2017 NFL Draft: Which Franchises Need to Chase Successors at Quarterback?

There are two types of teams in the National Football League: those who have "franchise" quarterbacks and those who desperately want one.

In that fortunate first bunch there are a couple of sub-groups. Teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts are riding high. Their young signal-callers are only now entering their primes. Replacing those quarterbacks isn't a bridge they will have to cross for a good long while.

However, in places like Pittsburgh, New York and New Orleans, the future is filled with uncertainty. The Steelers, Giants and Saints all have starting quarterbacks with Super Bowl wins under the belts—and a lot of candles on their birthday cakes.

That leaves these teams (and others) with a dilemma as the 2017 NFL draft approaches. Do they spend early picks on pieces to place around their star passers or look to draft a successor relatively early?

Player	Team	Age	NFL Seasons	Playoff Wins	SB Rings
Alex Smith	KC	32	11	2	0
Aaron Rodgers	GBP	33	12	9	1
Philip Rivers	LAC	35	13	4	0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	35	13	13	2
Eli Manning	NYG	36	13	8	2
Carson Palmer	AZ	37	13	2	0
Drew Brees	NO	38	16	6	1
Tom Brady	NE	39	17	25*	5*

As mentioned earlier, there are quite a few teams in this particular boat. No fewer than eight NFL teams presently sport starting quarterbacks who both have playoff wins on their NFL resume and are well past the age of 30.

The oldest of the bunch just so happens to have just won his fifth Super Bowl. Tom Brady will turn the big 4-0 before the 2017 season begins, but the New England Patriots already appear to have a successor in place in Jimmy Garoppolo—provided they don't trade him, of course.

Besides, as Patriots owner Robert Kraft said at the NFL's owners meetings this week (per Conor Orr of NFL.com), the Golden Boy doesn't have any intention of riding off into the sunset just yet.

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As recently as two, three days ago, he assured me he's willing to play six, seven more years. At the level he performed, there is no one who would be happier than I am and our fan base. When you think about it, there's one player at the age of 40 who had one good year: Favre (when he was with) the Vikings. I think Tommy's sustained excellence is just unbelievable.

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It's probably wishful thinking for Kraft to think that Brady will play past his 45th birthday. But he's right—in some respects it's unbelievable that Brady's still playing at the level he is at this age.

Because he's very much the exception and not the rule.

Back in the halcyon days of 2014 (it was a simpler time), Evan Horowitz of the Boston Globe did a study on aging quarterbacks and at what point their level of play begins to decline. Working with an admittedly small sample size (not many NFL passers are still chucking the ball around in their late 30s), Horowitz concluded that the magic number where quarterbacks begin to fall off is 37:

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At 33, they were twice as good as they had been at 22. And they continued to play at that high level roughly until they turned 37. What happens to them in their late 30s? Well, it’s not that they stop completing passes. There is basically no falloff in their completion percentage. However, their passes don’t go quite as far. And they start to throw more interceptions. 

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Outside of Brady, two of the quarterbacks on our list (Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints and Carson Palmer of the Arizona Cardinals) are either at or past that age of decline. Eli Manning will turn 37 before the 2017-18 season ends.

Brees, for his part, showed few signs of slippage in passing for over 5,000 yards for the fifth time in his career in 2016.

It's entirely possible he's a robot. Just saying.

For Palmer, however, it was another story altogether.

Year	C%	YPA	PYPG	TD	INT	Rate	QBR	Rec.
'15	63.7	8.7	291.9	35	11	104.6	78.6	13-3
'16	61.0	7.1	282.2	26	14	87.2	58.9	6-8-1

Since hurting his hand late in the 2015 season, Palmer just hasn't looked like the player who was tearing up defenses prior to that injury. He was the living incarnation of Horowitz's hypothesis in 2016. His yards per attempt were down over a yard and a half relative to the year before, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio was slashed in half.

Palmer himself admitted to Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports that it may be time for the Redbirds to draft his heir apparent—in fact, he's on board with the idea.

