2017 NFL Free Agency: This Year's Top Candidates to Be Overpaid

The idea of a bad contract in the NFL is going to drastically change once free agency starts March 9.

"The bottom line is, a lot of guys are gonna get overpaid this year," former NFL executive and ESPN analyst Bill Polian said during an interview on Sirius XM NFL.

With over $1 billion in available salary-cap space, nearly every franchise has the flexibility to be aggressive in pursuing talented individuals to improve rosters.

The projected market, positional value, previous production and personal histories helped determine which players are the most likely to be overpaid this offseason.

Numerous exorbitant free-agent contracts are expected to be signed, and no one should be surprised by the figures. Even so, Bleacher Report identified 10 free agents who are expected to receive paydays in excess of their perceived value.

Honorable Mention

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A.J. Klein: When asked to play a larger role in 2016, the linebacker didn't perform as well as previous seasons. 

Chance Warmack: The former first-round pick is coming off a season-ending hand injury and enters a loaded guard class alongside Kevin Zeitler, Larry Warford and Ronald Leary. 

Eddie Lacy: Due to Lacy's history of injuries and weight issues, a team will be hard-pressed to rely on him as its workhorse. 

Jared Cook: The veteran tight end played well for the Packers in the postseason, but he's never put together a complete campaign. 

Levine Toilolo: A 25-year-old, 6'8" and 265-pound tight end sounds like an ideal free-agent signing, but he's not a natural receiver with 62 catches in four seasons. 

Luke Joeckel: Someone will take a chance on this offensive lineman in an attempt to develop the former second overall pick.

Mario Addison: Pass-rushers are held in high regard even if they're only part-time players like Addison. 

Mike Glennon: In a barren quarterback market, Glennon is 27 years old with starting experience.

Nolan Carroll: An experienced cornerback who started 16 games last season should hold some value, but Carroll already turned 30 years old. 

Sylvester Williams: The North Carolina product is built like a nose tackle, yet he graded among the league's worst run defenders, per Pro Football Focus.

10. Malcolm Smith

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Tackling is fundamental. However, a large number of tackles doesn't necessarily indicate a player's worth. 

Since signing with the Oakland Raiders in 2015, Smith has amassed 225 total tackles. He fit well in Ken Norton Jr.'s defense after the two came over from the Seattle Seahawks. 

However, the Raiders had their issues along the second line of defense. Oakland couldn't stop any of the league's tight ends. Only two starting linebackers graded worse than Smith in pass coverage last season, per Pro Football Focus. 

With an emphasis on tight ends in today's passing games, Smith is a liability. His tackle numbers and age (27 years old) look good on paper, but his overall skill set does not represent the type of player a team will likely sign as a three-down option.

As athletic linebackers become more important due to a heavier emphasis on defensive sub-packages, Smith remains an undersized (6'0", 225 lbs) run defender.

9. Pierre Garcon

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A fine line exists in today's pass-happy NFL between a legitimate No. 1 target and productive wide receiver. Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr., for example, are true difference-makers. Opponents must account for them on every play. Garcon is a reliable option who serves as a quarterback's security blanket. 

The nine-year veteran led the Washington Redskins in 2016 with 79 receptions for 1,041 yards. Yet DeSean Jackson is a better deep threat, Jordan Reed is a bigger mismatch and the diminutive Jamison Crowder (5'8") led the team in touchdown receptions with seven.

Plus, Garcon turns 31 years old before the start of the 2017 campaign. This free agency will be his last big payday before his career starts to decline. 

According to the Washington Post's Mike Jones, multiple teams are already interested. If any of them offer more than Washington, Garcon will likely depart the nation's capital even though he shouldn't be considered a top option in his next offense. 

8. Martellus Bennett

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Tight end Martellus Bennett plans to be paid handsomely this offseason after being crowned a Super Bowl champion. How do we know?

"I'm going into free agency as a Super Bowl champion," Bennett mentioned on the telecast after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. "You know they overpay Super Bowl champions."

Bennett's remarks were made in jest, but a kernel of truth exists; he is the top available tight end and brings championship experience to a locker room. 

However, he'll turn 30 years old just after he signs his next contract. As talented as he is, Bennett hasn't been as effective on other teams. During his lone season in New England, the Texas A&M product set a new career high with seven touchdown receptions. He also averaged 12.7 yards per reception, his second-best effort since his rookie campaign.

Tom Brady isn't following Bennett wherever he goes, though. 

7. T.J. Lang

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Guard T.J. Lang, 29, is a premier pass protector. He also has an injury history.

Last season, Lang finished behind perennial Pro Bowler Marshal Yanda as the game's best pass-blocking guard, per Pro Football Focus. In fact, the website graded Lang as a top-four performer in each of the last three seasons.

To the veteran's credit, he played through multiple nagging injuries during his career, too. But he required hip surgery after the season, according to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. He also suffered a foot injury that forced him out of the NFC Championship Game. 

This year's guard class features multiple young blockers in Kevin Zeitler, Larry Warford and Ronald Leary with fewer concerns. Lang is tough as nails, a sound technician and coming off his first Pro Bowl campaign. Teams will place a high value on each of these qualities, yet there are better available options. 

