NCAA Tournament 2017: Ranking the Hottest Teams Heading into Selection Sunday
Is there anything better than daytime basketball in mid-March? There's already far too much bad college basketball poetry out there about this, so I won't burden people any further with things of that nature. But it does bear repeating. It always does.
For all their drama and regional pride, conference tournaments are the ideal precursor to the big event. At the national level, they are a useful filter for finding those teams that could light up the NCAA tournament.
So which teams are looking strong as we enter this final weekend before Selection Sunday? Who has advanced their position and is, as the analysts like to say, peaking at the right time? Here's a look at the nation's hottest teams.
They are ranked based on their recent performance, with emphasis on the conference tournaments, and the difficulty of their opposition.
All statistics are accurate as of 11:30 p.m. ET Friday and provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
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Last 10 games: 8-2. Vanderbilt kicked it up a notch in March, when it went 3-0 with two wins over the Florida Gators. The second of those two victories came Friday night in overtime and put the Commodores in the SEC tourney semifinals. This is all especially remarkable given that they were 9-11 at one point in January.
Key contributors: When your team is shooting 38.1 percent from three, it's a group effort. Junior guard Matthew Fisher-Davis leads Vandy with 13.8 points per game, but 7'1" big man Luke Kornet (13.4 points, 6.2 rebounds and two blocks per game and 33.8 percent from three) is probably their MVP.
Tournament ceiling: Bleacher Report's bracket projection has Vandy penciled in for a No. 11 seed. Commodore fans are probably happy to be here, because—again—they started the season 9-11. That's absurd. Their hot streak could go cold in the big tournament, especially if their shooting does, but be glad they made it this far.
6. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
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Last 10 games: 9-1. Emerging from the Colonial Athletic Association, the UNC Wilmington Seahawks torched all comers down the stretch, with their lone hiccup coming at Elon by one measly point. The Seahawks also took the CAA regular-season title.
Key contributors: Two guys make it happen in Wilmington. Guard C.J. Bryce is the leading scorer (17.6 points per game) and Devontae Cacok is the fourth-leading scorer (12.3) and top rebounder (9.6 per game). Cacok also led the nation in field-goal percentage with an astonishing 79.9 percent conversion rate, per Basketball Reference.
Tournament ceiling: Let's not go too ridiculous here. Yes, the Seahawks are a scorching-hot team, but they're still decidedly in the mid-major stratum. That said, could they win a game, perhaps find themselves on the mischievous end of a 5-12 matchup? Interestingly enough, that's where B/R has them slotted now in its bracketology projection.
5. Michigan Wolverines
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Last 10 games: 8-2. As of Friday, that included one win over Wisconsin and two over regular-season conference champion Purdue, widely deemed the best team in the Big Ten. That's not bad by any measure, but as most fans know, Michigan may be hot for reasons that are a little more immediate than its 10-game record.
Key contributors: Thankfully, no one was hurt when the plane carrying the Wolverines skidded off the runway Wednesday.
"I'm usually not scared, but today I was legitimately scared," forward Moritz Wagner said, per Jon Solomon of CBS Sports. "But you've got to jump on the horse as soon as possible, and I think we all did that, and I'm very proud of everybody."
Weary and rattled, Michigan regrouped and beat Illinois by 20 in its first game of the Big Ten tournament. The next day, it beat Purdue in overtime.
Wagner and his 12 points and 4.3 rebounds per game are helpful, but point guard Derrick Walton Jr. is the real story. He now leads the Wolverines with 14.6 points and 4.5 assists per game. Over this 10-game stretch, those averages are 16 and 6.6. He's the straw that stirs the drink.
Tournament ceiling: According to CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm (h/t Land Of 10's Sean Keeler), the highest dance seed Michigan could get is seven. And that's if it wins the whole B1G tournament. More than likely, it'll end up with an eighth seed and a tough game against a No. 9 like, say, Dayton or Oklahoma State. As hot as the team has been, it'd be lucky to get past a seed with significant offensive firepower.
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4. Wichita State Shockers
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Last 10 games: A perfect 10-0. With the departure of so many key seniors after last season, no one was terribly surprised when the Shockers started 5-2 and then 9-3. Not many eyelashes fluttered when they dropped an early conference game to a nice Illinois State team and appeared to pass the Missouri Valley Conference torch, at least for this season.
