10 College Basketball Teams Doomed for a Rebuilding Year in 2017-18
The struggle is real, or at least it will be for a handful of notable college basketball teams who are line for a lean 2017-18 season.
Graduation, transfers and the NBA draft have a way of quickly turning formidable lineups into ones riddled with holes, making it so an influx of talent is necessary to avoid falling backward the following season. But even with the arrival of some promising newcomers, some teams are just destined for a rebuild.
Take 2016 Final Four participant Oklahoma, for instance. The Sooners won 29 games behind national player of the year Buddy Hield and a senior-laden lineup, but after those stars moved on, they dipped to 11 wins, their fewest since 1980-81. And after sharing the SEC regular-season title in 2015-16 en route to a Sweet 16 appearance, Texas A&M fell to 16-15 and was under .500 in conference play.
Not every rebuilding year is as pronounced as those, sometimes it just goes from being pretty good to not so great (but with no shot at making the postseason). And several teams who had solid 2016-17 seasons could be in for significant slippage this coming season.
For the purposes of this piece, we've only considered teams that won at least 59 percent of their games last year. That criteria was met by 119 of the 351 Division I programs, of which we've selected 10 that are in most danger of dealing with a rebuild in 2017-18.
Akron Zips
1 of 10
2016-17 record: 27-9, 14-4 Mid-American
Graduated: Isaiah Johnson (598 points), Kwan Cheatham (397 points)
Transferred: Antino Jackson (309 points), Noah Robotham (291 points), Josh Williams (263 points), Tavian Dunn-Martin (145 points), Michael Hughes (35 points)
Turned pro: None
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Jimond Ivey (367 points), Daniel Utomi (143 points), Aaron Jackson (134 points)
Notable additions: Eric Parrish (freshman), Jaden Sayles (freshman)
John Groce is getting a fresh start after Illinois fired him in March, and not just in terms of changing jobs and locales. The Akron team that he is taking over won't look much like the one that won consecutive MAC regular-season titles, with six of the top seven scorers either graduating or opting to transfer.
That includes the reigning conference Player of the Year in Isaiah Johnson, a 6'10”, 290-pound block of granite who averaged 16.6 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists last season. His departure was known for a while, but most of the transfers didn't happen until after previous coach Keith Dambrot left to take the Duquesne job.
Jimond Ivey, a 6'4” guard, will be Akron's top returning scorer at 10.4 points per game. Groce will likely try to add some transfers, either via the junior college or graduate route, to help beef up a roster that has only three upperclassmen on tap for 2017-18.
California Golden Bears
2 of 10
2016-17 record: 21-13, 10-8 Pac-12
Graduated: Jabari Bird (387 points), Grant Mullins (328 points), Sam Singer (152 points)
Transferred: Charlie Moore (416 points), Kameron Rooks (118 points)
Turned pro: Ivan Rabb (434 points)
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Kingsley Okoroh (158 points)
Notable additions: Marcus Lee (Kentucky)
When a player who started 16 games (but only one of the last nine) is your top returning scorer, rebuilding only begins to describe what is set to occur in the near future. Maybe that's why California ended up elevating assistant Wyking Jones to the head job after Cuonzo Martin bolted for Missouri since it was unlikely any established coach would want to take on such a bare cupboard.
Ivan Rabb entered the NBA draft after a sophomore season in which he averaged 14 points and 10.5 rebounds but quite often failed to show much aggressiveness, while guard Jabari Bird saved his best for last by averaging a team-best 14.3 points as a senior.
The final domino was the decision by Charlie Moore to transfer from Cal after one season. As a freshman, he impressed with 12.2 points and 3.5 assists per game, but he chose to sit out a year rather than be part of the Golden Bears' do-over.
That basically leaves former Kentucky center Marcus Lee as the only player of significance on the roster, and he hasn't played since March 2016 after sitting out per NCAA transfer rules.
