2017 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Round 1's Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

Workouts for offensive and defensive players will begin on Friday at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Boom-or-bust prospects could either surge or drop on draft boards depending on their performances over the next few days.

For a quarterback whose draft projection fluctuates, such as North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, small details may help or hurt draft placement. He may walk across the stage at Philadelphia City Hall as the No. 1 overall pick or a late first-round selection. As a potential franchise signal-caller, personnel scouts and executives will heavily scrutinize his combine results. 

As a prospect with a multi-faceted skill set, Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers finds himself in a unique situation. During his junior season, he put together a productive year as a linebacker. However, at 6’1”, 205 pounds, teams will question his size at the same position in the pros. San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch sees Peppers’ talent but doesn’t have the slightest clue where he fits in the league via NFL.com writer Chase Goodbread:

Oftentimes, a high ceiling for a prospective career trumps periodic lackluster play on the collegiate level. Certain players need incentives to perform at their highest potential. It’s evident in the pros when you see breakout seasons during contract years. Some college athletes take a year off along the way and coast into the draft.

Michigan State’s Malik McDowell looks the part of a pass-rushing interior lineman, but his collegiate numbers show otherwise. Is he saving the best for paid work? Does he lack the passion for the game? Scouts will likely dig for more on his character through interviews, but the workouts will show his natural talent.

Where do these boom-or-bust prospects, discussed above, land in the draft?

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Cleveland Browns	Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
2	San Francisco 49ers	Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
3	Chicago Bears	DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
5	Tennessee Titans (via Rams)	Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
6	New York Jets	Jamal Adams, S, LSU
7	Los Angeles Chargers	Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
8	Carolina Panthers	Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
9	Cincinnati Bengals	Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt
10	Buffalo Bills	Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
11	New Orleans Saints	Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama
12	Cleveland Browns (via Eagles)	Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
13	Arizona Cardinals	Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
14	Indianapolis Colts	Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
15	Philadelphia Eagles (via Vikings)	Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
16	Baltimore Ravens	Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
17	Washington Redskins	John Ross, WR, Washington
18	Tennessee Titans	Teez Tabor, CB, Florida
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State
20	Denver Broncos	Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
21	Detroit Lions	Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida
22	Miami Dolphins	Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
23	New York Giants	Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
24	Oakland Raiders	Desmond King, CB, Iowa
25	Houston Texans	Caleb Brantley, DL, Florida
26	Seattle Seahawks	Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
27	Kansas City Chiefs	Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
28	Dallas Cowboys	Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan
29	Green Bay Packers	Tim Williams, LB/DE, Alabama
30	Pittsburgh Steelers	Takkarist McKinley, LB, UCLA
31	Atlanta Falcons	Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State
32	New England Patriots	Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

Kyle Shanahan Starts New Era with Mitch Trubisky

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The 49ers open with a clean slate and likely a new quarterback under center. Head coach Kyle Shanahan fell short in Super Bowl 51 against the New England Patriots, but his outstanding work with Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan over the past two seasons can’t be negated. He’s one of the young innovative offensive minds among coaches in the league.

Shanahan will have the opportunity to sculpt and mold Trubisky into a prototypical pocket passer with functional mobility. The North Carolina prospect only started one full year under center on the collegiate level, which may turn off quarterback-needy teams looking for an NFL-ready rookie field general.

Fortunately, owner Jed York signed off on six-year deals for his general manager-head coach tandem in Lynch and Shanahan. In San Francisco, Trubisky will have enough time to take the field, scrape his knee, dust himself off and play through the rough patches. He’ll also take cues from a coach who helped build an offensive juggernaut in Atlanta. 

Before the combine started, questions about Trubisky's height surfaced as an issue; most teams like a taller quarterback, who can see over the offensive line. Official height measurements put those concerns to rest, which checked a box for Lynch, via KNBR writer Kevin Jones: 

The 49ers will probably sign a veteran quarterback during free agency, but the lack of pressure on the team to deliver right away opens the door for a developing passer to start as a rookie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pair Malik McDowell with Gerald McCoy 

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished with 38 sacks during the 2016 season. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith hit the right buttons with his group to push Tampa Bay into a late playoff race for an NFC wild-card spot. Unfortunately, the team fell short at 9-7, losing a tiebreaker to the Detroit Lions for the No. 6 seed. Another playmaker on the defensive line could mirror the New York Giants' rise to the postseason. 

The Giants fortified their four-man front, which gave them a legitimate opportunity to win every game last year. The Buccaneers have a question mark at running back due to Doug Martin’s drug policy violation, but quarterback Jameis Winston continues to push his game with wideout Mike Evans and emerging tight end Cameron Brate.

The decision to pair McDowell with Gerald McCoy at defensive tackle between edge-rushers Robert Ayers and Noah Spence could become the final piece to one of the best defensive lines in the game. Despite McDowell’s unimpressive junior season, he flashed at times on the field, per Pro Football Focus’ Mike Renner:

McDowell will enter the league at 20 years old, turning 21 in June. His physical traits and periodic flashes of dominance on film could see him become a monster with good coaching. He’s a risky selection at No. 19 but has the ability to significantly upgrade the Buccaneers defense.

Dallas Cowboys Roll the Dice on Hybrid Defender

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Throw away the safe pick when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys. Over the past two years, they’ve ignored conventional warnings that most analysts cautioned teams about prior to the draft.

In 2015, the front office selected defensive end Randy Gregory despite red flags. Unfortunately, he’s played 14 games in two seasons because he’s constantly at odds with the league’s drug policy. In the following year, the Cowboys chose Ezekiel Elliott at No. 4, which made placing a high draft premium on running backs trendy again. The front office selected linebacker Jaylon Smith, who suffered nerve damage in his knee a few months before the draft, in the second round.

Dallas’ past history indicates a potential unconventional or flashy pick at No. 28. ESPN.com reporter Todd Archer expects the team to re-sign safety Barry Church. However, it’s simply a hunch about the Cowboys' priorities. 

Lucky Whitehead ranks as a decent kick returner, but Peppers’ skill is electric on special teams in the open field. 

At a cheaper price with a multi-faceted skill set, which includes running the ball on gadget plays, the Cowboys can acquire a unique player at the tail end of the draft. First and foremost, he'll likely take on a role at safety lining up near the line of scrimmage. The Michigan product would add a decent push in pocket pressure as a disguised blitzer.

Stats provided by Sports-Reference.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.