ACC Tournament 2017: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
It's not just the biggest conference in college basketball, with 15 schools, the ACC is also the deepest and quite possibly the best in the country as well. Depending on the projected bracket you look at, the league could see as many as 11 of its members earn bids to the NCAA tournament.
Just how many get in, and how they're seeded, will depend greatly on what happens this week during the ACC tournament at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
Action gets underway with a trio of first-round games on Tuesday and culminates with Saturday night's championship, while in between, there should be no shortage of great contests.
How will it all pan out? We've got our predictions, along with an assessment of each team heading into the tourney and how good a shot they have of making some noise.
No. 15 Boston College Eagles
1 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. Wake Forest (Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose first round
Boston College was picked to finish dead last in the ACC by a considerable margin, so in some respects, the Eagles (9-22, 2-16) met expectations this season. Yet 2016-17 was a slight improvement over the previous year, when BC went winless in league play and lost 25 games.
The Eagles beat Syracuse and North Carolina State at home in January but enter the ACC tournament on a 14-game losing streak, falling by an average of 13.6 points. That includes a five-point home loss to Wake Forest, by whom they were swept during the regular season.
BC's defense has been porous all year, allowing 77.9 points for the season and 82.5 per game in league play. And its best scorer, sophomore guard Jerome Robinson, is averaging 18.6 points per game but enters the tourney on a downswing with just 18 points on 7-of-21 shooting in his last two games.
No. 14 Pittsburgh Panthers
2 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. Georgia Tech (Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose first round
Pitt fans weren't too sad to see Jamie Dixon leave for the TCU job in the offseason, but now they might be singing a different tune. The Panthers (15-16, 4-14) posted their worst record since joining the ACC in 2013-14, and unless they get hot, they'll finish with their first losing record since 1999-2000 back when Ben Howland was in charge.
Despite having a veteran starting lineup that includes two of the top scorers in the league—senior forward Michael Young ranks second in the ACC at 19.9 points per game while senior wing Jamel Artis was sixth at 18.4 per game—the dropoff after that duo was significant. That pair attempted nearly 49 percent of Pitt's field goals while the rest of the Panthers shot only 42.3 percent.
Pitt's current four-game skid includes a 61-52 loss at Georgia Tech on Feb. 28 in which it shot 37.7 percent, the fourth straight game and 11th time this season it failed to shoot at least 40 percent.
No. 13 North Carolina State Wolfpack
3 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. Clemson (Tuesday, noon ET)
Prediction: Reach second round
North Carolina State (15-16, 4-14) might be the biggest disappointment in the ACC this season, particularly considering the talent coach Mark Gottfried had at his disposal.
Freshman point guard Dennis Smith is projected by DraftExpress as a lottery pick, and 7-footer Omer Yurtseven came over from Turkey with plenty of hype. But more often than not, the Wolfpack didn't make the most of their abilities.
Their four ACC wins include victories at Duke and Georgia Tech and an early 26-point triumph over Virginia Tech, but they also lost at last-place Boston College, and since beating Duke on Jan. 23, they are 1-9.
Smith has been fun to watch in averaging 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists while posting a pair of triple-doubles, but NC State rarely took advantage of his play.
And no one on the roster put much effort into defense, with the Wolfpack giving up a league-worst 84.6 points per game in ACC play to rank in the bottom 30 nationally in defensive rating.
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No. 12 Clemson Tigers
4 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. North Carolina State (Tuesday, noon ET)
Prediction: Lose in first round
When playmaker Jaron Blossomgame opted to bypass the NBA draft and return for his senior year, it was considered a major boon for Clemson. Combine that with the addition of three impact transfers and the Tigers (16-14, 6-12) looked to have a good shot at making their first NCAA tournament since 2011.
An 11-2 start to this season (including a win at rival South Carolina) furthered that hope, but then came a six-game skid in January that all but eliminated any hope of Clemson getting to the NCAA tourney without winning the ACC tournament.
The Tigers only had four league wins entering the final week of the regular season, winning their final two against fellow bottom feeders North Carolina State and Boston College.
The 78-74 NC State victory was Clemson's fourth in 13 tries in games decided by six or fewer points but first since Dec. 31.
