March Madness 2017: Schedule and Bracket Predictions for Bubble Teams

On Selection Sunday (March 12), college basketball fans will see pundits yelling at each other on television in outrage about which bubble teams made or missed the NCAA men's basketball tournament field.

In years past, this practice seemed outrageous. Who cares about the last few teams in or out?

The last decade or so of March Madness competition, however, has featured some bubble teams getting hot at the right time and going deep in the tournament.

George Mason (a No. 11 seed in 2006), VCU (a No. 11 seed in 2011) and Syracuse (a No. 10 seed last year) received at-large bids before making Final Four runs.

The saying in poker is that you only need a chip and a chair for a chance to win. A similar sentiment can be said for college basketball—all teams need are a place at the table for a chance to make the Final Four.

Below you'll find analysis on three bubble teams who are looking for that place at the table and a chance to etch their name alongside GMU, VCU and 'Cuse. These teams have been pulled from ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's latest bubble update:

First, here is a look at the NCAA tournament schedule. The times and locations for the First Four and first- and second-round matchups will be revealed shortly after the bracket is released on Sunday, March 12, and the times and locations for ensuing matchups will be announced as the tournament progresses.

NCAA Tournament Schedule

Date	Round	Location
Tuesday, March 14 and Wednesday, March 15	First Four	Dayton
Thursday, March 16 and Saturday, March 18	First/Second	Buffalo
Thursday, March 16 and Saturday, March 18	First/Second	Milwaukee
Thursday, March 16 and Saturday, March 18	First/Second	Salt Lake City
Thursday, March 16 and Saturday, March 18	First/Second	Orlando
Wednesday, March 17 and Friday, March 19	First/Second	Greenville
Wednesday, March 17 and Friday, March 19	First/Second	Indianapolis
Wednesday, March 17 and Friday, March 19	First/Second	Tulsa
Wednesday, March 17 and Friday, March 19	First/Second	Sacramento
Thursday, March 23 and Saturday, March 25	Midwest Regional	Kansas City
Thursday, March 23 and Saturday, March 25	West Regional	San Jose
Friday, March 24 and Sunday, March 26	South Regional	Memphis
Friday, March 24 and Sunday, March 26	East Regional	New York
Saturday, April 1 and Sunday, April 3	Final Four	Phoenix

Source: ncaa.com

Also, take a look at the NCAA Selection Committee criteria as well to see how the committee will decide on the teams that make the tournament, as well as the seedings.

California

Two bullet points in the above criteria link stand out when dissecting the Golden Bears' tournament case.

• "An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings;"
• "The quality of wins and losses"

Breaking the case down even further, one has to wonder whether the committee will consider Cal's losses at Arizona (62-57) and home vs. Oregon (68-65) as pluses. That might especially be the case when discussing the loss against the Ducks, as Cal led by 16 early in the second half.

Oregon and Arizona are ranked fourth and ninth in the Rating Percentage Index, respectively, and have great chances to land top-two seeds in the NCAA tournament. If Cal wins one of those games, then it's not even in the bubble discussion.

However, as of this writing, the Golden Bears are ranked 52nd in RPI, and that was before they got crushed at Utah on Thursday night. They also only have two wins against teams ranked in the top 50 of RPI (No. 39 USC and No. 49 Princeton). Finally, Cal is 0-6 overall against teams in the RPI top 25. 

Prediction: The loss to Utah is an ugly mark on Cal's resume. The Golden Bears will need to beat Colorado in the regular-season finale and then advance to the Pac-12 tournament finals to make the NCAA tournament, which would mean a win over Utah in the quarterfinals and UCLA, Oregon or Arizona in the semifinals.

That's unlikely. Cal will be one of the first teams out.

USC

The Trojans' longtime enemy, UCLA, will be their best friend on Selection Sunday.

USC has two signature wins: an emphatic 84-76 victory over UCLA and a 78-73 win over SMU. UCLA and SMU are ranked 15th and 19th in the RPI and are hot right now—the Bruins have won 12 straight, while the Mustangs have taken eight in a row.

The Trojans also have a 22-8 win-loss record, but that's largely inflated by a weak non-conference schedule (167th).

On the flip side, USC is struggling down the stretch, losing four straight games before defeating Washington State.

Granted, three of those losses were to UCLA, Oregon and Arizona, the top three teams in the league, but (a) USC lost those three games by an average of 18.66 points and (b) USC also lost to Arizona State during that losing streak. The Sun Devils are under .500 and won't make the NCAA tournament unless it wins the Pac-12 title.

Furthermore, USC lost to fellow Pac-12 bubble team Cal, 74-73. If USC and Cal are on the edge of the bubble on Selection Sunday, then the committee could lean toward Cal by virtue of the head-to-head win.

Prediction: USC is playing Washington twice—once in the regular-season finale and again in the Pac-12 tournament (they have sewn up the No. 6 and No. 11 seeds in the tournament regardless of how the last set of Pac-12 games shake out).

If the Trojans win both (which is likely considering Washington is currently 9-20 and 2-15 in the Pac-12), they'll have 24 wins, two of which came against current top-20 teams in the RPI. That's hard to reject, even if USC lost to a fellow bubble team in conference.

USC should make the NCAA tournament field.

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons rudely interrupted the bubble conversation with an 88-81 win over Louisville, the No. 7 ranked team in the RPI.

Wake Forest is currently ranked 40th in the RPI and played the 16th-toughest schedule in the nation (and 14th-toughest non-conference slate).

The Demon Deacons also play in the ACC, the deepest conference in the nation. Lunardi predicts that 10 ACC teams will make the tournament, and he has an 11th (Georgia Tech) on the bubble.

The case against Wake Forest is simple: Their win-loss record isn't impressive (17-12 overall and 8-9 in the ACC), and aside from Louisville, the only other team it beat in the top 50 of the RPI is Miami (38th).

That being said, Wake has a chance to boost its resume on Saturday if it beats Virginia Tech, ranked 36th in the RPI, on the road. Wake will also play a tough team in the second round of the ACC tournament (the guess here is Virginia) if it gets that far (almost a certainty), giving it another chance to add a signature win to its resume.

Prediction: Wake loses in Blacksburg in the regular-season finale and finishes with the No. 10 seed in the ACC tournament. It beats No. 15 seed Boston College in the first round before losing to Virginia, an unlucky draw against a very good team. Wake loses that game and is one of the first teams out.

RPI rankings via NCAA.com and are through March 1.

Additional statistics via ESPN.com.