6. Matt Kalil

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The Minnesota Vikings made Matt Kalil the fourth overall selection in the 2012 NFL draft, and the USC product is about to enter a free-agent market devoid of top-shelf left tackles. As such, some team is going to take a chance on his talent. 

Prior to last season, Kalil started 64 straight games. After extending his streak by two more game, the 27-year-old blocker suffered a hip injury and needed to be placed on injured reserve. Even when healthy, Kalil hasn't been a premier blindside protector beyond his rookie campaign. In fact, he received a negative grade from Pro Football Focus in each of the last four seasons.

Anything more than a short-term, prove-it deal will be too much. Yes, teams in need of a left tackle may be desperate due to the lack of talent found in both the free-agent and draft classes, but Kalil's previous play, along with his recent injury history, doesn't warrant a substantial contract. 

5. Morris Claiborne

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Seven games is all a team can rely on when weighing the possibility of signing cornerback Morris Claiborne. In the span of seven games, Claiborne developed from a massive draft bust into a competent defensive back. As the corner emerged in 2016, his season came to an abrupt end due to a groin injury. 

Prior to his latest injury, Claiborne played the best football of his career. He graded among the top six cornerbacks in coverage during that period, per Pro Football Focus. As well as he played, franchises saw what once made him the sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft. 

Even so, teams can't forget how his first four seasons went. Claiborne dealt with multiple injuries and being benched on more than one occasion. Since his rookie campaign, the corner hasn't played more than 11 games in a season. 

Claiborne's talent is tantalizing, especially after he flashed last year. Another franchise will believe it can maximize his abilities. If he remains healthy, the possibility does exist, but his career history isn't promising.

4. Alshon Jeffery

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The acquisition of Alshon Jeffery has the chance to be a home run or a big swing and a miss.

With the Cleveland Browns pressing to get a deal done with Terrelle Pryor before the start of free agency, per Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot, Jeffery should be considered the top available wide receiver. At 27 years old and with a pair of 1,100-yard seasons under his belt, the South Carolina product is a legitimate No. 1 target. 

A year ago, Jeffrey played under the franchise tag for the Chicago Bears. If a team wants to acquire his services, it will likely have to place him among the league's highest-paid receivers. The top five receivers are currently playing under contracts that range from $60-71.256 million in total value, per Spotrac.

Interested organizations must be wary of Jeffery's history, though. He experienced hamstring issues in 2015 that forced him onto injured reserve. A year later, the league suspended Jeffery four games for violating its performance-enhancing drug policy. Injury and suspension histories make him a dicey investment.

3. Dontari Poe

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Dontari Poe is one of the biggest—literally and figuratively—free agents about to test the market. His size (6'3", 346 lbs) and previous success shouldn't blind potential suitors to the available defensive tackle market. 

Yes, Poe is only 26 years old, his athleticism is off the charts for a mammoth nose tackle and he's already been named to a pair of Pro Bowls. Yet his impact isn't worth the contract he'll likely sign as one of the game's top interior defenders. The NFL's top-paid defensive tackles range from $85.5 million to $114.4 million in total contract value, per Spotrac.

Instead, teams that aren't swayed by name recognition can look at the free-agent class and not get into a bidding war for the Memphis product. Brandon Williams, Bennie Logan and Johnathan Hankins are all 27 years old or younger and graded better against the run than Poe, per Pro Football Focus. 

Poe is a better interior pass-rusher compared to the other defensive tackles listed, but he's not the same caliber as Kawann Short, who is also a free agent. A team can get stronger up the middle without splurging on one of the game's most notable interior defenders. 

2. Jason Pierre-Paul

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Jason Pierre-Paul's ability to terrorize quarterbacks makes him a top free-agent target. Last season, he played under a one-year deal to prove himself. He expects to cash in this offseason after a seven-sack performance in 12 games. 

"Football is a game of business," he said in January, per NJ.com's James Kratch. "You don't work for free. That's basically it. It's going to be a family decision, and it'll be my decision at the end of the road."

The Giants are expected to make a "legitimate run" to retain Pierre-Paul, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, but the team already has a massive amount of money tied into its defensive line after last year's acquisitions of Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon. 

Despite the interest Pierre-Paul will surely demand, his injury history must be taken into account. This isn't simply a matter of his reconstructed right hand after a 2015 Fourth of July accident.

Four years ago, the defender required back surgery to remove a herniated disc. He missed the final four games of the 2016 campaign due to a sports hernia. After playing a full 16-game slate only once since 2012, there's a major risk in signing the 28-year-old sack artist to a long-term deal.

1. Kirk Cousins

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Kirk Cousins also finds himself in what we'll dub the Joe Flacco position; he's about to enter free agency at the perfect time. Flacco played out the final year of a previous deal before leading his team to a Super Bowl victory. The Baltimore Ravens then made him the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history (at the time) with a six-year, $120.6 million contract. 

Cousins may not have led the Washington Redskins to a Super Bowl or even the playoffs this past season, but he couldn't be entering free agency at a better time. The 28-year-old is by far the best available quarterback in free agency and the incoming draft class. 

As well as Cousins played over the past two seasons, he's expected to enter the $20-plus million club. For context, 11 quarterbacks average more than $20 million per season based on their current contracts, per Spotrac. If Cousins signs a long-term deal with an average in excess of $21 million per season, he'll make more than Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. 

Cousins is good, but he's not that good.