
March Madness 2017: Final Bracket, NCAA Title Game Odds and Predictions
Cinderellas and upset-minded hopefuls have left the floor, thanks to a pair of dominant top seeds in the Big Dance.
Like many expected, North Carolina has arrived in the NCAA men's basketball tournament title game on a wave of momentum even spotty injury issues to a key player can't slow. Gonzaga's suffocating defense has the program where it wants to be: with a chance to prove it has serious staying power among the big boys.
The presence of an underdog in the title game might have made the final dance more exciting in regards to buildup, but the Tar Heels and Bulldogs getting together guarantees a close game—if not a classic.
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Here's a look at the schedule and finalized bracket:
| No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 North Carolina | Monday, April 3 | 9:20 p.m. | CBS | North Carolina (-2) |
It shouldn't come as much of a shock to see oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren't comfortable swinging far one way or the other.
The Tar Heels (fifth in ESPN's RPI rankings) are borderline impossible to pick against even if a few of the games have been of the too-close-for-comfort variety. Slipping past eighth-seeded Arkansas 72-65 in the second game was more of a product of ankle issues suffered by Joel Berry II, as was a 75-73 escape of second-seeded Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Same story in the Final Four against third-seeded Oregon in what was a bit of a track meet. For the third time in five tournament games, Berry couldn't surpass the 11-point mark. Kennedy Meeks (25 points) and Justin Jackson (22) picked up the slack, but a deficiency from one of the team's top players won't work against Gonzaga.
Las Vegas might lean toward the Tar Heels, but ESPN Stats & Info used advanced metrics to come to a different conclusion:
Indeed, Gonzaga (eighth RPI) has looked almost as dominant as advertised, a 61-58 escape of fourth-seeded West Virginia in the Sweet 16 the only major blemish on the tournament resume thus far—and the Bulldogs' elite defense held the Mountaineers to 26.7 percent shooting (16 of 60) from the floor even there.
Same story in the Final Four against the seventh-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks, the bracket's big Cinderella. Billed as a defensive battle, the Bulldogs won 77-73 while holding the title hopeful to 37.9 shooting (25 of 66) and holding SEC Player of the Year Sindarius Thornwell to 15 points—after he'd scored a minimum of 24 points in every bracket game.
Going into Monday's title game, it is the defensive end of the court where Gonzaga will look to press its advantage.
The two sides seem evenly matched on the offensive end, with the Tar Heels ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com and Gonzaga 12th. The great divider here is the Bulldogs sitting tops in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Not to suggest North Carolina (16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom) is intimidated by the task ahead.
"I think our main objective every game is to hit teams early in the mouth, whether that's attacking them on the offensive end or playing great defense," Meeks said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com).
In a game likely decided by physicality, it's hard to roll with the team sporting a point guard with a pair of shaky ankles. Berry is one of the best players in the nation, but when he isn't penetrating and creating for others, defenses don't feel as much pressure to collapse and can stick closer to other shooters. There's a big difference between escaping an Oregon team ranked 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom and the top team in that area.
Rebounds on both ends of the court won't come as easy either, not against the 7'1", 300-pound Przemek Karnowski and others down low. More chances thanks to work on the glass means keeping North Carolina's scorers out of rhythm and gassed.
A tournament of close calls with one key player hobbled doesn't figure to end well for the Tar Heels, not against a defensive powerhouse capable of leaning on one of four or five reliable scorers on any given night.
In a slow-paced affair, look for Gonzaga to fluster the North Carolina offense and hold off a late rally to secure a title, grabbing the program prestige and assured staying power in the process.
Prediction: Gonzaga 76, North Carolina 74
Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.com. Odds via OddsShark.com.



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