NFL Mock Draft 2017: Predicting Where Top Prospects Will Land in 1st Round

A defense-loaded class put on a show in Indianapolis at the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine. 

This isn't to suggest the 2017 class is soft on the offensive side of things, but depth in the trenches leaves something to be desired, and the overall reaction to the top four quarterbacks, if one can even nail down a top four, seems lukewarm at best.

Defense? This class has it in droves. Teams looking for versatile linemen who can kick inside to rush the passer when asked are everywhere. Ditto for linebackers who can put their hand in the dirt or rush standing up. Defensive backs who can play every corner spot or others who can run between both safety positions in interchangeable fashion top off the deepest area of the draft overall.

Translation—a quarterback's nightmare. Most of the best prospects were out in force at the combine, putting down official numbers next to film, interviewing and shoring up the medical side of things. Here's an updated look at a mock draft based on team need and prospect value.

2017 Draft Order and Projections

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Cleveland Browns	Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
2	San Francisco 49ers	Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
3	Chicago Bears	Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
5	Tennessee Titans (from Rams)	Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
6	New York Jets	Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
7	Los Angeles Chargers	Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
8	Carolina Panthers	Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
9	Cincinnati Bengals	Malik McDowell, DL, Michigan State
10	Buffalo Bills	Jamal Adams, S, LSU
11	New Orleans Saints	Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama
12	Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)	O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
13	Arizona Cardinals	DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
14	Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)	John Ross, WR, Washington
15	Indianapolis Colts	Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
16	Baltimore Ravens	Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
17	Washington Redskins	Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
18	Tennessee Titans	Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
20	Denver Broncos	Garett Bolles , OT, Utah
21	Detroit Lions	Takkarist McKinley, OLB/DE, UCLA
22	Miami Dolphins	Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
23	New York Giants	Tim Williams, LB/DE, Alabama
24	Oakland Raiders	Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida
25	Houston Texans	Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech
26	Seattle Seahawks	Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
27	Kansas City Chiefs	Dan Feeney, OG, Indiana
28	Dallas Cowboys	Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
29	Green Bay Packers	Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
30	Pittsburgh Steelers	David Njoku, TE, Miami
31	Atlanta Falcons	Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida
32	New England Patriots	Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut

Stock Updates After Combine

Stock Up: Malik McDowell, DL, Michigan State

Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

Those in the know understood Michigan State's Malik McDowell would put on a show in Indianapolis.

After all, he's 6'6" and 295 pounds, ran a 4.85 40-yard dash and hit a time of 7.69 seconds in the three-cone drill, displaying the expected burst and speed alongside lengthy arms and plenty of power.

Sounds like a can't-miss player, right?

Indeed, though the biggest knock on McDowell has always been his motor. Look at what an NFC North scout told NFL.com's Lance Zierlein: "He has a chance to be a dominant player in our league. I mean dominant. It hasn't turned on for him all the way yet but if it does, he could be like Mario Williams. He's just a little lazy, and I worry about whether he is going to be a self-starter."

Coming out of the combine, though, there haven't been any major red flags when it comes to interviews or this area overall with McDowell. The league and fans remain blinded by his alarming size and athleticism, which rarely hits the NFL level, so rightfully so.

Above, the Cincinnati Bengals pull the trigger. McDowell offers what they need in the form of an elite edge presence who can kick to the interior and still have the power and speed to rush the passer. While he needs some work mechanically, the defensive-minded staff that got the most out of Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap over the years shouldn't have problems unlocking McDowell's full potential.

Stock Down: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

A prospect can indeed hurt his stock by not performing certain drills in Indianapolis. 

Whether one views the 40-yard dash as important or not, a prospect viewed as needing to prove something in it can change the conversation if he opts out of the opportunity.

Such is the case with Clemson wideout Mike Williams. He chose to opt out of the dash despite being a player classified as needing it because he's a bigger wideout who doesn't flash wild separation on film.

Williams still weighed in at an outstanding 6'4" and 218 pounds, but he waved off the dash. A quote from an NFL evaluator, captured by Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson, takes a closer look at why the seemingly meaningless dash is a big deal for a prospect like Williams:

"

Some guys just won’t take receivers who run slower than a 4.6, just like some guys won’t take quarterbacks who are shorter than 6-foot-1. [For Williams], a lot of it will depend on do you like the speed that he plays with on the tape. From what I’ve seen, his greatest separation comes when his feet leave the ground – when he’s going up for a ball. I don’t see as much separation when his feet are on the ground and he’s just trying to outrun the guy in front of him. … If he’s slower than 4.65, he’s not going to get much separation [in the NFL] and you’re going to have to draw up ways to get him the ball using that size. That’s just more limiting than a guy who can outrun coverage and jump above it.

"

This helps explain why the dash is so critical for certain players.

Williams might have caught 98 passes for 1,361 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2016, but he did so while playing with Deshaun Watson and a year removed from missing all of 2015. Shying away from important tests he and his representatives know are critical to his future hurts his stock.

There is always a chance none of this is a big deal in the rearview mirror. A guy by the name of A.J. Green had a miserable combine. Williams is of a similar mold, which is why a team like the Baltimore Ravens will still roll the dice in the middle of the first round.

Stock Up: Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

Few benefited more from the combine than Connecticut's Obi Melifonwu, even if most knew going in he'd put on a show.

Melifonwu is a rare blend of size and speed at safety, coming in at 6'4" and 224 pounds. He ranked among the best at his position in the 40-yard dash (4.40 seconds), vertical jump (44 inches) and broad jump (141).

To help contextualize this, a note by NFL Research:

Those are simply physical comparisons, but Melifonwu certainly holds up on film as a quality safety prospect. Maybe he won't be a great deep-zone guy, but drafting him to be a line-of-scrimmage enforcer against the run who can drop into short coverages and man up against tight ends seems a good use for his combination of talents and measureables.

Even a big day at the combine doesn't shoot Melifonwu way up the draft boards, though, not in the same class as Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker and others.

What it does do, though, is nudge Melifonwu into the first-round conversation for a team like the New England Patriots. With the team potentially losing Duron Harmon to free agency, handing Bill Belichick the keys to a prospect with the tools Melifonwu touts is simply bad news for the rest of the league.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.