Blossomgame's inability to hit perimeter shots was key to the inability to win close games, as the 6'7” forward made only 33.3 percent of his three-pointers in ACC games compared to 45.7 percent in 2015-16.
No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
5 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. Pittsburgh (Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Reach second round
Josh Pastner inherited a pretty bare cupboard at Georgia Tech when he came over from Memphis to replace the fired Brian Gregory last spring. This prompted many to predict the Yellow Jackets would challenge for the bottom of the ACC standings, possibly flirting with a winless league record like Boston College had the year before.
"Yellow Jackets won't win a game in ACC play this season," CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein tweeted in October.
So much for that prediction. Tech (17-14, 8-10) not only avoided the basement, but also won its most ACC games since 2006-07, and it's on the bubble for its first NCAA tournament bid since 2010.
That's due to four wins over top-50 RPI teams including home upsets of the league's top three tourney seeds in North Carolina, Florida State and Notre Dame.
An emphasis on defense has made up for a lack of offensive playmakers, with Tech allowing 67.3 points per game while scoring only 67.
The Jackets have also gotten major contributions from unexpected stars like freshman guard Josh Okogie (15.5 points per game) and junior center Ben Lammers (14.6 points, 9.2 rebounds per game).
No. 10 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. Boston College (Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Reach quarterfinals
A three-game win streak to end the regular season didn't enable Wake Forest (18-12, 9-9) to climb much in the ACC standings, as the Demon Deacons will be playing in the opening round for the seventh year in a row.
But those victories did put them in the hunt for their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2010 as well as a dark horse to make a deep run this week.
Wake won 89-84 at Virginia Tech on Saturday, and it would face the Hokies in the second round assuming a win over last-place Boston College. That was the Deacons' third ACC road win this season after having gone three years without a league road victory.
That game saw sophomore guard Bryant Crawford go for 26 points while sophomore forward John Collins had 13 points and nine rebounds. Collins is an ACC player of the year contender after averaging 19.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting 62.3 percent.
Wake has the third-most efficient offense in the ACC, behind North Carolina and Duke, but it has been hamstrung by poor defense. The win at Virginia Tech was only its fourth in 15 games in which its opponent shot 46 percent or better.
No. 9 Miami (Florida) Hurricanes
7 of 15
First matchup: First round vs. Syracuse (Wednesday, noon ET)
Prediction: Reach quarterfinals
Miami (20-10, 10-8) is almost assured of a second straight NCAA tourney appearance thanks to a strong RPI and wins over Duke, North Carolina and Virginia.
But the Hurricanes dropped their final two games at Virginia Tech and Florida State to finish outside the top six in the ACC for the first since since 2013-14.
The Hurricanes have relied on a methodical pace that allows for an average of 65.1 possessions per 40 minutes, tied for 16th-slowest in the country and second-slowest in the ACC behind Virginia. But a 44.6 percent shooting rate in league play ranked 12th, and their adjusted offensive rating of 111.6 was third-worst.
Senior guard Davon Reed has been the most consistent force for Miami, averaging 15.3 points per game while shooting 40.3 percent on three-pointers, but junior guard Ja'Quan Newton has been up and down all year.
He was suspended for three games in February for violating team rules, with Miami going 3-0 in his absence, but since his return, he's averaged 4.7 points per game on 22.7 percent shooting.
No. 8 Syracuse Orange
8 of 15
First matchup: Second round vs. Miami (Wednesday, noon ET)
Prediction: Lose in second round
Syracuse (18-13, 10-8) finds itself in a very similar situation from a year ago, entering the ACC tournament on the bubble for the NCAA tourney. Last season the Orange dropped its first game yet still got a bid and ended up being the first No. 10 seed to make the Final Four.
Falling in its ACC tournament opener again might not be the best idea, since Syracuse has an RPI in the 80s and has lost four of its last six. The two wins in that span were at home against Duke and Georgia Tech, making it 16-3 at the Carrier Dome and 2-10 everywhere else.
Syracuse is scoring at its highest rate since 2009-10, but the trade-off has been a significant drop in defensive prowess. Its patented zone defense isn't thwarting opponents as much as in the past, with the Orange sitting ninth in the league in adjusted defensive rating.
