Best Teams That Could Miss March Madness If They Don't Win Conference Tournament
Some quality teams know they cannot get into the NCAA tournament without winning their conference tournament, while some other good teams fear that is the case.
These teams fall into two categories. The first is for those teams from one-bid conferences, where the conference tournament champion—which gets an automatic bid—traditionally gets that league's only NCAA tournament berth.
The second category is made up of teams from major conferences who are so far down in the standings that even a win or two in the conference tournament won't be enough to get them to the Big Dance. They need the automatic berth that a conference tournament champion receives.
Teams such as Illinois, Kansas State, California and number of others are not included because they have worked themselves into a situation where they probably can get at-large bids if they win some games in their conference tournament yet fail to win it. As a result, only a handful of teams from major conferences have made our list.
One team noticeably absent is Middle Tennessee. This is because we are fairly confident the Blue Raiders will get an at-large bid if they do not win the Conference USA tournament. However, you can never be sure what the selection committee will do.
So here is our ranking of the best 15 teams that probably need to win their conference tournament to play a part in March Madness.
15. Vermont
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Vermont is 27-5 overall, won the America East regular-season title by four games and has the longest active winning streak in the country at 19 in a row.
Four of its five defeats were completely understandable—road losses to Providence, South Carolina and Butler, and a one-point neutral-court loss to Houston, which won on a shot at the buzzer.
The only defeat that raises questions is the two-point home loss to Northeastern. But the Catamounts seemed to have that game in hand, holding a 10-point lead with 11 minutes left, before letting it slip away.
That is Vermont's only loss to a team ranked outside the RPI top 55.
You may recall that 13th-seeded Vermont eliminated No. 4 seed Syracuse in the first round of the 2005 NCAA tournament, giving the Catamounts and the American East Conference a little credibility.
Despite all that, there is almost no chance Vermont will get into the NCAA tournament unless it wins the conference tournament.
The reason is simple. Although the Catamounts have only one bad loss, they don't have any quality wins—not a single victory over a team ranked among the RPI top 120.
We know the team is pretty good, but just how good remains a question the selection committee may have to answer, unless Vermont wins the conference tournament.
14. Princeton
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Princeton has won 15 straight games and will finish with a 14-0 Ivy League record if it wins its final two regular-season games, at home against Harvard and Dartmouth. It would be the first time since 2008 that a team finished unbeaten in Ivy League play.
Winning either game will give Princeton the regular-season title, which in past years, would have given the Tigers a berth in the NCAA tournament and a chance to trip up some unsuspecting high seed.
But this season is different. For the first time, the Ivy League will hold a conference tournament, with the winner of that four-team event getting the conference's automatic bid.
The Tigers have already qualified for that by finishing in the top four, but if they don't win it, they won't be included in March Madness.
Princeton has no wins over an RPI top-50 team and only one over a top-100 squad, Bucknell. And the loss to Lehigh will rear its ugly head when the selection committee glances at its resume.
Even though Dartmouth has played in two NCAA tournament championship games, and Penn and Princeton have both been to the Final Four, the Ivy League has never had more than one team in the NCAA tournament. That won't change this season.
13. Brigham Young
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Brigham Young accomplished something Florida failed to do, something Arizona could not get done, something Iowa State could not achieve, and something Saint Mary's was unable to do in two opportunities.
BYU beat Gonzaga this season, and no one else—including the four teams mentioned above—could. Not only that, but the Cougars beat Gonzaga on the Bulldogs' home court, where it had won 21 games in a row.
The Cougars also accomplished this feat without point guard L.J. Rose, who missed the final six regular-season games with a knee injury.
Gonzaga, which finished first in the West Coast Conference, is seeking a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Second-place Saint Mary's seems to be safely in as well, with a seeding that ranges from sixth to eighth in the three tournament projections.
It suggests that a third-place team like BYU might be in the running for an at-large bid, considering it recorded one of the biggest wins of the season just a week ago.
Alas, that's not the case. Not with an RPI ranking of 68 and a BPI ranking of 70. Not with three losses to teams outside the RPI top 150. Not with just that one win over a team in the RPI top 50.
