NFL Free Agency: Predicting the Biggest Busts of 2017 Signings

Every year in March, big-time players sign big-time contracts with teams hoping that said players will become even bigger-time stars in their new homes. And every year, many of those players fail to live up to the lofty expectations that are inevitably attached to their blockbuster contracts. 

You had Mike Wallace, Andy Levitre and Paul Kruger in 2013, Jairus Byrd and Branden Albert in 2014, Darrelle Revis, Julius Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Torrey Smith and arguably even Ndamukong Suh in 2015 and you already have Brock Osweiler and Kelvin Beachum from 2016.

Which high-priced 2017 free agents will go bust? Here are seven strong candidates. 

New England Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore

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The New England Patriots gave more guaranteed money to cornerback Stephon Gilmore than every other corner in the league except Josh Norman, Patrick Peterson and Joe Haden. That in spite of the fact the five-year veteran has never been elected to a Pro Bowl (he was an injury replacement last year) and is coming off a season in which Pro Football Focus ranked him 60th among 120 qualified players at that position. 

Gilmore gave up completions on more than 60 percent of the passes thrown his way last season, and only 10 NFL corners took more penalties. An argument can be made that he was the third-best corner on the Buffalo roster, behind Ronald Darby and slot man Nickell Robey-Coleman. 

The 26-year-old Gilmore did have five interceptions in 2016, giving him 14 for his career, but he also missed his 12th game in the last four years, and he hasn't played a complete season since he was a rookie in 2012. 

I know Bill Belichick has football's Midas touch, but on the surface it's hard to see how Gilmore will live up to this contract, especially when it appears the Pats could have had the high-upside A.J. Bouye for less guaranteed money. 

Carolina Panthers OT Matt Kalil

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Offensive tackle Matt Kalil is already an NFL draft bust, so the former No. 4 overall pick faces one hell of an uphill battle in order to avoid the same label as a free-agent signing in Carolina. 

The Panthers gave Kalil $31 million guaranteed on a five-year, $55.5 million contract last week, making him the fifth-highest-paid offensive tackle in football in terms of guaranteed money. 

That despite the fact the soon-to-be 28-year-old surrendered 18 sacks and took 22 penalties as one of the lowest-graded offensive tackles in the league in 2014 and 2015, per Pro Football Focus, before missing most of the 2016 campaign due to a hip injury. 

He wasn't much better as a sophomore in 2013 and hasn't really played consistently well since his 2012 rookie season. 

What do the Panthers see in Kalil? I'm not sure, but I get the feeling that in a year or two they'll be wishing they'd signed Andrew Whitworth or Riley Reiff instead. 

Los Angeles Chargers OT Russell Okung

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Soon after the Panthers made headlines by giving an obscene amount of money to a left tackle that hadn't put together a successful season in several years, the Los Angeles Chargers could be heard asking the girl next to them to hold their drink. 

See, 2010 No. 6 overall pick Russell Okung hasn't played consistently well since President Barack Obama's first term. But that didn't stop the Chargers from making him the second-highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL. 

The contract: $53 million over four years, with $25 million guaranteed, despite the fact Okung is a penalty machine coming off a one-and-done season in Denver, where he was graded by Pro Football Focus as the seventh-worst pass-blocker among regular left tackles. 

That came after a six-year stretch with the Seattle Seahawks in which Okung missed 24 games due to injury. He hasn't received a positive PFF grade since 2012, and he was the league's most penalized player between 2011 and 2014. 

This just goes to show how desperate teams are for seemingly talented offensive tackles, especially on the blind side. 

The Chargers have had one of the least efficient offensive lines in the league for the better part of a decade, and they were ready to move on from the injury-prone King Dunlap. But this reeks of desperate and is far too much money for a below-average player who is very unlikely to provide an upgrade at left tackle. 

Chicago Bears QB Mike Glennon

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Quarterback Mike Glennon hasn't started an NFL game since 2014, and it's not as though he was good back then either.

The 2013 third-round pick completed only 57.4 percent of his passes as a sophomore that year, losing four of his five starts. A few months later, his team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, used their top draft pick on quarterback Jameis Winston.