Dayton Flyers
3 of 10
2016-17 record: 24-8, 15-3 Atlantic 10
Graduated: Charles Cooke (457 points), Scoochie Smith (442 points), Kendall Pollard (362 points), Kyle Davis (242 points)
Transferred: None
Turned pro: None
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Xeryius Williams (262 points), Ryan Mikesell (183 points), Darrell Davis (172 points), Sam Miller (118 points)
Notable additions: Kostas Antetokounmpo (redshirt)
Coach Archie Miller followed his top three scorers out the door at Dayton, taking on the Indiana job and leaving new coach Anthony Grant with a roster that's got plenty of potential but no guarantees of the kind of success the Flyers had in winning 102 games with four consecutive NCAA tournament appearances.
Guards Charles Cooke, Kyle Davis and Scoochie Smith and forward Kendall Pollard combined to average more than 47 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists per game and they made more than half of Dayton's three-pointers. The Flyers averaged 75.9 points per game, so they'll have to replace more than 60 percent of their scoring.
A big boost should come from a fully healthy Josh Cunningham, who only played 11 games last season because of injury. The 6'7” forward averaged 6.3 points per game but only reached double figures twice after returning in mid-February.
Dayton also will have Kostas Antetokounmpo, younger brother of NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo, available after sitting out last season. The 6'10” forward could provide some much-needed athleticism on the interior, but his offensive game may still be raw as he works to add size and strength.
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Florida State Seminoles
4 of 10
2016-17 record: 26-9, 12-6 ACC
Graduated: Michael Ojo (172 points), Jarquez Smith (153 points)
Transferred: None
Turned pro: Dwayne Bacon (603 points), Jonathan Isaac (383 points), Xavier Rathan-Mayes (370 points)
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Terance Mann (294 points), Trent Forrest (171 points), CJ Walker (161 points), Braian Angola-Rhodes (157 points), PJ Savoy (155 points), Chris Koumadje (118 points)
Notable additions: RaiQuan Gray (freshman), Ike Obiagu (freshman), Anthony Polite (freshman), Wyatt Wilkes (freshman)
A second-place finish in the ACC is worth praising, though when it was followed up by a second-round loss to Xavier as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament then maybe Florida State's big 2016-17 season wasn't so successful. A year from now, Seminoles fans might be begging for the shot to be in the same position since the upcoming campaign figures to be a struggle.
FSU's top three scorers all turned pro, with forward Jonathan Isaac leaving as a freshman and guards Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes departing after their sophomore and junior campaigns, respectively. Throw in starting center Michael Ojo and solid frontcourt backup Jarquez Smith and the 'Noles are tasked with replacing more than 55 percent of their scoring.
FSU coach Leonard Hamilton regularly played 10 or 11 guys so there's not a lack of experience coming back, just a dearth of playmakers. Guards Terance Mann and PJ Savoy each had one 20-point scoring effort last season while the trio of Bacon/Isaac/Rathan-Mayes did so a combined 15 times.
The 'Noles' 2017 recruiting class currently ranks 18th nationally and features a pair of 4-star prospects in center Ike Obiagu and wing Anthony Polite, but there may not be anyone as impactful in their first season as Isaac or Bacon were the past two years.
Iowa State Cyclones
5 of 10
2016-17 record: 24-11, 12-6 Big 12
Graduated: Monte Morris (575 points), Nazareth Mitrou-Long (530 points), Deonte Burton (527 points), Matt Thomas (430 points), Darrell Bowie (190 points)
Transferred: Simeon Carter (six points)
Turned pro: None
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Donovan Jackson (223 points), Nick Weiler-Babb (139 points), Solomon Young (133 points)
Notable additions: Ray Kasongo (Tennessee), Terrence Lewis (freshman), Lindell Wigginton (freshman)
Steve Prohm didn't inherit a bare cupboard when he took over Iowa State two years ago, getting to work with a veteran roster that won its third Big 12 tournament title in the past four seasons in 2016-17. Now comes the hard part, being able to keep that success going with players he's added to the program instead of leaning on leftovers from the Fred Hoiberg regime.
