March Madness 2017: Sleeper Picks with Bracket-Busting Potential

Now that the 2017 NCAA tournament brackets are available for consumption, the fun begins.

College hoops fiends can finally redirect their obsession from bubble teams to sleeper schools positioned to muddle brackets. Instead of evaluating potential underdogs in a vacuum, they can weigh the matchups for profitable picks.

Then again, ESPN's Men Tournament Challenge received a record 13 million bracket submissions last year, per ESPNMediaZone.com's Kevin Ota. Even if a few million people pick randomly, that leaves millions more also scouring the field for dark horses.

With only 64 choices, every non-No. 16 seed will carry a contingent of followers who confidently feel they have unearthed the tournament's hidden gem. Even if that's not entirely the case, sharing a successful No. 10 seed with a minority of contestants—but don't expect to be alone in picking under-seeded Wichita State to win at least once—could make the difference in an office pool (which of course is a free, friendly competition involving no gambling).

The entire country is searching for sleepers, so none of them are truly slumbering. Yet these three teams can outperform the selection committee's placement, hurting the majority while helping a select, shrewd few. 

Bracket

Printable Bracket

Sleeper Teams

Marquette

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Deep shooting is a great equalizer for an underdog, especially one facing a defensive-minded squad looking to lull opponents into submission. If No. 10 Marquette catches fire behind the arc against No. 7 South Carolina, it can win the battle of clashing styles.

The selection committee pitted an elite offense against an elite defense in the East Region. According to KenPom.com, the Golden Eagles rank No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency while the Gamecocks place No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Neither is particularly stout on the other end of the court, but Marquette wields a superior 7.5-point average scoring margin. It has fueled its 82.5 points per game by converting a nation-best 43 percent of its three-point attempts.

As observed by Sports Illustrated's Chris Johnson, the Big East squad also places second in catch-and-shoot efficiency. Per Johnson, assistant coach Stan Johnson has no qualms about embracing the team's identity.

"We have three-point shooters," Johnson said. "That's our specialty. ... On nights when they don't go in, maybe it doesn't look as good. But that's who we are—that's how we're built." 

It's often a boom-or-bust formula, and the Golden Eagles have busted more lately with six losses over their final 11 contests. Yet they don't depend on one or two sharpshooters. No player averages 14 or more points per game, but five reside in double digits.

Perhaps the slow finish takes the shine off them as a trendy pick. If that's the case, pounce on a high-upside choice with a deep roster of marksmen.

Rhode Island

Consider Rhode Island an awake sleeper whom many will tap as a Sweet 16 selection. CBS Sports' Seth Davis endorsed the A-10 champions as such before a favorable bracket reveal:

The red-hot Rams roll into March Madness boasting a seven-game winning streak, playing their way into at-large consideration before taking matters into their own hands by winning the conference tournament. 

Ranking a healthy No. 31 in RPI and 37 in KenPom's team efficiency, they're the perfect No. 11 seed to strike everyone's fancy. They open the second round against the Creighton Bluejays, who have dropped eight of their last 15 games without guard Maurice Watson Jr. The senior turned himself into police on charges of sexual assault in late February.

If the Rams advance, they may encounter the Oregon Ducks, who recently lost forward Chris Boucher to a torn ACL. This will put all the pressure on Dillon Brooks, who has averaged 20.5 points in a dozen games since Feb. 1.

Meanwhile, a healthy E.C. Matthews has recorded 18-20 points in each of Rhode Island's last four bouts. The junior, who tore his ACL last season, looked better than ever when delivering a powerful jam during the final regular-season contest against Davidson, per Sports Illustrated:

According to William Geoghegan of The Independent, Rams head coach Dan Hurley pinpointed the moment as a significant milestone in Matthews' recovery to full strength:

All that creates a savory recipe to a Sweet 16 appearance. A crowded bandwagon, however, could diminish the returns of picking a small-conference school that split its six games against top-50 RPI opponents. Beware the Rams' subpar free-throw shooting, as they shoot a troubling 65.5 percent from the charity stripe.

Middle Tennessee State

As a No. 15 seed making its second tournament appearance since 1990 last year, Middle Tennessee State shocked tournament mainstay Michigan State. Now situated at No. 12, a popular spot to target upset picks, the Blue Raiders may also draw a heavy following.

As indicated by their placement, this year's iteration is better than the team that stunned the Spartans. They set a program record with 30 wins, 20 of which they accrued over the last 21 games. 

Senior forward Reggie Upshaw and junior guard Giddy Potts grew familiar to March's dance floor last year. They now have another partner in senior transfer JaCorey Williams, who has led the team with 17.3 points per game on a 54.1 field-goal percentage.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Minnesota, meanwhile, is KenPom's lowest-rated No. 5 seed in team efficiency. The Golden Gophers, who lost five in a row earlier this year, collectively shot 43.5 percent from the floor and 34.5 percent from behind the arc.

When a No. 5 vs. No. 12 could have easily occurred as a No. 7 vs. No. 10, it's wise to roll the dice on the worse seed.

FiveThirtyEight's projection model sees the showdown as more of a toss-up, giving Middle Tennessee a 48 percent win probability. Only Wichita State (69 percent) and Xavier (49 percent) are given better chances as a double-digit seed.

Butler is also KenPom's worst No. 4, so the Blue Raiders have a feasible path to the Sweet 16. Don't assume last year's success forebodes another run, but the bracket shaped up perfectly for them to inflict damage in less surprising fashion.