Big Ten Tournament 2017: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
The Big Ten tournament has some unusual storylines this season since the league is without a premier team.
Even though regular-season champion Purdue captured the league's regular-season title by two full games, the Boilermakers have been regularly seeded as a No. 4 or a No. 5 seed after the NCAA shut out the Big Ten from the early look at the bracket.
So Purdue and the conference's other NCAA hopefuls have work to do if they want to earn the committee's respect when it comes to seeding on Selection Sunday. Bubble teams are also few and far between for the league this season, with Illinois and Iowa as the main teams to watch. Both teams need at least one win, if not two, to get an at-large bid in the tournament and potentially give the Big Ten eight or nine teams in the field.
The Big Ten might be down when it comes to a national profile, but this conference tournament has a chance to be wide-open. With a shift in location to Washington D.C. this season, it will be interesting to see if schools like Maryland and Penn State can benefit by getting more fans in the building.
All stats and bracketology information updated as of March 6.
14. Rutgers
1 of 14
First matchup: No. 11 Ohio State (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses in first game
For the third consecutive season, Rutgers (14-17, 3-15) finished in last place in the Big Ten, but they finished this regular season on a high note with a win over Illinois.
The Scarlet Knights take a lot of bad shots and rank 339th in the country in effective field-goal percentage, but Rutgers does have three guys who can make plays in sophomore point guard Corey Sanders, junior forward Deshawn Freeman and junior guard Nigel Johnson.
Offense can be a struggle for Rutgers, but it has a respectable defense that ranks No. 68 in defensive efficiency on KenPom.com. If the Scarlet Knights find themselves in a slower tempo, low-scoring game, their defense gives them a chance.
While Rutgers is not as big of a pushover as the last two seasons, they still come into the Big Ten tournament as a big underdog against Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers when the two played this season, and that should happen again in the Big Ten tournament.
13. Penn State
2 of 14
First matchup: No. 12 Nebraska (Wednesday, 4:30 p.m.)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 5 seed Michigan State in second game
Penn State (14-17, 6-12) has plenty of intriguing young talent that could blossom into a good team in a few years, but the Nittany Lions are currently heading in the wrong direction to end this season.
A loser of five consecutive games, including a 16-point loss to first-round opponent Nebraska, Penn State has struggled to stay consistent and has a tendency to take bad shots. Ranking No. 293 in the country in effective field-goal percentage, the Nittany Lions have four double-figure scorers, but they haven't figured out the best way to play together.
The team's two leading scorers are freshman guard Tony Carr and freshman forward Lamar Stevens, as the former high school teammates show promise for the future. Juniors Shep Garner and Payton Banks are also productive backcourt pieces, and freshman center Mike Watkins also shows signs of promise.
Penn State might be on a losing streak, which included a couple of close losses, but this team continues to play hard through the end of the season. The Nittany Lions might have lost to Nebraska before, but the Huskers are getting blown out by everyone lately as they might be in worse shape.
The next round would mean Michigan State, a team that Penn State beat at the Palestra, but that was a special game where the Nittany Lions had a fired-up, sold-out crowd against a young Michigan State team not used to hostile conference environments. The Spartans are playing way better since then and should bounce Penn State.
12. Nebraska
3 of 14
First matchup: No. 13 Penn State (Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
Not many teams ended the season as badly as Nebraska (12-18, 6-12) did as the Huskers lost four straight games by at least 15 points each. After a promising 3-0 start in conference play that included road wins over Indiana and Maryland, things went downhill quickly for the Huskers as they bottomed out from there.
Senior guard Tai Webster (17.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg) still turned in an all-Big Ten-caliber season as he became one the conference's best all-around players despite never gaining a reliable perimeter jumper. Sophomore guard Glynn Watson Jr. (13.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg) and sophomore forward Ed Morrow (9.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg) were also bright spots this season for the Huskers.
Although Nebraska came away an easy winner against first-round opponent Penn State earlier this season, the Nittany Lions might be the team that is just playing harder at this point in the season. The blowout losses have been ugly for the Huskers, and to lose by 36 points at home to Michigan to end the season is not a good indicator of postseason success.
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11. Ohio State
4 of 14
First matchup: No. 14 Rutgers (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 6 seed Northwestern in second round
Ohio State (17-14, 7-11) dug itself into an early hole with an 0-4 Big Ten start and never really figured things out enough to make any kind of serious NCAA tournament campaign. The Buckeyes have upperclassmen veterans and some talented players but struggled against good competition this season.