The win over Gonzaga in the final regular-season game leaves the impression that BYU is on the rise and has the talent to do some damage in the WCC tournament. But the Cougars probably will need to beat Saint Mary's—which swept both games from BYU—and Gonzaga in consecutive games to win the WCC tournament and claim an NCAA bid.
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12. North Carolina-Wilmington
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North Carolina-Wilmington will be a scary adversary if it gets into the NCAA tournament. The Seahawks gave Duke a postseason scare last year before losing, and they are better this season.
They return their top two scorers from last year's team—Chris Flemmings and Denzel Ingram—as well as C.J. Bryce, who is their top scorer this season.
UNC-Wilmington has a favorable RPI ranking of 38 and its 26-5 record certainly looks good on the page.
The Seahawks look like a good team when you watch them, but they have no hard evidence to prove it to the selection committee. They played just one RPI Top 50 team this season, and they lost that one to Middle Tennessee. UNC-Wilmington's best win was against Charleston, and the Seahawks split its two games with the Cougars during Colonial Athletic Association play.
Consider the fact that UNC-Wilmington has two losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100 (Elon, William & Mary) and you can see why the numbers don't add up favorably for the Seahawks.
UNC-Wilmington is listed as a No. 12 seed in all three NCAA tournament projections, and that means one thing: Win your conference tournament or you're out.
11. Alabama
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Avery Johnson has made progress in his two seasons as Alabama head coach. The Crimson Tide have already assured themselves of a winning conference record with one regular-season game left, and they could finish as high as tied for fourth in the Southeastern Conference standings.
That is not likely to get Alabama into the NCAA tournament, though, not with an RPI ranking of 84.
The Tide's resume is not bad and includes three wins over RPI Top 50 teams, highlighted by a road victory over South Carolina. They lack a win over a Top 25 RPI team and own two losses to Auburn and another to Texas, leaving Alabama in a bad position.
Based on those numbers, it would seem the Tide might sneak in as an at-large selection if they claim one good win in the Southeastern Conference tournament or get to the conference tournament finals.
But we take our cue from the people who are paid to know about these things, and their assessments suggest the Tide may have to win the SEC tournament to participate in March Madness.
None of the three tournament projections we cite has Alabama close to the bubble at the moment. USA Today is the only one that even mentions Alabama, putting it in the "on life support" category, otherwise known as the "you better win the conference tournament" group.
10. Nevada
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Nevada hosts Colorado State on Saturday in a game that will determine the Mountain West Conference regular-season champion. In years past, both those teams would feel pretty confident they would get NCAA tournament berths regardless of how they fared in the conference tournament.
It was just four years ago that five Mountain West teams participated in March Madness, and four got in in 2012 and 2010. That multi-bid trend ended with a thud last season when, for the first time since 2001, the Mountain West tournament champion got the conference's only bid. San Diego State won the regular-season title by three games, but it lost in the conference tournament and wound up in the NIT.
That is what is facing Nevada this season, despite an impressive 24-6 record and a decent ranking in the RPI (42nd) and BPI (44th).
The problem is that the Wolf Pack have no good wins. Their best victories are the two wins over Boise State, which has an RPI of 68. Nevada had a chance for an impressive win in its season-opener against Saint Mary's but lost by 18 points.
The Wolf Pack got national attention with their amazing win at New Mexico. Nevada trailed in that game by 25 points with less than 11 minutes left, by 19 with 4:27 remaining, by 14 with 1:29 to go and by 11 with a New Mexico player at the foul line with 59 seconds left. They won 105-104 in overtime.
Unfortunately, if Nevada loses in the conference tournament, the selection committee members will be looking less at that game and more at the bad losses to San Diego State and Iona, both of whom are outside the RPI Top 100.
9. Houston
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Houston is third in the American Athletic Conference standings, and although conference records are not part of the selection committee's criteria, it provides an indication of the Cougars' capabilities.
Four AAC teams received berths to the NCAA tournament in both 2014 and 2016, and it might have been five last year if SMU had been eligible for the postseason.
The conference may be limited to two bids this season unless a team other than SMU or Cincinnati wins the conference tournament.
Last year, Houston finished tied for third with Cincinnati and Tulsa, and the Cougars were the only one of the three that did not get an NCAA tournament bid. In fact, Connecticut—which finished a game behind Houston in the AAC standings—got into the NCAA tournament while Houston played in the NIT.
