The Biggest X-Factors for Teams on the 2017 NCAA Tournament Bubble
The 2017 NCAA Tournament is rapidly approaching, and the bubble is starting to come more into focus.
While these bubble teams have been examined by every computer metric possible in weighing their tournament case, they still have to play a handful of games before Selection Sunday.
We used the last five in and last five out in Bleacher Report bracketologist Kerry Miller's most recent NCAA Tournament projection and looked at what each team might need to do to make it over the hump and get in the final field of 68.
With the season coming down to the final week of the regular season before conference tournaments begin, here's a look at some X-factors for bubble teams.
Some of these factors are individual players, while, in some cases, it comes down to something as simple as getting stops or winning away from home.
Georgia Tech
1 of 10
Winning away from home
Georgia Tech have been one of the pleasant surprises of college basketball this season, but they find themselves hanging on by a thread when it comes to the bubble.
The Yellow Jackets are a respectable 16-13 with an 8-9 record in the ACC, but they're also only 2-9 away from home this season. Fortunately for Georgia Tech, they celebrated senior night on Tuesday with a win over Pitt.
With only a road game at Syracuse followed by the ACC tournament before the postseason begins, the Yellow Jackets have to show they can win away from home and get things done against good teams.
Georgia Tech haven't won away from home since taking N.C. State down on Jan. 15, so they better figure things out quickly if they want to make the NCAA tournament.
Even if the Yellow Jackets take down Syracuse and win a game or two in the ACC tournament, it might not be enough to get by.
TCU
2 of 10
Consistent offense
TCU looked like it was in great shape to make the NCAA tournament before a recent five-game losing streak in the Big 12 put it in a tough spot on the bubble.
In his first year at the helm, head coach Jamie Dixon has done a nice job of putting a good offensive system in place behind Vladimir Brodziansky and guards Alex Robinson and Jaylen Fisher. Lately, that offense has started to sputter.
The Horned Frogs are averaging just over 73 points a game on the season, but they haven't reached that total once during the five-game losing streak as they've been plagued by multiple issues.
Two of the losses featured a sky-high number of turnovers, while two others were aided by sub-28 percent three-point shooting.
Brodziansky has also seen his offensive diminish as he's averaging 9.6 points per game over his last five games and is down to 13.5 points per game.
Rhode Island
3 of 10
Kuran Iverson
The senior forward is an important fourth cog in the Rhode Island rotation as Kuran Iverson's play has been wildly inconsistent this season.
A top three of E.C. Matthews, Hassan Martin and Jared Terrell can usually get it done between the three of them with some help from Iverson, but the senior hasn't been producing on a consistent level lately.
Over the last seven games, Iverson has a 20-point game and is averaging 5.1 points per game over the other six games. He's been good enough to have 20-point games and even contributed 23 rebounds in one game earlier this year but the 23-year-old has also been held scoreless while playing at least 13 minutes twice this season.
If Iverson comes to play and can chip in some scoring, then he will give the Rams a huge lift down the stretch. Since Matthews is coming off of his first full season from a torn ACL, he hasn't played over 30 minutes in his last five games, so others need to chip in a bit more down the stretch run if Rhode Island wants to return to the Big Dance.
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Illinois
4 of 10
Te'Jon Lucas
The emergence of freshman point guard Te'Jon Lucas has helped rally Illinois this season, as he's given the offense a new spark plug.
Playing more minutes over the month, Lucas has grown more comfortable with a bigger role handling the Illinois offense.
Since Lucas can operate pick-and-rolls and also get in the paint as a ball-handler, it has allowed for more easy buckets for Illinois big men and space for shooters like Malcolm Hill.
Veteran senior guard Tracy Abrams can also slide to a shooter role and still be on the floor as an additional ball-handler and defender in some lineups.
Illinois hasn't had the most consistent offense this season, but Lucas has given them a nice lift with his recent play.
USC
5 of 10
Jordan McLaughlin
The key for USC's season could be getting its talented junior point guard back on track after a recent slow stretch that has also seen the Trojans lose four consecutive games.
Playing the Pac-12's three best teams all in a row in Oregon, UCLA and Arizona didn't help but Jordan McLaughlin's struggles go back even longer.
Over his last six games, McLaughlin is only putting up 7.6 points per game on 37 percent shooting—way below his season averages of 12.6 points on 45 percent shooting.
If McLaughlin played poorly on last season's USC team, he had a second point guard in Julian Jacobs to help pick up the slack as a playmaker. Talented two-way freshman De'Anthony Melton has done a great job of stepping into that spot in the Trojan rotation, but he isn't quite as a talented on offense while also still being a freshman.