Scoring isn't the problem for Ohio State, as Thad Matta's team is actually No. 50 in offensive efficiency. Between senior Marc Loving, junior Jae'Sean Tate, sophomore JaQuan Lyle and sophomore Trevor Thompson, the Buckeyes have four double-figure scorers who can all make plays.
Having multiple playmakers is nice, but Ohio State's offense is also plagued by a high turnover rate (19.1 percent, 215th on KenPom) and they can be mediocre shooting the ball from the perimeter (35.8 percent, 139th in the nation).
Lately, sophomore guard C.J. Jackson has earned more minutes over Lyle playing alongside shooting guard Kam Williams, as he's put together good games against Wisconsin and Indiana among the last three games of the season.
The Buckeyes should have no issues getting by Rutgers in the opening game after beating them in the regular season. Second-round opponent Northwestern beat Ohio State on the road in January and should also be able to take care of the Buckeyes when the Wildcats still have NCAA tournament seeding to play for.
10. Indiana
5 of 14
First matchup: No. 7 Iowa (Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses in first game
Indiana (17-14, 7-11) picked up two of the best nonconference wins anyone could get by beating Kansas and North Carolina, but the Hoosiers only beat a few NCAA tournament-bound teams besides that as they've been a disaster at times this season.
Just like the Indiana teams of the past few seasons, this team can score and put up a lot of points in a hurry, but this year's team is also 322nd in the country in turnover percentage at 22.4 percent. While giving the ball away way too often, Indiana's defense also continues to be mediocre as it checks in are No. 110 in defensive efficiency.
James Blackmon and Robert Johnson remain a high-scoring backcourt. But the duo has also not shown the leadership Indiana needs after losing Yogi Farrell. Although talented and productive, sophomore Thomas Bryant (12.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg) is still a work-in-progress defensively.
Indiana has played better ball down the stretch with two wins in three games, but it's also facing an Iowa team that is trending upward as the Hawkeyes are trying for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. Iowa was already able to score 96 points earlier this season in a win over Indiana, and it should have no issues scoring more in another win over the Hoosiers in the Big Ten tournament.
9. Illinois
6 of 14
First matchup: No. 8 Michigan (Thursday, 12 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses in first game
Things were looking promising for Illinois (18-13, 8-10) entering the regular-season finale as it had won four consecutive games and was playing its best ball of the season. Then the Illini lost a road game at Rutgers and potentially played themselves out of a NCAA tournament bid.
Now Illinois needs to beat Michigan and potentially beat Purdue to get into the field of 68, so this will be an incredibly important week for the Illini.
The good news is that Illinois seems to have found its ideal rotation down the stretch as senior Malcolm Hill is getting more help. Senior big man Maverick Morgan has blossomed into a solid Big Ten center, and power forward Leron Black is also productive at times.
Since giving more minutes to freshman point guard Te'Jon Lucas, Illinois has looked more comfortable in its offense as it has allowed senior Tracy Abrams to play either off the ball or as a backup point. Sophomore Jalen Coleman-Lands also has intriguing perimeter shooting potential and he can heat up in a hurry.
Illinois also doesn't get any favors by drawing Michigan in the first matchup. The Wolverines and Illini split the season series, but Michigan thoroughly outplayed them in the second game and is playing good ball down the stretch as it's making its own NCAA tournament run. A loss for the Illini means they'll be sweating on Selection Sunday.
8. Michigan
7 of 14
First matchup: No. 9 Illinois (Thursday, 12 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses second game
Ending the season on a positive note is Michigan as the Wolverines have won six of their last eight games entering the Big Ten tournament. With recent wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue during that stretch, Michigan has gone into a position where it should feel safe on Selection Sunday.
The senior duo of Derrick Walton Jr. and Zak Irvin has been very good this season as Walton has been an all-Big Ten player now that he's been more healthy through a full season. Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson have both grown considerably as players since last season, while Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson are solid role players and shooters for John Beilein's offense.
Michigan split the regular-season series with Illinois and looked like the much better team in the second matchup. With the Wolverines playing so well, they should get a crack at No. 1 seed Purdue. Beating Purdue at home when they had a bad defensive game is one thing, but the Boilers are trying to play for a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament and need to make a run of their own.