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I’ve been in that mentor role for a decade now, really. Not to float my own boat, but I think I’m pretty good at it. I know I’ve had many great mentors and role models and guys to look up to; guys I’ve learned a lot from so I know how to approach being that guy and I’ve been doing it for a long time.

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Two years ago, the Denver Broncos won Super Bowl 50 not because of Peyton Manning, but in spite of him. The most prolific quarterback in NFL history had the worst season of his career in his last. Two years after breaking the single-season yardage record, Manning couldn't complete 60 percent of his passes and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of minus-8.

There was no gradual decline. The bottom just fell out.

A fall-off in play isn't the only worry for these teams. Ben Roethlisberger nearly gave an entire Midwestern city a heart attack earlier this year when he announced he was considering retirement on his radio show. As Dale Lolley of the Observer-Reporter wrote, Big Ben is leaning toward playing in 2017 (stunner), but Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin told the NFL Network (via Cindy Boren of the Washington Post), the drama only reinforces that the Steelers need to look to the future under center:

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I think we’ve been in that mind-set for the last several years, that’s what this business tells us to be in. We better start sharpening our sword in terms of evaluation of quarterbacks and what’s available to us or potentially available to us. That’s just due diligence. So, yes, we have.

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As Ralph Vacchiano wrote for SNY, those comments were echoed by Giants co-owner Steve Tisch in Phoenix:

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No, you can't beat age. I think it's certainly at the back of everybody's mind -- including Eli's. There's no urgency. There's no panic. But I think if you're a responsible owner, responsible GM, you've got to start thinking about it.

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Even if you think you have a few years left from your Manning or Roethlisberger, it's best not to wait too long. Delaying the acquisition of your future starter until the present one falls apart or hangs them up is a great way to set your franchise back years.

Yes, Dak Prescott just led the Dallas Cowboys to the playoffs as a rookie. Both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin did the same for the Seahawks and Washington Redskins, respectively, back in 2012. And Roethlisberger and Mark Sanchez came within a game of the Super Bowl in their inaugural seasons.

But these are, once again, exceptions to the rule. Even in an age where more and more young passers are having early success, the growing pains at football's most important position are still very real.

The Green Bay Packers didn't miss a beat transitioning from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, partly because Rodgers wasn't rushed into action too early. Even with Rodgers still playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL, is it that crazy to imagine the Packers walking a similar path with Rodgers' successor (I know, Cheesehead blasphemy) given how well it worked the last time?

It isn't a dilemma unique to contenders either. No one expects the Los Angeles Chargers to make a push for the postseason in 2017, but with Philip Rivers nearing that magic age of decline, he told KSLD-AM (via ESPN) that he's a realist about the possibility of an understudy arriving...

So long as that understudy knows his place.

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I think it’s to be expected they’re going to get a young guy in the room to try and develop him and groom him. It doesn’t by any means really affect me. I think it’s healthy for me. This thing doesn’t last forever. I have to get to playing better and keep this thing going as long as you can. As long as I do that, then whoever it is they bring in here, they’re going to sit for a while.

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Realism might be the key concept for all these players and teams. It would be nice to just stick your head in the sand, pretend your longtime starter was going to be in town forever and add a new receiver to catch passes from him or a new tackle to help protect him.

In the long run, though, it isn't going to get you anywhere.

This year's draft presents what could be a unique possibility. In a class without any slam-dunk stars at the position, more and more draftniks like NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah and Walter Football's Walter Cherepinsky are predicting that top prospects like Mitchell Trubisky of North Carolina and Deshaun Watson of Clemson could fall to teams like the Giants and Steelers.

Those picks might rankle some fans who are more concerned with living in the now as opposed to planning for the future. Why be the ant when it's more fun to be the grasshopper?

But as the Patriots have shown with investing an early pick in Garoppolo and grooming him to take the reins down the road, looking at the big picture can pay equally big dividends.

And that future is coming whether you want it to or not.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter: @IDPSharks.