarely discussed, but Draymond and Klay have two of the better motors in the game; on offense and defense, they just don't take plays off. I have a hard time finding one guy like that on the Cavs ... other than maybe Thompson.
"They have guys that can defend, and they can put a game plan together to make the Warriors work for everything, but Warriors offense vs. Cavs defense is a clear win for the Warriors."
Which is why, according to our Western Conference scout, the Cavs should concentrate more on trying to outscore the Warriors rather than stop them scoring.
"Everybody talks about how defense wins championships? That's not true," the scout said. "Defense gives you a chance to get there, but offense wins it for you at the end. You've got to be able to score. Golden State is going to score 110, 115, maybe 120 points a night, so the defense is going to be irrelevant.
"What's going to be relevant is can Cleveland score with them? Because nobody can stop Golden State. All that 'flip the switch' stuff? That goes out the window. You can flip it or not flip it. Cleveland has to be able to score with them, which is why the shooting of J.R. Smith will be so important."
Who Ya Got?
All three of the scouts we talked with give a definite edge to the Warriors, assuming everyone is relatively healthy heading into the Finals. What may be somewhat surprising is that all three still expect the series would be close, with the Warriors winning in six or even seven games.
"I'm going to lean Golden State, provided that [Kevin] Durant is healthier," the first Eastern Conference scout said. "I think Cleveland has dropped off defensively from their championship, and LeBron has to do way too much. ... I don't think the other guys have pulled their weight as well as they did last year.
"Kevin Love, to me, sometimes disappears. I think it's a confidence thing. It seems like if he misses a few shots, he loses confidence, and I don't see that in Golden State. Those guys play through slumps and just keep playing and playing. Doubt never creeps into their heads. With Cleveland, I never saw that last year, but I see it a little bit this year."
"I envision it over in six in Cleveland with a Warriors win," the second Eastern Conference scout said. "This Warriors team knows how good it is, which I think is very rare in the history of the NBA. Even in the championship year and last year, they weren't quite sure if they were the world-beaters they've become, but with the addition of Durant, things have changed. You can see it when they get down in games; there is no worry or fear or long faces because they know they are the best team in the NBA."
"I definitely think the Warriors are the favorite, but I don't think they're going to roll over them because Cleveland has too much pride for that," the Western Conference scout said, "but I do think the Warriors would win it in six or seven games. That's assuming there are no major injuries between now and then, but having the Game 7 at home will be huge."
Of course, that's what many assumed last June as well, and we all remember how that scenario played out. That is why you play the games, because you can never predict how events will shake out.
But from what we've seen thus far, perhaps we've got a good idea.
Cavs-Warriors in a third Finals clash? You've got time to prepare.
Additional reporting from Cleveland by Greg Swartz.
