2017 NFL Draft: Projecting the Best Quarterbacks Available
The 2017 NFL draft has a big ol' scoop of vanilla ice cream where a glistening golden arm should be anchoring the class.
That doesn't mean there won't be a star quarterback who emerges from the group either immediately or eventually. It means that right now, as we go about the fragile business of evaluating football's most intricate position, there's a flaw with each of the top pivots.
Mitch Trubisky? He was only a one-year starter. Deshaun Watson? He relies too much on his legs, and poor field vision led to five multi-interception games during a championship season. DeShone Kizer? He was briefly benched at one point by Notre Dame in 2016.
Those questions won't deter teams from lining up to take the plunge. Remember, the state of NFL quarterback desperation has reached a point where teams will likely be talking themselves into signing Colin Kaepernick.
But the concerns around this quarterback draft class will lead to some hesitation and the need for heavy scrutiny.
That process has been going on for some time already, and it continues now as we make an early projection for how the top quarterbacks will line up. The projections and rankings that follow were based on NFL readiness and the likelihood of becoming a long-term starter.
1. Mitch Trubisky
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NFL general managers crave certainty when they select a quarterback in the first round. Of course, there's no such thing as a certain future when projecting quarterback prospects, and North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky presents a uniquely puzzling case.
He's definitely not, say, an Andrew Luck or Jameis Winston, two first-overall-pick quarterbacks who, at the very minimum, could be trusted right away to avoid bust status. But he doesn't feel like a Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson either, two quarterbacks who fell in the draft because their professional outlook was too difficult for teams to predict.
The truth lies somewhere in a vast, confusing middle that's filled with land mines. Finding it will be the job of general managers, coaches and scouts over the next 10 weeks.
At the root of that search will be two competing forces: Those who are concerned about Trubisky's lack of starting experience at the college level and those willing to overlook or flat out forget about his limited starting time because in one year he was that damn good.
Between now and April 27 you'll hear often that Trubisky was a one-year starter. We don't have to look far for a reason to be worried about that simple fact. For example, the Miami Dolphins drafted Ryan Tannehill with their eighth overall pick in 2012 after he logged only 19 total starts under center at Texas A&M. Tannehill then battled through an inconsistent first four years in the NFL before finally looking like a top-10 pick prior to a knee injury in 2016.
Experience is a tricky thing to put a lot of weight on, though. Sure, there's no denying its importance, as the jump to the NFL is hard enough even for the most established college quarterbacks. But quality can shine through even in a small sample size.
"Not enough people are giving him credit for having an amazing year as a first-year starter," a scout told Bleacher Report's Matt Miller. "And by the way, he threw almost as many passes in college as Carson Wentz did.
That last part is correct. Wentz threw 612 passes in college, while Trubisky was only marginally behind at 572. Inexperience didn't stop Wentz from being drafted out of North Dakota, and, although there were growing pains as expected in his rookie year with the Philadelphia Eagles, he showed lots of promise too.
The seed for promise and immediate returns with Trubisky has been planted by his natural accuracy, a fundamental skill that's tough to teach at the NFL level. In one year as a full-time starter he completed 68.0 percent of his pass attempts.
There's still no certainty in that number. But there is plenty of comfort.
NFL Projection: Immediate starter
2. Deshaun Watson
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Deshaun Watson doesn't come with the same experience concerns. Instead, it feels like if he had been allowed to enter the draft a year ago his outlook would have been a little better, even with less experience.
He's still an incredible athlete. The gift of mobility is both dazzling for NFL talent evaluators and dangerously intoxicating. But the more the NFL watched Watson, the more opportunity there was to pick apart his flaws.
The core concern hovering around Watson is familiar, and one he hasn't yet shaken even after excelling under the bright lights of two National Championship games in which he passed for a combined 825 yards with eight total touchdowns.
The worry among some is that what he can do with his legs is still a focus and not bonus.
Sports Illustrated's Emily Kaplan recently asked a group of experienced NFL minds about their Watson evaluations. The group included former head coach and two-time Super Bowl champion Mike Shanahan.
He essentially said that being mobile and able to account for 1,934 yards on the ground over three college seasons is clearly great. But he added that it's better if both mentally and visually you're a passer first, and a runner second.
"What does Deshaun Watson have to do to be an elite quarterback? What he’ll have to do, eventually, is when he drops back, he has to read the whole field and not just one side of the field.