Even with leading scorer Bennie Boatwright back, USC haven't quite figured things out on offense yet. McLaughlin finding his own offense would be a nice start.
California
6 of 10
Charlie Moore
Playing big minutes at point as a true freshman, the 5'11" Charlie Moore deserves a ton of credit for helping the Golden Bears to be in a position to possibly make the NCAA tournament.
But playing just under a shade of 30 minutes per game in his first season of college basketball also means Moore could be hitting the wall.
The last few games have been a struggle offensively for Moore as he's seen his once-reliable three-point shoot nearly abandon him completely the last few weeks.
Over the last four games—three of them losses—Moore is shooting 25 percent (8-for-31) from the field and missed 10 consecutive three-pointers before finally making the 11th to go 1-for-11 in that same span.
As the engine that makes Cal's offense go, Moore has to continue to play through this funk since California doesn't have that many scoring options.
Jabari Bird and Ivan Rabb are obviously the top two options, but Moore needs to knock down perimeter shots to prevent defenses collapsing on Rabb, and Moore's ability to drive also opens up look for three-point specialist Grant Mullins.
Syracuse
7 of 10
Depth
With losses in four of the last five games, Syracuse is fading quickly down the stretch as head coach Jim Boeheim is riding some of his starters for the entire game.
Three starters in particular—seniors Andrew White and John Gillon, and sophomore Tyler Lydon—are playing nearly every minute of every game down the stretch. Back-to-back games in the ACC tournament could mean a lot of tired legs for the Orange if they don't start getting more from the bench.
After being a key interior player and rebounder last season, senior Tyler Roberson has been relatively quiet lately as freshman Taurean Thompson has significantly outplayed him in the frontcourt rotation. Sophomore guard Frank Howard also hasn't been much of a factor recently.
These are just some examples of players who could step up in the final few games before the postseason.
Wake Forest
8 of 10
Defense
Wake Forest has become relevant in the ACC this season thanks to a tremendous offense that ranks No. 8 in offensive efficiency on KenPom.com.
With consistent double-double threat John Collins being one of the best big men in college basketball, the Demon Deacons have found great looks all over the floor, as potentially up to six players will make at least 75 three-pointers this season.
But for as good as Wake Forest's offense is, this team struggles mightily at times to get stops in big games. The Demon Deacons play at a decent pace (No. 66 adjusted tempo, per KenPom) but they've lost to elite teams by not being able to stay with other offenses. Duke, Clemson, Villanova and North Carolina have all hung 90-plus on Wake Forest with plenty of others scoring well into the 80s.
When Wake Forest plays even a bit of solid defense, they have a great chance to win since their offense is so strong. But they haven't shown a consistent ability to defend either as individuals or as a team all season.
One thing to watch with Wake Forest is forcing turnovers. The Demon Deacons are No. 301 in the nation in defensive turnover percentage on Sports Reference, so if they're able to make some plays in passing lanes, it's a good sign.
Marquette
9 of 10
Markus Howard
Other freshmen might be getting more attention because they are better pro prospects, but Marquette freshman guard Markus Howard has delivered some of the best individual performances of any newcomer this season.
The 5'11" player doesn't have great vertical athleticism, but he makes up for it with savvy and deadly accuracy from three-point range as he is 55 percent from there on the season—good for No. 1 in the country.
Howard might be Marquette's leading scorer at 12.9 points per game, but he's also had a lot of recent peaks and valleys with his play.
The last four games are a perfect example of this season for Howard. The freshman scored three points in each of two games while going off for 34 and 24 points each in the other two games.
If Howard avoids foul trouble on the defensive end, then he should get enough shots to can multiple three-pointers. And with his ability to fire the deep ball, he has the potential to easily put up double-figures and pace the Marquette offense.
Vanderbilt
10 of 10
Jeff Roberson
Vanderbilt has put together enough recent wins to be in the NCAA tournament conversation, and junior forward Jeff Roberson could be the key to this team making it down the stretch.
The 6'6" player was putting together a strong Southeastern Conference season with eight games in double figures out of nine, but he's gone on a bit of a cold spell lately.
Roberson only has double-figure points in two of his last six games as he only attempted one field goal in 25 minutes during one win against South Carolina.
If Roberson can be counted on to produce points, then Vanderbilt's offense becomes even deeper because they have plenty of shooters and a talented big man in Luke Kornet.
Even though Roberson has been so-so lately, the Commodores have continued to win most of their games, so it is an encouraging sign if he does consistently bring it in the final few games.
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