The Orange shot 56.8 percent to beat Miami in early January, but since then strong defensive teams have slowed it down. It shot 35.7 percent apiece in recent losses at Georgia Tech and Louisville.
No. 7 Virginia Tech Hokies
9 of 15
First matchup: Second round vs. BC/Wake Forest winner (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose in second round
Buzz Williams' rebuilding job at Virginia Tech is near-complete, with the Hokies (21-9, 10-8) on the cusp of its first NCAA tournament bid since 2007 thanks to reaching double-digits in conference wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since the 1960s. Their performance in the ACC made up for one of the weakest nonconference schedules in the country.
Losing at home to Wake Forest on Saturday stunted Virginia Tech's late-season momentum, though, as it yielded 52.9 percent shooting and 89 points. The Hokies are near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories, with three of their last five opponents shooting 50 percent or better.
That just means Tech has to stay strong on the offensive end, which hasn't been a problem much of the season. It ranks 10th nationally in shooting, at 49.2 percent, and 11th from three-point range at 40.5 percent.
The Hokies have five players averaging double figures, led by senior forward Zach LeDay's 15.6 points per game, but they've also had 23 players score at least 20 points against them this season.
No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers
10 of 15
First matchup: Second round vs. Pitt/GT winner (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Reach quarterfinals
It's been an uneven year for Virginia, with the tie for fifth place in the ACC its worst since Tony Bennett's second season in 2010-11. Some of that is a product of the rest of the league starting to solve the defense the Cavaliers (21-9, 11-7) are best known for, but it's also because the Cavs haven't been nearly as effective with the ball in their hands.
Virginia is shooting 44.5 percent, third-worst in the league, despite having the second-best three-point rate at 39.6 percent. Less than one-third of its shots come from behind the line, with only senior guard London Perrantes and freshman guard Kyle Guy attempting more than three triples per game.
A lack of inside presence on offense has been evident, as junior forward Isaiah Wilkins' 7.1 points per game the best among frontcourt players. Those interior guys remain tough on defense, though, as the Cavs hold opponents to 39.1 percent shooting and force turnovers on more than 19 percent of possessions.
Perrantes is coming off a 22-point performance on Saturday, his fifth 20-point game of the season. Virginia is 4-1 when he scores that many, while it is 3-3 when he scores six or fewer.
No. 5 Duke Blue Devils
11 of 15
First matchup: Second round vs. NC State/Clemson winner (Wednesday, noon ET)
Prediction: Reach semifinals
Saturday's loss at rival North Carolina kept Duke (23-8, 11-7) from getting the No. 4 seed and a double-bye to the quarterfinals. Having to play that extra game was a bigger issue last season when the Blue Devils were dealing with major depth issues, while this time around another opportunity to work out the kinks could be welcome.
Duke lost three of four to close out the regular season, each on the road and each by seven or fewer points. Two of those setbacks saw the Blue Devils get torched in the paint, as Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller noted that seven of their eight losses they have "allowed their opponents to shoot at least 52.5 percent from inside the arc."
That includes giving up 56.1 percent on twos when it lost at home to North Carolina State, who we're projecting Duke will face in its ACC tournament opener, and 52.5 on twos in a road loss the Louisville team it would meet in the quarterfinals.
Duke's ACC tourney hopes rest on being as explosive as possible on offense, which means getting strong perimeter shooting. The Blue Devils shot 38.9 percent from three in league play, which ranked third-best, but six of their seven ACC losses came when failing to make at least 38 percent of their threes.
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals
12 of 15
First matchup: Quarterfinals vs. Duke-North Carolina State/Clemson winner (Thursday, 2 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose in quarterfinals
At several times this season Louisville (24-7, 12-6) had the look of a team on the cusp of taking its game to the next level and being not the one to beat in the ACC but also a strong Final Four contender. That's evident in the Cardinals sitting third in the RPI thanks to a strong record against the toughest schedule in the country.
However, as impressive as their seven wins over top-50 teams are, that's tempered by an equal number of top-50 losses. Beating Notre Dame in their regular-season finale prevented the Cardinals from having a losing record against those top opponents.