Last season, with SMU not competing, Houston was the No. 2 seed in the American conference tournament, but it lost its first game against No. 10 seed Tulane, putting the Cougars' record at 22-9 and ending their NCAA tournament hopes.
Houston is facing a similar fate this year if it does not win the conference tournament. None of the three projections has Houston on the cusp of getting an at-large berth. ESPN is the most optimistic, putting the Cougars among its "next four out," while USA Today has them in a group labeled "on life support."
Houston's status might change a bit if it upsets Cincinnati on Thursday but probably not enough to usher the Cougars into the NCAA tournament without winning the conference tournament.
The Cougars' BPI of 35 is good enough, but their RPI of 52 raises concerns their resume cannot adequately satisfy. Houston is 0-4 against teams among the RPI Top 40, and its best wins are against Rhode Island and Vermont, the former coming at home, and the latter coming on a basket with one second left that provided a one-point victory.
More problematic for the Cougars is that they also have three losses to teams ranked outside the RPI Top 100.
Even if Houston knocks off SMU or Cincinnati in the conference tournament, that may not be enough. Only winning the AAC tournament is certain to give Houston its first NCAA tournament berth since 2010.
8. Monmouth
8 of 15
If Monmouth did not get an at-large berth last season, it is not going to get one this time around.
Last season, the Hawks had wins over UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown—all away from home—and finished alone in first place in the Metro-Atlantic Athletic Conference. But they ended up in the NIT after losing in the MAAC tournament finals to Iona by three points, dropping their record to 27-7.
The star of that team, 5'8" point guard Justin Robinson, is back this season and is likely to be named MAAC player of the year for the second consecutive season on Friday.
Monmouth played a tough nonconference schedule again this year but failed to pull off any stunning wins. The Hawks lost to South Carolina by a point in overtime and were beaten decisively in road games against Syracuse and North Carolina.
They did beat Memphis and Princeton, and they enter the MAAC tournament on a 16-game winning streak and with a 26-5 overall record after finishing in first place in the MAAC, four games ahead of second-place St. Peter's.
It all looks good, but if the Hawks don't hoist the MAAC tournament championship trophy, you won't see them in March Madness.
7. Ohio State
9 of 15
With Illinois and Iowa moving within reach of an at-large berth if they do something special in the Big Ten tournament, it leaves only Ohio State and Indiana as Big Ten teams depending on the automatic berth that goes to the conference tournament champion.
Unless the Buckeyes win the Big Ten tournament, they will probably miss the NCAA tournament for the second straight year after making it seven consecutive seasons before that.
Ohio State's RPI ranking of 66 coupled with that embarrassing home loss to Florida Atlantic (RPI ranking 286) put the Buckeyes in a bad spot. They do have some good wins, though, indicating they are a pretty good team.
They have four wins over Top 50 RPI teams (Minnesota, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan), and last week's win over Wisconsin was particularly important because it was a quality victory that ended a three-game losing streak.
With no Big Ten team ranked among the top 15 in either the Associated Press poll or the RPI, the Buckeyes are good enough to run through the conference tournament and claim an NCAA bid.
And if they reach the conference tournament finals and lose? Well, if they beat Indiana on Saturday and beat a good team on their way to the conference finals, they might get in, but only if things break their way in other conference tournaments.
6. Utah
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Utah could conceivably move within reach of an at-large NCAA berth if it beats California and Stanford in its final two regular-season games and knocks off a Pac-12 heavyweight in the conference tournament.
In all likelihood, though, even that won't be enough for the Utes, who probably need to win the conference tournament to reach the Big Dance.
Utah is 18-10 and could finish as high as fourth in a conference that features three teams ranked among the nation's top seven in this week's Associated Press poll. But that won't be enough.
Although Utah is likely to finish ahead of USC in the Pac-12 standings, the Trojans have a much better shot of landing an at-large berth than the Utes.
The numbers just don't add up in Utah's favor. The Utes have an RPI ranking of 83, and they will have a hard time raising that enough to get the selection committee's attention. If the committee members bother to take a look at their resume, they will see that the Utes have no wins over Top 25 RPI teams, and only one win over a team among the RPI Top 100.
They would get a second decent win if they beat Cal in Salt Lake City on Thursday, but that won't erase the loss to Oregon State, which has an RPI ranking of 286.
