Pac-12 Tournament 2017: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
Since Arizona, Oregon and UCLA are three of the best teams in college basketball, the 2017 Pac-12 tournament should be a wild and entertaining event.
But the excellence from those programs has also resulted in a top-heavy outlook for the four-day showcase at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Is any other Pac-12 team capable of surviving that group to pull off a stunning championship run?
Unless Cal or USC grabs a marquee win (or two), the conference might be without a fourth representative in the field of 68 for the NCAA tournament. Otherwise, Utah highlights the group of programs needing that unexpected title to continue their season.
The complete bracket with tipoff times and TV listings is available on the conference's official website.
12. Oregon State Beavers
1 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 5 Cal (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
One season after an appearance in the NCAA tournament, Oregon State (5-26, 1-17) has plummeted to the bottom of the Pac-12.
Even with Tres Tinkle, this Beavers team struggled. Last year's No. 2 scorer poured in 20.2 points per game yet Oregon State lost to Lamar, Nevada, Tulsa and Fresno State. A broken right wrist ended his season after six outings.
Two weeks ago, the Beavs mustered a 68-67 victory over Utah for their first Pac-12 win. But we're not anticipating a repeat.
Prediction: First-round exit
11. Washington Huskies
2 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 6 USC (Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET)
Markelle Fultz has fulfilled the lofty hype and expectations. But he's still not enough to make Washington (9-21, 2-16) a contender.
Entering the tournament, the Huskies have surrendered the third-worst opponent offensive rating (110.8) among Power Five conference teams, per Sports-Reference.com. Considering the program's up-tempo style, that has resulted in a handful of lopsided losses.
According to Christian Caple of the Tacoma News Tribune, Fultz (knee) is unlikely to play in the tournament. Unless Washington can limit its turnovers and catch fire from long distance, its Pac-12 tourney won't last long.
Prediction: First-round exit
10. Washington State Cougars
3 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 7 Colorado (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
Washington State (13-17, 6-12) has some productive pieces. The trick is getting them to produce at the same time.
Josh Hawkinson—who averages a double-double—and Ike Iroegbu are the most consistent scorers. But the Cougars really never know what they're going to get from Malachi Flynn, Conor Clifford, Charles Callison and Robert Franks.
If Wazzu can control the pace and get a balanced effort from Hawkinson and Iroegbu plus two of the players listed above, they'll have a chance to upend Colorado. Beyond that, though, the Cougs will be heavy underdogs.
Prediction: First-round exit
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9. Stanford Cardinal
4 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 8 Arizona State (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Stanford (14-16, 6-12) has a decent rotation filled with juniors and seniors, but that experience shouldn't be flaunted when the regular season was full of losses.
The Cardinal don't have an efficient offense, especially since Dorian Pickens is the only long-range threat. Plus, perimeter defense is a problem. Unless they control the tempo, Arizona State's offense will settle into a comfortable run-and-gun attack.
Even if Stanford squeaks out a win, Oregon's backcourt would overwhelm the Cardinal in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: First-round exit
8. Arizona State Sun Devils
5 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 9 Stanford (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Pace and space. As long as shots are falling, that's the blueprint to victory for Arizona State (14-17, 6-12) in the first round.
But with Oregon looming in the quarterfinals, poor defense should be the Sun Devils' downfall. The only power-conference team with a worse defensive rating is LSU, per Sports-Reference.com. However, the Ducks boast the 20th-most efficient offense overall.
Arizona State has legitimate offensive firepower with Torian Graham, Tra Holder and Shannon Evans, and if they're all shooting well, the team is dangerous. But with a sound defensive team like Oregon standing in the way, the Sun Devils will be heading home early.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
7. Colorado Buffaloes
6 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 10 Washington State (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
For the second straight year, Colorado (18-13, 8-10) gets Washington State in the first round. The question is which version of the Cougs actually shows up in Las Vegas.
After toppling Colorado in January, Wazzu lost by 32 points in mid-February. However, the Buffs have enjoyed a commendable turnaround since starting 0-7 in conference play. They rattled off a 7-3 record to close the campaign.
Perimeter defense will be key for Colorado, which was 3-11 during the regular season when allowing a three-point percentage of 35 or higher. The Buffs have a slight edge over Washington State but will struggle to contain Arizona's well-rounded offense.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
6. USC Trojans
7 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 11 Washington (Wednesday, 11:30 p.m. ET)
USC (23-8, 10-8) went undefeated in nonconference play and started 8-4 against Pac-12 competition, but a brutal three-game series with Oregon, UCLA and Arizona resulted in a slog to the finish. The Trojans also fell to Arizona State.