Lockdown defense has been Louisville's staple all season, holding opponents to 65.4 points per game and 39.4 percent shooting, and in many games, it's had to lean on that facet to make up for inconsistent offense.
The Cardinals were third in the ACC in field goal percentage at 46.6 percent, yet they turned it over 56 times in their final four games (going 2-2 in that span).
Louisville's X-factor is sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell, who averaged 18.1 points per game in the ACC and has 20 or more in four of his last five. In the other he fouled out with seven points on 2-of-9 shooting in a loss at Wake Forest.
No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
13 of 15
First matchup: Quarterfinals vs. Virginia-Pitt/GT winner (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Reach championship game
Notre Dame (23-8, 12-6) had a six-game win streak snapped when it fell at Louisville in Saturday's regular-season finale. That run was a bit misleading, though, since it included two wins over last-place Boston College and only one notable triumph, that being a 12-point victory over potential semifinal foe Florida State.
The Fighting Irish have had 18 of their games decided by 10 points or fewer, with many of their wins owed to one key factor: foul shooting. Notre Dame leads the nation at 80.9 percent, with four starters shooting 80 percent or better from the line, and though it doesn't get fouled that often, it has five games this season in which it shot 87 percent or better while making 20 or more free throws.
If only Notre Dame could be as strong across the board on the boards. Despite junior forward Bonzie Colson leading the league with 10.4 rebounds per game, it has been outrebounded 17 times, going 2-8 in games when the opponent grabs more than 57 percent of missed shots.
Notre Dame won the rebounding battle the last time it played Florida State, a game it made 19-of-21 free throws.
No. 2 Florida State Seminoles
14 of 15
First matchup: Quarterfinals vs. Virginia Tech-BC/Wake winner (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Lose in semifinals
It's been a breakout year for Florida State, one that's not just going to include the program's first NCAA tournament appearance since 2012, but also possibly its best seeding ever.
The Seminoles (24-7, 12-6) were seeded third in 2012 as well as 1992 and 1993, and with a strong performance in the ACC tourney, they could be in line for a No. 2.
But that's assuming FSU can overcome one of its biggest hurdles, that being the ability to play well outside of Tallahassee. The 'Noles are 6-7 in road or neutral-site games, including 3-6 on the road in ACC play, shooting 42.4 percent in league road games compared to 51 percent everywhere else.
FSU is much-improved on the defensive end, too, allowing 41.1 percent shooting and 71.2 points per game compared to 44.2/74.0 a year ago, but all nine of its road opponents shot better than 42 percent.
Sophomore guard Dwayne Bacon has matched the numbers he put up a season ago, while freshman forward Jonathan Isaac is the team's leading rebounder and shot blocker and the second-best three-point shooter among rotation players.
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
15 of 15
First matchup: Quarterfinals vs. Miami/Syracuse winner (Thursday, noon ET)
Prediction: Win championship
North Carolina (26-6, 14-4) is the defending ACC regular-season and conference tournament champion and is in great position to repeat that double again. The Tar Heels head to Brooklyn having won five of six, the only loss an offensive stinker at Virginia on Feb. 27, but they wouldn't see the sixth-seeded Cavaliers until the title game.
The Heels' toughest game could come in the semifinals against Duke, though beating the Blue Devils by seven on Saturday in the regular-season finale provided a blueprint to do so again. UNC won the rebounding battle in that game, something it's managed to do in all but four contests in 2016-17 en route to leading the nation in rebounding percentage (58.7).
A key to dominating on the boards is making sure senior forwards Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks stay on the court. The duo combine to register 24.4 points and 14.7 rebounds in 47 minutes per game, but each is susceptible to foul trouble, particularly Hicks. He commits 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes, has fouled out four times and had at least four fouls 13 times, averaging 8.3 points and 4.8 rebounds in those games while going for 14.5 points and 6.2 rebounds otherwise.
Combine that with the strong perimeter shooting of junior guard Joel Berry (42.6 percent) and junior forward Justin Jackson (38.5) and UNC has that much-coveted blend of inside and outside scoring. Few opponents have been able to thwart both ends of that.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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