That means saying goodbye to a quintet of seniors that played in 10 NCAA tournament games over the previous five years. Oh, and they also scored more than 76 percent of the points in 2016-17 while contributing 288 of Iowa State' 344 three-pointers.
Success in the immediate future depends on how forward Solomon Young and guard Donovan Jackson develop. Young averaged 4.4 points and 3.3 rebounds as a freshman, numbers that rose to 6.3 and 4.7 after he moved into the starting lineup in mid-February, while Jackson shot 45.4 percent from three as a junior while playing less than 17 minutes per game.
Iowa State adds an intriguing transfer in Ray Kasongo, a 6'9” forward who has bounced around at the junior college and Division I level and played 22 games for Tennessee in 2015-16, while 4-star point guard prospect Lindell Wigginton could be the next Monte Morris but the learning curve early on could be steep.
Memphis Tigers
6 of 10
2016-17 record: 19-13, 9-9 American
Graduated: None
Transferred: Dedric Lawson (614 points), Markel Crawford (409 points), K.J. Lawson (394 points), Craig Randall II (167 points), Keon Clergeot (98 points)
Turned pro: None
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Jeremiah Martin (328 points), Jimario Rivers (198 points)
Notable additions: Kyvon Davenport (freshman), Jamal Johnson (freshman), David Nickelberry (freshman)
Tubby Smith has taken five different schools to the NCAA tournament, tied with Oklahoma's Lon Kruger for most in college basketball history. Making Memphis his sixth isn't going to happen next season, not with the mass exodus he's experienced since his first year on the job ended in March.
Since the Tigers lost to UCF in the American Athletic Conference quarterfinals on March 10—their seventh loss in nine games after a 17-6 start—they've said goodbye to their top three scorers including talented brothers Dedric and K.J. Lawson. Those wings have committed to Kansas (with K.J. Lawson cussing out Smith in a Snapchat video on his way out) while shooting guard Craig Randall II is headed to Duquense.
Guard Jimario Rivers, who averaged 6.4 points and 3.5 rebounds as a junior, will be Memphis' top returning scorer while guard Jeremiah Martin is the only player who made more than 10 three-pointers last season.
Unless the incoming recruiting class is much better than expected, Smith could be facing just his third losing season. The others were in 2013-14 and 2014-15 at Texas Tech, his first two at that school, before getting the Red Raiders into the NCAA tourney in 2015-16.
New Orleans Privateers
7 of 10
2016-17 record: 20-12, 13-5 Southland
Graduated: Erik Thomas (616 points), Christavious Gill (369 points), Nate Frye (254 points), Tevin Broyles (251 points)
Transferred: None
Turned pro: None
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Travin Thibodeaux (277 points), Makur Puou (185 points), Michael Zeno (149 points), Jorge Rosa (146 points)
Notable additions: None
There weren't many stories better this past season than that of New Orleans, a program that made the NCAA tournament only a few years removed from dropping down to Division III briefly in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. If the Privateers manage to get back to the tourney in 2017-18, it might be even more amazing.
Four of its top five scorers and three starters were seniors, including leading scorer and rebounder Erik Thomas. He had 12 points and eight rebounds in New Orleans' one-point loss to Mount St. Mary's in the First Four, combining with fellow seniors Christavious Gill, Nate Frye and Tevin Broyles for 42 of its 66 points.
The Privateers bring back Travin Thibodeaux, whose junior campaign ended in a bad way when coach Mark Slessinger had to bench him late in the NCAA tourney loss after he got in a scuffle with Gill during a timeout. The 6'8” forward will be their leader entering his senior season.
Rice Owls
8 of 10
2016-17 record: 23-12, 11-7 Conference USA
Graduated: None
Transferred: Marcus Evans (667 points), Egor Koulechov (635 points), Marcus Jackson (426 points), Marquez Letcher-Ellis (271 points)
Turned pro: None
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Connor Cashaw (279 points), Chad Lott (186 points), Ako Adams (106 points)
Notable additions: None
Scott Pera put in his time as an assistant coach, spending the previous 11 seasons on staffs at Arizona State, Penn and Rice before getting his first head-coaching gig. The job opened up after the Owls won the second-most games in school history, leading to Mike Rhoades getting hired away by VCU.