But a couple of matchups against Washington schools is just what USC needed to cap the regular season on a high note. Another outing opposite a Fultz-less Huskies team should allow Andy Enfield's charges to begin the Pac-12 tournament with a win.
UCLA comes next, and rebounding will likely determine the winner. The Trojans are 15-1 when they win the glass battle but just 8-7 otherwise. Reducing second-chance and transition opportunities are essential to beat the Bruins.
That, however, is much easier said than done.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
5. Cal Golden Bears
8 of 12
First matchup: vs. No. 12 Oregon State (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Cal (19-11, 10-8) is teetering on the wrong side of the bubble. With inevitable bid-stealers shrinking the at-large field, the Bears probably need a run to the Pac-12 championship.
Fortunately for Cuonzo Martin's team, it could not have an easier matchup in the first round. Cal just walloped Oregon State 76-46 to close out February, sweeping the season series.
A quarterfinals clash with Utah—which obliterated Cal 74-44 immediately after that rout of Oregon State—is an intriguing matchup. The Bears typically play excellent defense, but they disappeared in that game while the offense lacked any balance.
Ivan Rabb and Jabari Bird are capable of propelling a bounce-back day, but that's more wishful thinking than a product of recent performance. The lack of scoring depth has been and will be Cal's downfall in the Pac-12 tournament.
Prediction: Advance to quarterfinals
4. Utah Utes
9 of 12
First matchup: vs. Oregon State/Cal winner (Thursday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Utah (19-10, 10-7) sports a decent-looking record, but its resume lacks a single quality win. The best triumph right now is against USC, which is on the verge of a collapse.
In other words, the Utes aren't heading to March Madness without a Pac-12 title. As long as Kyle Kuzma and someone else—no matter if it's David Collette or a guard—control the glass against Cal, Utah will advance to a showdown with Oregon.
Once again, rebounding will be critical. But to dethrone the Ducks, the Utes will need a stable of three-point shooters to knock down contested shots. Combine that with Pac-12-best shot-blocking, and Oregon is a defensive nightmare.
A deliberate pace could keep Utah within striking distance, but its NCAA dreams will wither down the stretch.
Prediction: Advance to semifinals
3. UCLA Bruins
10 of 12
First matchup: vs. Washington/USC winner (Thursday, 11:30 p.m. ET)
T.J. Leaf's status isn't certain, but Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times noted coach Steve Alford said he expects the forward to return for the Pac-12 tourney.
Regardless, UCLA (28-3, 15-3) should cruise to the first win.
Although USC earned an upset over the Bruins earlier this year, it was its fourth-worst three-point shooting day of 2016-17. Bryce Alford trudged to a season-worst three points, and Leaf only managed eight. Expecting that to happen again is unwise.
UCLA's rotation is limited, and that would become a problem if Leaf is sidelined. Presuming his availability, though, the offense has explosive potential with shooters all over the floor and Lonzo Ball controlling the up-tempo system without dominating the ball.
The Bruins' own shaky defense may be its undoing in the NCAA tourney, but UCLA will attack the defensive flaws of familiar opponents and cut down the nets in Vegas.
Prediction: Pac-12 champions
2. Arizona Wildcats
11 of 12
First matchup: vs. Washington State/Colorado winner (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)
At its best, Arizona (27-4, 16-2) has the makings of a Final Four squad. Led by Allonzo Trier (16.4) and Lauri Markkanen (15.2), six players average at least nine points.
But the balanced offense must be careful toeing the line between being patient and settling for shots. The Wildcats cannot allow an opposition to slow down their offense because they struggle to break down defenses in half-court sets.
That shouldn't be an issue during the opening game; UCLA is a different story. Arizona needs to limit transition chances by either forcing the Bruins to collapse into the paint and/or capitalizing on those inside looks. Doing so consistently is the biggest challenge—and one that will eliminate the Wildcats.
Prediction: Advance to semifinals
1. Oregon Ducks
12 of 12
First matchup: vs. Stanford/Arizona State winner (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET)
By virtue of a tiebreaker, Oregon (27-4, 16-2) claimed the No. 1 seed. And the Ducks have everything you want in a championship team.
They should advance to the Pac-12 finals with relative ease, since both UCLA and Arizona are on the opposite side of the bracket. Oregon must avoid a lapse on defense against inferior teams, but that's been a rare sight compared to last year.
UCLA's rapid pace isn't an issue for the Ducks, but the constant jump-shooting negates their shot-blocking advantage. Another great finish should be in store, though Oregon will come up short in the final contest before a potential deep March Madness run.
Prediction: Lose in championship game
Follow Bleacher Report Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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