Glennon has thrown 11 NFL passes since. 

But there were the Chicago Bears on the first day of free agency 2017, giving Glennon the largest annual salary among offensive players on this year's free-agent market. 

Of course, even with a $15 million salary Glennon is still only the 22nd-highest paid quarterback in football. But they could have kept the more accomplished and talented Jay Cutler for cheaper, or they could have instead invested in a signal-caller with a higher ceiling. Somebody like Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith or Matt Barkley*.

Or they could have avoided overpaying a backup-caliber quarterback to try to disguise himself as their starter and focused instead on the draft. That would have made sense considering they're probably rebuilding after a 3-13 season, especially with top receiver Alshon Jeffery leaving. 

Glennon has been set up to fail in Chicago, where he doesn't have enough talent or support to live up to a three-year, $45 million contract. 

*That one was a joke. Or was it?

Jacksonville Jaguars DE Calais Campbell

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Unlike almost everyone else on this list, I think Calais Campbell is a good, sometimes great NFL player. The versatile defensive end can rush the passer and shut down the run, he was a Pro Bowler in 2014 and 2015, and probably should have made it back in 2016. He's also missed just two games in the last four years. 

Still, a four-year, $60 million contract with $30 million guaranteed from the Jacksonville Jaguars makes Campbell the highest-paid non-quarterback of this free-agent season, which seems fairly silly considering his age (he'll be 31 before he plays another game) and his fuel level (he's played in 138 games over the last nine years, starting 120 of them). 

In the last six years, he's been on the field for well over 80 percent of Arizona's defensive snaps, per PFF. Now he goes to Jacksonville, where he'll have to make a position change and he'll have less support than he did with the Cardinals. 

When will Campbell run out of gas? If the answer is 2017 or 2018, this move will have backfired on the Jags. 

Los Angeles Rams WR Robert Woods

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Wide receiver Robert Woods' new contract with the Los Angeles Rams is worth more than DeSean Jackson's with the Buccaneers. It pays him a higher average annual salary than the deal Terrelle Pryor got from the Redskins and more guaranteed money than Alshon Jeffery received from the Eagles. 

Now, for those of you who don't live in Western New York or aren't USC fans, I'll explain who Robert Woods is. 

Woods is a 24-year-old receiver with 12 total touchdowns, 19 dropped passes, per PFF, and nothing close to a Pro Bowl nod in four NFL seasons. He isn't particularly tall or fast or durable. He was productive enough in college to become a second-round pick, but he's never had more than 70 catches, 700 yards or five touchdowns in a season, and he had only one 1,000-year campaign with the Trojans. 

Woods has shown glimpses of star potential—he had a 10-catch, 162-yard performance in Seattle last year—and he did catch a career-high 67.1 percent of the passes thrown his way in 2016, but he disappeared far too often. 

That could change in Los Angeles, but considering how many chances he had in the Buffalo offense, I wouldn't get my hopes up if I were a Rams fan. 

San Francisco 49ers LB Malcolm Smith

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Linebacker Malcolm Smith didn't sign a blockbuster contract in free agency, but a five-year, $26.5 million deal with $11.5 million guaranteed still qualifies as ridiculous when you look at Smith's uninspiring resume. 

It's as though the new San Francisco 49ers regime watched tape from Smith's good-not-great 2013 season in Seattle, remembered that he was a toss-up Super Bowl MVP later that year and then faxed his agent a contract. 

That contract is the ninth-largest among inside linebackers league-wide, despite the fact Smith was graded by PFF as one of the 10 worst inside linebackers in the game with the Raiders last season and one of the 20 worst (out of 60 qualifiers) the year before that. Smith hardly saw the field with Seattle in 2014, which means he peaked in Super Bowl XLVIII. 

And yet Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers, Vontaze Burfict and Lorenzo Alexander (who had 12.5 sacks last season) will all make less than Smith in 2017.

What were the 49ers thinking? This guy is done, and he never could rush the passer or be relied on in coverage. Yet he's being paid like a high-quality starter.