Rice's best players apparently didn't want to stick around to see if Pera could replicate what Rhoades accomplished, with four of five starters opting to transfer. That includes one of the highest-scoring duos in the country in guards Marcus Evans and Egor Koulechov.
Koulechov and Marcus Jackson are eligible immediately, with Jackson already committing to UC-Santa Barbara, according to ESPN's Jeff Goodman.
Connor Cashaw is the Owls' top returning scorer at eight points per game as a sophomore. After that, it's all freshmen, meaning the 49-year-old Pera will essentially be starting from scratch.
SMU Mustangs
9 of 10
2016-17 record: 30-5, 17-1 American
Graduated: Sterling Brown (470 points), Ben Moore (401 points)
Transferred: Harry Froling (43 points), Dashawn McDowell (42 points), Tom Wilson (16 points)
Turned pro: *-Semi Ojeleye (663 points)
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Shake Milton (455 points), Jarrey Foster (336 points), Ben Emelogu (150 points)
Notable additions: William Douglas (freshman), Jahmal McMurray (South Florida), Jimmy Whitt (Arkansas)
*-has not hired an agent, can return to school
The prospects are much better now that guard Shake Milton has decided to come back for his junior year, and if leading scorer Semi Ojeleye doesn't like where he sits in the draft his return would eliminate SMU from this list. The latter isn't likely, though, not with the 6'8” forward projected as a late first-round pick by Draft Express and other outlets.
So we're assuming Ojeleye's monster numbers after coming over from Duke (and sitting out three semesters) won't be at coach Tim Jankovich's disposal again. That means others will need to step up to replace his 18.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game and 42.4 percent three-point shooting.
The combined departure of Ojeleye, forward Ben Moore (11.5 points, 7.8 rebounds) and wing Nic Moore (13.4 points, 6.5 rebounds) means SMU won't have a returning player who averaged better than 5.2 rebounds per game. That's guard Jarrey Foster, who at 6'5” isn't going to be working the paint much.
The Mustangs will be guard-oriented in 2017-18, with Arkansas transfer Jimmy Whitt (6.1 points per game in 2015-16) in line to get a starting spot. It will depend on what kind of contributions they get on the interior that determines how much of a backslide they have.
South Carolina Gamecocks
10 of 10
2016-17 record: 26-11, 12-6 SEC
Graduated: Sindarius Thornwell (663 points), Duane Notice (377 points), Justin McKie (156 points)
Transferred: None
Turned pro: PJ Dozier (501 points)
Returning players who scored 100-plus points: Chris Silva (380 points), Maik Kotsar (215 points), Rakym Felder (200 points), Hassani Gravett (115 points)
Notable additions: Kory Holden (Delaware)
Earlier this month, we included South Carolina on a list of highly seeded teams that might not make it back to the NCAA tournament. And that was before PJ Dozier decided to sign with an agent instead of leaving open the chance to return for his junior year, further lessening the likelihood of the Gamecocks coming close to matching their magical 2016-17 run to the Final Four.
A sub-.500 season is looking possible with the departure of top two scorers Dozier and Sindarius Thornwell, who combined to score 43 percent of the points. Throw in guard Duane Notice's 10.2 points per game and South Carolina returns only one player (Chris Silva) who averaged double figures.
Silva averaged 10.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in just 20.9 minutes per game as a sophomore, meaning there's room for a big jump in production with added minutes. But that will require the 6'9” Silva to find a way to stop fouling, as he committed 7.3 fouls per 40 minutes and fouled out 10 times, tied for third-most in Division I.
Frank Martin's already high blood pressure could go through the roof next year with what figures to be an incredibly young team. His most experienced players will be Silva and point guard Kory Holden, a junior who averaged 15.1 points and 4.6 assists in two seasons at Delaware before sitting out 2016-17.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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