Utah simply doesn't have enough quality wins to show it belongs in the NCAA tournament. A win over USC is its best victory.
Only one of the three NCAA tournament projections even mentions Utah, and that is USA Today, which lists Utah under "no longer considered for at-large."
5. Illinois State
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Illinois State shared the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title, has an impressive 25-5 record to go with a good RPI of 32 and has won 18 of its last 19 games. It seems to add up to a guaranteed NCAA tournament berth.
But here's the problem: The Redbirds have no wins over an RPI Top 40 team, and their best victory—which came at home against Wichita State—may have been cancelled out by losing to the Shockers by 41 points in their second meeting. Add the fact that Illinois State has losses to two teams ranked outside the RPI Top 90 (San Francisco and Tulsa), and you have a team with an uncertain NCAA tournament status.
Indicative of the Redbirds' precarious situation is the way they are seeded in the three projections we cited. ESPN and CBSSports.com have Illinois State as a No. 12 seed, and USA Today projects the Redbirds as a No. 11 seed. That puts them on the fringe of inclusion.
A loss before the Missouri Valley championship game would be considered a bad defeat because it would come against a team ranked outside the RPI Top 100. That probably would knock the Redbirds out of the NCAA tournament picture.
If Illinois State loses to anyone other than Wichita State in the title game, that would be a bad loss as well, and probably ruin its hopes of an NCAA berth.
If Illinois State loses to Wichita State in the finals, it becomes a tossup whether the Redbirds will get an NCAA bid or not. Their fate would probably be determined by what happens at other conference tournaments.
The Redbirds are in much the same situation as Wichita State, although the judgment is that the Shockers are the better team, leaving the Redbirds several notches behind them in these rankings.
4. Pittsburgh
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Pittsburgh has three impressive wins against teams ranked among the RPI top 26. Not only did the Panthers beat top-15 RPI teams Virginia and Florida State at home, they beat No. 26 Maryland on the road by 14 points.
The Panthers also have wins over Marquette and Syracuse that carry some weight.
But three things are weighing Pittsburgh down. One is that terrible December loss to Duquesne, which has an RPI ranking of 239, while the second is its RPI ranking of 71. The third is the notion that the selection committee might find it impossible to give an at-large bid to a team that finished 4-14 in its conference, which is what the Panthers' record would be if they lose their final regular-season game Saturday at Virginia.
Yes, we know, the committee says it does not consider conference records or a team's place in the standings. But could you imagine the outcry if Pitt were invited to the NCAA tournament after finishing tied for 13th in a 15-team conference with just four conference wins? Even though it is the Atlantic Coast Conference, that simply would not fly with the public.
The impressive wins show that the Panthers are a pretty good team, and they have two players—Michael Young and Jamel Artis—who can pile up points against anyone. But they won't get NCAA tournament exposure unless the Panthers win the ACC tournament. A win or two against an ACC powerhouse won't be enough.
Pitt has put itself in this mess by losing 12 of its past 15 games, with one to go. The only way the Panthers and first-year coach Kevin Stallings can get out of it is to win five games on five consecutive days in a conference that features five teams ranked among the RPI Top 16.
3. Texas-Arlington
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Texas-Arlington is better than most people think, and the Mavericks might pull an early-round upset if they get into the NCAA tournament. That remains a big "if" at the moment, though.
All three projections list Arlington as a No. 12 seed, which means it might not be in the field at all as an at-large team and is included only because it is the Sun Belt Conference's top contender.
If Arlington loses in its conference tournament, it will remain in the discussion for an at-large berth for a few reasons. First of all, it has a pretty good RPI of 34 and has a decent road win over Texas. But the biggest factor in Arlington's favor, and the result that will require the selection committee to take a second look at the Mavericks, is the 65-51 road win over Saint Mary's.
The Gaels have been ranked in the Associated Press top 25 all season, and they have an RPI ranking of 17 and a BPI ranking of 14. Saint Mary's had won 23 of its previous 24 home games before facing the Mavericks on Dec. 9.
Not only did Arlington beat Saint Mary's on the Gaels' home floor, but the Mavericks dominated the game. The Mavericks led by 13 at halftime, stretched the margin to 20 points with 11:30 remaining and were never threatened.