7. Iowa
8 of 14
First matchup: No. 10 Indiana (Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 2 seed Wisconsin in quarterfinals
Iowa (18-13, 10-8) deserves a lot of credit for winning for consecutive games to put themselves in the bubble conversation heading into the final week of the season. According to Bleacher Report bracketologist Kerry Miller, the Hawkeyes are the third team out, which means they could play their way in with a couple of victories.
Senior Peter Jok has been an all-Big Ten player and one of the nation's premier scorers, while freshman Tyler Cook has developed into a nice second option for the Hawkeyes.
With recent road wins at Maryland and Wisconsin during that four-game winning streak, Iowa has beaten two of the top three seeds on the road entering the Big Ten tournament. As the No. 7 seed, it also means Iowa is on the same side of the bracket as both of those teams.
Iowa put up 96 points in a win over Indiana recently, so the Hawkeyes should advance in the first one. The second game against No. 2 seed Wisconsin is where things get interesting.
The Hawkeyes won thanks to some improved defense and a miserable offensive game from the Badgers, but Wisconsin should be more prepared to face Iowa the second time around.
6. Northwestern
9 of 14
First matchup: No. 11 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Rutgers winner (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 3 seed Maryland in quarterfinals
Northwestern (21-10, 10-8) making the NCAA tournament for the first time is one of the best stories in college basketball this season, but the Wildcats are also entering the Big Ten tournament as losers of six of their last nine games.
While the Wildcats weren't fully healthy during part of that stretch, they still haven't played all that well over the final month of the season. Junior Bryant McIntosh remains one of the Big Ten's premier guards as he had another strong season and he had more help this season. Sophomore Vic Law returned from a shoulder injury to become one of the league's better two-way wings, while junior Scottie Lindsey emerged as the team's new go-to scorer.
Big man Dererk Pardon also gives the Wildcats the type of athleticism on the interior that they've never had before, while the roster is stocked with plenty of good role players like seniors Sanjay Lumpkin and Nathan Taphorn.
A strong defensive team, Northwestern ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and 64th in offensive efficiency, but it can go some stretches without a potent offense.
Northwestern already beat Ohio State on the road this season and should get past the Buckeyes again in the first round, but Maryland isn't an ideal second-round matchup. The Terps beat Northwestern by 10 on the road, and Melo Trimble is a bad matchup for the Wildcat backcourt.
5. Michigan State
10 of 14
First matchup: No. 12 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Penn State winner (Thursday, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win first two games, lose to No. 1 seed Purdue in semifinals
Decimated by injuries and dealing with a very tough schedule for a young team, Michigan State (18-13, 10-8) overcame some adversity to finish fifth in the Big Ten this season. Making the NCAA tournament with this team wasn't always a given for head coach Tom Izzo, but Sparty is playing better and has plenty of talent.
Freshmen are the key for the Spartans as forward Miles Bridges is one of the best newcomers in the nation. Big man Nick Ward has also emerged as a double-double threat, while point guard Cassius Winston and wing Joshua Langford have also grown more comfortable.
Injuries to seniors like Eron Harris, Ben Carter and Gavin Schilling means this roster doesn't have much depth, but it is talented enough to win some games.
The opening round against Penn State would be a revenge game for the Spartans as the Nittany Lions don't have the atmosphere of the Palestra to help them win this time. Michigan State advancing to face No. 4 seed Minnesota means the Spartans will be facing a team that it swept in the regular season.
With Michigan State having an upper hand on the Golden Gophers, it falls in the semifinals to Purdue, which took down the Spartans both times in the regular season.
4. Minnesota
11 of 14
First matchup: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Nebraska/No. 13 Penn State winner (Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses to No. 5 seed Michigan State in quarterfinals
Give Minnesota and head coach Richard Pitino a ton of credit because they've been one of the best turnaround stories in college basketball this season. Going from eight conference wins the last two years combined to 11 this season was a huge story for Minnesota basketball, as it's become a respectable NCAA tournament team.
A winner of eight straight games before a loss to Wisconsin to end the regular season, Minnesota relies a lot on its top-15 defense as center Reggie Lynch is one of the nation's premier shot-blockers. Junior point guard Nate Mason has grown into one of the league's best players, while freshman Amir Coffey has been a nice boost to the lineup as the team's second-leading scorer.