The way you can do that is you need to focus on your coverage and the concepts that are going on. When a guy has the ability to run, that’s O.K., but when he’s approaching the line of scrimmage he has to keep his eyes downfield before he crosses the line of scrimmage to see if there’s an open receiver.
If you miss him, well now they’re looking at you to make a seven-yard gain. But, as you’re looking downfield as you approach the line of scrimmage and everything is covered, use your athletic ability and slide before somebody hits you.
When the pocket collapses a little bit, he steps up and looks for the hole, and he’s looking to escape to one of those holes. In time, what he’ll learn is to slide and step up in the pocket, slide into those holes where he can still keep his focus downfield. If you don’t do that, you don’t last in the NFL.
"
Statistically Watson's production as a passer didn't change much between 2015 and 2016. The notable exception was his per-attempt passing average dropping from 8.4 to 7.9. His accuracy dropped too, though only slightly (67.8 in 2015, and 67.0 in 2016).
The one area of consistency wasn't the good kind though. In both 2015 and 2016, Watson's lack of vision in the pocket led to poor decisions and plenty of interceptions. Over those two years combined he was picked off 20 times.
The challenge ahead of Watson in the NFL is to be the quarterback Shanahan described. Some athletic quarterbacks adapt well and clear that hurdle. Wilson comes to mind in Seattle, and the Titans' Marcus Mariota made great strides in his second season.
But many others like Kaepernick and the Browns' Robert Griffin III never truly develop the field vision to excel at the next level.
Watson will be a high and possibly top-10 pick only if the decision makers of QB-needy teams believe he can adjust mentally and do it fast.
NFL Projection: Eventual starter
3. DeShone Kizer
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How the top three projected quarterbacks for the 2017 NFL draft fall right now depends on which way-too-early mock draft you're reading, and what hour you're reading it. And the educated guessing seems to get especially murky around Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer.
In his most recent mock draft, Miller predicted Kizer will land with the Chicago Bears at No. 3 overall, making him the second quarterback off the board behind only Trubisky.
However, Miller did that with some hesitation. He noted that although Kizer's physical stature (6'4" and 230 lbs) and strong arm make him attractive to QB-needy teams early, there was a lack of steadiness during his two years as the Fighting Irish's starter.
"Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer has a big arm, displayed excellent touch and timing and possesses the athleticism to be a threat on the move," Miller wrote. "The question marks come with his up-and-down play over the course of two seasons."
"Kizer is an attractive option given his upside, but he's no sure thing at No. 3."
Elsewhere, NFL Network's Mike Mayock, the draft guru godfather, is very bullish on Kizer, slotting him in as the top quarterback available in his position rankings. However, of the five draft experts who produce regular mock drafts at NFL.com, only one has him in the first round at all.
So yes, calling the outlook on Kizer scattered is an understatement, as it seems not even a remote consensus has emerged. Even his own head coach at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly, was confused and frustrated early in the 2016 season when Kizer had reached his lowest low.
Kelly called Kizer's play "below standard" and "not acceptable" four games into the 2016 season, via Dan Parr of College Football 24/7. Those comments came directly after Kizer threw for 318 yards against Duke—a career single-game high at the time—but also committed two critical turnovers.
Kelly's criticism deep into a season is still jarring, particularly when he was referring to a quarterback who could lead his draft class. But, for Kizer, his coach's words were considered a test and a challenge. How did he respond? The 21-year-old closed the season with a five-game stretch where he threw 12 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.
There are still both accuracy and consistency concerns, as Kizer logged five games in 2016 when his completion percentage fell below 55.0. But he has a booming arm and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt during his college career.
A team will likely take the leap on Kizer at some point early, and it's just a matter of how early. He offers more than enough to charm teams with his natural talent. And enough to scare them away.
NFL Projection: Eventual starter
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4. Patrick Mahomes II
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Everyone who evaluates NFL draft prospects each year—from armchair general managers to actual general managers—craves comparisons to current players and even vague reaching ones.
They give us a baseline to work with and a mental image to use while trying to make sense of how the film and college production will translate over to an NFL field. Most of all, player comparisons offer up something the human brain naturally searches for: a concrete, black-and-white answer.
Most comparisons are at best half-truths, though, and serve only to quell anxiety. But what if there really is no player comparison at all for a rising young quarterback prospect? What if you're Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes?