But Wichita State circled the wagons and stormed back, winning 15 straight to this point, including an MVC tourney final win over that same Illinois State.
Key contributors: Sophomore forward Markis McDuffie leads the team in points (11.8) and rebounds (5.7) per game. Junior guard Conner Frankamp has been on a tear of late, averaging 15.3 points on 50 percent shooting in the tourney to snag the MVP award.
Tournament ceiling: As of Friday, Bleacher Report's bracket projection has Wichita State as a sixth seed. Assuming it can stay at or around that area, the team has a great chance to reach the tournament's second weekend. Eight different players average at least 15 minutes of playing time per game. And they play as a team, especially on the defensive end, where they allow only 62.4 points per game, good for 16th in the nation, per NCAA stats.
Nevertheless, the same question continues to plague the Shockers: strength of schedule. Coach Gregg Marshall loaded Wichita State's non-conference slate with tough games—then watched his team lose those games to Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State.
So their ceiling is a bit uncertain. But a Sweet 16 berth remains a safe bet.
3. SMU Mustangs
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Last 10 games: The SMU Mustangs are a spotless 10-0. Granted, it could all come crashing down Saturday against an also-hot Central Florida squad in the American Athletic Conference tournament semifinals. For now, though, it's been a perfect end to SMU's remarkable regular season, which saw them left for dead after a 4-3 start.
Key contributors: Semi Ojeleye transferred to SMU from a little East Coast private school called Duke. The junior forward has blossomed as a Mustang and now leads the team in scoring with 18.5 points per game. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Statistics from Basketball Reference have Ojeleye first or second in the AAC in nine categories, including field-goal percentage (48.5), win shares (6.7) and offensive rating (132.2).
Throw in steady point guard Shake Milton—second on the team with 13.3 points per game and first with 4.5 helpers—and you have a solid nucleus.
Tournament ceiling: The bracket projection has them as a five seed. But according to the KenPom ratings, this is the 15th-best team in the country. If that's true, depending on the draw, this is a Sweet 16 team. An Elite Eight spot certainly isn't out of the realms of possibility, although the Final Four seems a little ambitious for a team that only really goes seven deep.
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Last 10 games: If you want to get technical about it, the 9-1 stretch that closed Gonzaga's regular season was its worst stretch of the 2016-17 campaign. When you finish 32-1, tough stretches are hard to come by. The team's whole season has been a hot streak, capped by just breezing on through the West Coast Conference tournament to finish the regular season in the top five of both polls.
Key contributors: You know about the leadership of Nigel Williams-Goss, leading the team in points (16.9) and assists (4.8) per game. You know about Przemek Karnowski, the mountain of a center with the satiny low-post game. But perhaps you didn't know about Jonathan Williams, the power forward who keys the Bulldogs' surprising defense.
"His length and combination of defensive execution—in space and at the rim—limits the mismatches Gonzaga faces on that end of the floor," wrote Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com. "He's comfortable against big men or perimeter players. And he's smart."
Tournament ceiling: Gonzaga has a well-documented history, in the aggregate, of tournament underperformance. Is this the year they break with that tradition?
People seem to make that prediction about Gonzaga every year.
The team's two-way play and balanced scoring—five players averaging in double figures—have it in a strong position, but it's hard to slot the Bulldogs in for more than the Elite Eight until they put themselves over that particular hump. But their WCC tourney run almost certainly cemented a one seed.
1. UCLA Bruins
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Last 10 games: 10-0. This has a chance to change late Friday (or early Saturday for East Coasters) when UCLA takes on Arizona, but even if it does, the Bruins are still a red-hot bunch. Oregon, Arizona and USC all fell below their sword during this current unbeaten streak.
Key contributors: Do I really have to name them? Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf are unofficial family members in every basketball-watching household in the nation. But don't forget sharpshooter Bryce Alford and Sixth Man of the Year (on my nonexistent ballot anyway) Aaron Holiday. Together, these four chip in 60 total points per game on average. No wonder they lead the nation in scoring offense with 90.8 points per game.
Tournament ceiling: North Carolina lost to Duke on Friday. Kansas and Baylor lost previously. That opens the door for the Bruins. If UCLA can work its way up to a No. 2 or a No. 1 seed, it'd have an excellent chance at the Final Four. But what am I saying? The Bruins have a good chance even if they don't take home the Pac-12 Conference tourney title. They're the hottest team in the country at this level.
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