Minnesota has a reason to feel good as they enter the postseason, but it didn't get an ideal draw by having to potentially face No. 5 seed Michigan State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. The Spartans were able to sweep the season series from the Gophers as they won by 18 in the second matchup. This third game should be closer, but Michigan State still gets the edge.
3. Maryland
12 of 14
First matchup: No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 Ohio State/No. 14 Rutgers winner (Friday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 2 seed Wisconsin in semifinals
Maryland (24-7, 12-6) lost four starters from last season's NCAA tournament team, but junior Melo Trimble has still helped this team reach the NCAA tournament thanks to some more remarkable late-game heroics.
One of college basketball's premier clutch players, Trimble has hit numerous buzzer-beaters and clutch shots during his career as he has had help from some talented freshmen for the Terps this season. Freshman forward Justin Jackson has given Maryland athleticism, while guard Anthony Cowan and wing Kevin Huerter have also stepped in and provided scoring.
With so many offensive weapons around Trimble, he's been able to have some big games this season, including a monster outing against potential quarterfinal opponent Northwestern. Since Trimble can get pretty much whatever he wants against the Wildcats, Maryland should move on, but Wisconsin is more of a concern in the semifinals.
Trimble also had a huge game against the Badgers, who did a good job of limiting opportunities for everyone else as they won by double-digits. Wisconsin has the defensive personnel to slow down Maryland outside of Trimble and should be able to do so again—even if Maryland gets a Washington D.C. advantage with a bigger crowd this time.
2. Wisconsin
13 of 14
First matchup: No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Indiana winner (Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Advances to the championship and loses to No. 1 seed Purdue
Losers of five of seven entering the Big Ten tournament, Wisconsin (23-8, 12-6) is struggling a little bit as the postseason begins. Even though this team returns all five starters from last season's Sweet 16 team, the Badgers have struggled at times on offense as star sophomore forward Ethan Happ has faced more double-teams.
When senior Bronson Koenig was out with injury, it exposed how limited Wisconsin can be on offense, as fellow senior Nigel Hayes has also battled some injuries during the season.
But the good news is that Wisconsin seemed to figure things out in the final game of the season as they soundly outplayed Minnesota for a decisive victory.
Beating Iowa in the quarterfinals is going to be tough since the Hawkeyes beat the Badgers recently, but that was one of Wisconsin's worst offensive efforts of the season and it's looked a bit more consistent since then. Wisconsin getting Maryland would be ideal in the semifinals since the Badgers had a good game plan to take away other options besides Melo Trimble.
Purdue might just be too tough of a matchup for Wisconsin in the championship. The Boilers beat the Badgers by double digits at home earlier this season, and big man Caleb Swanigan is the type of bruiser that is tough for Happ to handle alone. Wisconsin should figure itself out a bit more before the NCAAs, but it'll fall short of the tournament title.
1. Purdue
14 of 14
First matchup: No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Illinois winner (Friday, 12 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins the Big Ten title
Winning the Big Ten by two full games is never easy, but Purdue (25-6, 14-4) had a tremendous season behind the All-American effort from sophomore big man Caleb Swanigan.
The Big Ten's best player this season had 25 double-doubles as he became the type of go-to force that you can run an offense through. With Swanigan taking A.J. Hammond's touches in the post, Purdue has received improved perimeter shooting this season as forward Vincent Edwards and guard Dakota Mathias are shooting over 40 percent from three-point range.
Point-guard play has also gotten steadily better as P.J. Thompson and freshman Carsen Edwards will share some ball-handling responsibilities. Center Isaac Haas also gives Purdue another big man who can score and command double-teams as its depth has been solid this season.
Since Purdue is trying very hard to get a top-four seed after the Big Ten was shut out of the NCAA's early look at the bracket in February, it needs to get wins. Purdue lost to potential quarterfinal opponent Michigan, but that was one of the worst defensive efforts the Boilermakers have had all season and they won't come out that flat in this setting.
In the semifinals, Purdue swept potential opponent and No. 5 seed Michigan State during the regular season as the Spartans don't have the bodies to bang inside with Swanigan, Haas and Edwards. Purdue also had a convincing double-digit win over Wisconsin earlier this season as the Badgers are going to have a tough time defending on the interior.
If Purdue can claim the Big Ten tournament, it'll be intriguing to see how the committee seeds a team that claimed both regular-season and tournament titles in a down year.
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