NCAA Bracket 2017: Updated Odds and Picks Against the Spread for Sweet 16

When is an upset not an upset?

When it involves seventh-seeded Michigan beating third-seeded Oregon in the Midwest Region of the NCAA tournament.

A few weeks ago, Michigan was a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team hoping to get an invitation to the NCAA tournament. Then head coach John Beilein's team found its game and won the Big Ten tournament and followed up with victories over Oklahoma State and Louisville in their first two NCAA games.

Now the Wolverines face Oregon, a powerhouse from the Pac-12, and while the seeds say the Wolverines should lose this encounter, the oddsmakers think that Michigan has the edge in what should be a close game.

The Wolverines are one-point favorites over the Wildcats, according to OddsShark. Michigan is led by Derrick Walton Jr., who is averaging 15.4 points per game and has picked up his level of play considerably over the past month. He is joined by Zak Irvin, who scores 12.9 points per night, and Moritz Wagner, who is coming off a career-best 26-point effort against Louisville and averages 12.2 points per game.

Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV	Point Spread	Prediction
Thursday	Michigan (7) vs. Oregon (3)	7:09 p.m.	CBS	Michigan (-1)	Michigan
Thursday	West Virginia (4) vs. Gonzaga (1)	7:39 p.m.	TBS	Gonzaga (-3)	Gonzaga
Thursday	Purdue (4) vs. Kansas (1)	9:39 p.m.	CBS	Kansas (-5)	Kansas
Thursday	Xavier (11) vs. Arizona (2)	10:09 p.m.	TBS	Arizona (-7.5)	Xavier
Friday	Butler (4) vs. North Carolina (1)	7:09 p.m.	CBS	North Carolina (-7)	North Carolina*
Friday	South Carolina (7) vs. Baylor (3)	7:29 p.m.	TBS	Baylor (-3.5)	Baylor
Friday	UCLA (3) vs. Kentucky (2)	9:39 p.m.	CBS	Even	UCLA
Friday	Wisconsin (8) vs. Florida (4)	9:59 p.m.	TBS	Florida (-2)	Wisconsin
	*-Will win game but fail to cover.

Head coach John Beilein used an example from the Super Bowl to help his team focus its efforts and get the Wolverines to raise their level of play. 

The comeback victory by the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI over the Atlanta Falcons featured a remarkable catch by Julian Edelman in the fourth quarter, one in which the New England receiver refused to let the ball hit the ground.

"And I said, 'that's what we're talking about. There are outliers, and outlaying plays that can make a difference in a season,'" he told them (h/t Shawn Windsor of the Detroit Free Press). "You've got to reach for this thing (you) don't think you can do…and do it."

Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press

The Ducks have reeled off tournament victories over Iona and Rhode Island, but they should get a much bigger test from the Wolverines. Dillon Brooks leads the Ducks in scoring with an average of 16.4 points per game and is connecting on 50.5 percent from the floor.

He gets plenty of support from Tyler Dorsey, who is second on the team in scoring with a mark of 14.0 points per night. 

Second-seeded Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite over 11th-seeded Xavier, but if the Wildcats think they are in for an easy game as they move on to the Elite Eight, they would be making a big mistake.

The Musketeers have plenty of grit, and they rolled to two significant wins in their first two games of the tournament. They pounded Maryland by 11 points and followed that up with a blowout 91-66 victory over Florida State in the round of 32.

Xavier coach Chris Mack was a former assistant coach to Sean Miller when the Arizona head coach led the Musketeers. Mack is clearly a disciple of the Wildcats' head coach.

"The list would go on and on—the stuff that I took from Sean," Mack said (h/t Patrick Brennan of Cincinnati.com). "How we organize our program to how we run our recruiting to practice habits, practice plans."

Junior guard Trevon Bluiett has taken offensive responsibility for the Musketeers' attack, and he leads the team with an average of 18.5 points per game. J.P. Macura adds support from the outside, and he can help his team get separation on the scoreboard when he gets hot. He averaged 14.3 points per night heading into the tournament.

The Wildcats rolled over North Dakota by a 100-82 score and then outlasted a tough Saint Mary's team by a 69-60 margin in the round of 32.

They will have to overcome Xavier's tough defense to survive and advance here, but Miller has a slew of weapons. They include 7'0" Lauri Markkanen, superstar Allonzo Trier, Rawle Alkins and Dusan Ristic. As a result, the Wildcats will be tough to slow down.

Predictions

Michigan is on a roll, and while the Wolverines will get pushed hard by Oregon, expect the Wolverines to play their best basketball when the game is on the line in the final 10 minutes. 

The Wolverines have been executing well when the game is on the line, and that is not going to change against Oregon. They will find a way to outlast the Ducks and get to the Elite Eight.

Xavier has one of the smartest and toughest teams in the tournament, and it will fight hard on every possession to keep the Wildcats from getting easy baskets. That defensive presence has been the key to their first two tournament victories, and it will determine the outcome here.

Arizona will probably control the game for most of the first half, but Xavier will slowly take control, and the Musketeers will earn their third tournament victory.