However, their resume is pulled down by three losses to teams ranked outside the RPI Top 150 (Texas State, Troy, Coastal Carolina).
Only twice in the past 22 seasons has more than one Sun Belt team received an NCAA tournament berth, and two of the three teams involved those two seasons are no longer conference members.
Texas-Arlington knows that a loss anywhere along the line in the Sun Belt tournament will be considered a bad loss, because it is the only conference team with an RPI ranking in the Top 80. The Mavericks must suspect that failing to win the Sun Belt tournament may relegate them to the NIT.
2. Indiana
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On Dec. 12, Indiana was 8-1 and ranked No. 9 in the country, with impressive wins over Kansas and North Carolina under its belt. Discussions revolved around whether the Hoosiers were a Final Four team or a possible No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
A little more than two months later, the discussions surrounding Indiana are about whether it can produce a reversal that would somehow get it into the NCAA tournament.
The Hoosiers are 16-14, have lost eight of their last 10 games and are tied for 12th place in the 14-team Big Ten. They are not within shouting distance of the at-large bubble, and they presumably must win the Big Ten tournament to get to the NCAA tournament for a third straight year.
How the Hoosiers, who were ranked as high as No. 3 on Nov. 21, managed to descend to these depths is a matter of conjecture. They still had two starters from last year's conference championship squad, and James Blackmon Jr. would have been a starter if he had not suffered a season-ending injury early that season. But he is back, as are imposing big man Thomas Bryant and guard Robert Johnson.
The loss of OG Anunoby to a season-ending injury in mid-January hurt, especially on the defensive end, but the decline had begun before he was hurt. The Hoosiers were just 10-6 in the 16 games the 19-year-old played.
The Hoosiers have not been able to find ways to win close games; eight of their losses have been by five points or less or in overtime.
This is still a talented team, one capable of doing some damage if it can get the train rolling in the right direction. Rolling through the Big Ten tournament will be a major challenge for this team, which has not won more than three games in row since early December. But with no Big Ten team ranked in the top 15 this week, Indiana could conceivably find a way.
1. Wichita State
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Wichita State is ranked 21st in this week's Associated Press poll, has won 12 games in a row and finished tied for first in the Missouri Valley Conference. It also has no losses to teams ranked outside the RPI Top 50 and has proved itself on the national stage by reaching the Final Four in 2013 and earning a No. 1 seed in 2014.
So why would the Shockers need to add a conference tournament title to assure their inclusion in the NCAA tournament?
The simple answer is that they lack quality wins, but it is not as straightforward as that. Wichita State's resume will be the most troublesome for the selection committee to evaluate if it does not get that automatic berth.
The difficulty of that evaluation process is reflected in the varying assessments of three entities that project the NCAA tournament field. Joe Lunardi of ESPN has Wichita State comfortably into his projected field with a No. 7 seed. However, Shelby Mast of USA Today has it hanging on by the skin of its teeth as one of the last four teams in, giving the Shockers a No. 12 seed and playing a preliminary-round game. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com does not have the Shockers in his 68-team field at all.
If those three can't agree, imagine how the selection committee is going to struggle.
The Shockers' problem is their lack of quality wins. Their victory over conference rival Illinois State is their only win over a team ranked among the RPI Top 50, and their victory over Colorado State is their only other triumph over a team in the top 100.
Making Wichita State's bid for an at-large berth more difficult is the fact it won't face any team with an RPI better than 140 before it reaches the Missouri Valley Conference tournament finals.
While teams from major conferences can build their resumes with wins over top-flight opponents in their conference tournaments, Wichita State is stuck where it is and can only lose ground.
It's similar to Saint Mary's situation of last year. The Gaels tied for the regular-season West Coast Conference title and were ranked No. 23 in the USA Today Coaches poll one day before they lost in the WCC tournament finals to Gonzaga, dropping the Gaels' record to 27-5.
Saint Mary's did not receive an at-large NCAA bid because it lacked quality wins. The same might happen to Wichita State if it loses in the Missouri Valley tournament.
(We used the latest NCAA tournament field projections from three sources as a guide: ESPN, CBSSports.com and USA Today. The source for RPI rankings is NCAA.com, and the source for BPI rankings is ESPN. Records, rankings and statistics include games through March 1).
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