It doesn't take much film-watching to realize there's something different about Mahomes, who threw for 5,052 yards during the 2016 season with 41 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Being different and unique will be terrifying for some general managers at a position that demands conformity in the NFL as well as the ability to execute from the pocket. For others, it'll be intriguing and worth the risk.
There's a growing feeling that enough of the latter thinking could push Mahomes into the first round. During a recent appearance on the Setting The Edge podcast, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said some league talent evaluators have told him Mahomes is their favorite quarterback in the draft (via Dave Facillo of Niners Nation).
It's not hard to see why the volume of buzz around Mahomes could be getting louder. He has an arm cannon capable of launching balls deep downfield with accuracy. He can do that from the pocket, but he's often more comfortable when sprinting away and rolling out.
Athleticism oozes from him, and it was on full display during his final game for Texas Tech against Baylor. That's when he threw for 583 yards and six touchdowns. Of those six touchdown passes, three came on 60-plus yard receptions during an evening Mahomes averaged 12.7 yards per throw.
His deep heaves were mixed in with plenty of other throws when he escaped pressure or sprinted to one side as part of the play design and then still connected with pinpoint precision.
He's not an overpowering physical force as a mobile quarterback like, say, the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton. And he's not quite slippery and shifty enough to warrant even a passing whisper of Russell Wilson's name.
The brand of athleticism offered by Mahomes lies somewhere in the middle, and his talent ceiling is high if he receives the proper development and grooming.
NFL Projection: Eventual starter
5. Davis Webb
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There's no lack of experience with Davis Webb of the California Golden Bears. That concern will follow Trubisky throughout draft season, and to a lesser extent Kizer as well. But Webb logged 1,367 pass attempts throughout his four-year college career.
What does that experience tell us? It tells us that Webb is a promising prospect who potentially has the physical tools to be an NFL starter. But, while he has the arm strength to go along with his size (6'5" and 209 lbs), Webb's accuracy can lead to involuntary head-scratching.
He finished his college career with a merely decent completion percentage of 61.5. That had scouts looking for Webb to show improvement during the Senior Bowl, but little changed throughout the week of practice.
"Webb made incremental improvements as the week went on but left Mobile as he entered it," wrote Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline. "He's a strong-armed passer who doesn’t always know where the ball is going."
Struggles with accuracy won't derail a prospect as long as those problems are intermittent and not constant. What inaccuracy will do, however, is force teams with immediate quarterback needs to hesitate, possibly making Webb an early Day 3 prospect. That's where he would be the ideal pick for the New York Giants if they decide the time is right to find a successor for 36-year-old Eli Manning.
But there could be growing momentum for Webb to rise beyond Day 3 status. NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said he "wouldn't be shocked" to see both Webb and Pittsburgh's Nathan Peterman move into the second round. He called them both potential starters at the next level.
Jeremiah has also spoken to an executive who thinks Webb "will end up being the best quarterback of this draft class."
In the end, Webb could be an example of a passer who has a pre-draft Dak Prescott feel as a high-potential quarterback whose flaws need to be smoothed over. That's the ideal mid-round value pick, but there's a chance Webb could be elevated unnecessarily.
NFL Projection: Potential starter after development
Best of the Rest
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Here are a few more quarterback prospects to keep your eye on as draft season cranks up.
Brad Kaaya: Kaaya entered the draft early, and many believe he would have benefited from another year of development. That includes an NFL scout Pauline spoke to at the Senior Bowl who said Kaaya made a "huge mistake" entering the draft.
Projection: Developmental project
Nathan Peterman: There's some early-round chatter building for Peterman, who averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt during his senior season. His draft value could rise because of Peterman's experience in a pro-style offense at the University of Pittsburgh.
Projection: Developmental project
Chad Kelly: If we were assessing Kelly based on arm talent alone, he might be considered an early Day 3 pick. But his recovery from a torn ACL and, more importantly, numerous off-field issues will likely lead to a fall much further than that.
Projection: Career backup
Josh Dobbs: The Tennessee Volunteers prospect saw his passer rating spike from 127.0 in 2015 to 150.6 in 2016. He's also athletically gifted (831 rushing yards in 2016) and recorded 32 rushing touchdowns in his college career. However, he still needs to be refined as a pocket passer.
Projection: Developmental project
Jerod Evans: Evans probably should have returned for one more year of college seasoning too. He has Trubisky's experience as a one-year starter but doesn't come close to matching his talent.
Projection: Developmental project
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