Liver's 2009 NFL Week Five Picks

Now that the Dallas Cowboys season is over, the Liver has to wonder now if he wants them to completely go in the toilet so that one Wade Phillips will be exorcised from the franchise like a bad demon. Now if Jerry Jones could just realize that the way he is running this organization is part of the reason why it hasn’t won a playoff game in 13 years.

Why so glum at 2-2 you ask? Because this team just isn’t consistent enough. They make too many mental mistakes and commit too many penalties.

Because the Cowboys already trail the Giants by two games in the NFC East and they still must make a trip to New York in December. December also includes road trips to New Orleans and Washington, and home games against San Diego and Philadelphia.

Last weekend’s kick in the nuts against the Broncos was just more evidence that the 2009 Dallas Cowboys aren’t even waiting for December to do their annual swoon. The offense can’t score points and the defense is good until when it counts in the fourth quarter. They only led a winless Carolina team by six points late in the fourth quarter and could have lost that game had Jake Delhomme not given Terence Newman six points.

They led a Denver team in the fourth quarter that couldn’t get out of its own way on offense up until an improbable 51-yard Brandon Marshall TD that displayed some of the poorest give up tackling you’ll ever see courtesy of the Cowboys secondary.

Tony Romo continues to show why he can’t be depended on to be this team’s leader as he reverts to his old form of turning over the ball at the worst times every other week. A Romo fumble gift-wrapped seven of the Broncos 17 points and another interception recovered by Champ Bailey at the Broncos six cost the Cowboys three if not seven points. As Coach Tony D’Amato says that’s “the f***ing difference between WINNING and LOSING between LIVING and DYING!”

I won’t bother to go into the horseshit holding call on Martellus Bennett early in the fourth quarter that wiped out a 21-yard Tashard Choice run to the Denver 40 OR the final play of the game where Champ Bailey hooked his right arm around Sam Hurd’s waist so he could reach with the left over Hurd’s shoulder to knock away what would’ve been the game tying TD.

It seems that the NFL is interested in rivaling the NBA for poor officiating but I guess it could be worse. Your team could be playing against Mr. GQ QB and the Patriots who will most likely get EVERY borderline roughing the QB penalty known to man this season.

The Cowboys had every opportunity to put away a Denver team that isn’t nearly as good as their undefeated record would indicate and couldn’t. Not having their home run hitter Felix Jones didn’t help nor did Jason Garrett’s idiotic abandonment of the run in the second half as the Cowboys ran the ball 7 TIMES while leading for most of it. And that’s not taking away anything from a Denver defense that has gotten a superb makeover by Mike Nolan.

The Cowboys offensive line gave up five sacks and Romo got his ass kicked all over the field. Maybe that explains why the majority of his passes as the game progressed were too high and off the mark. I don’t think Roy Williams liked him very much this week. I probably wouldn’t like my QB either if he led me into a hit that nearly gutted me like a fresh Thanksgiving turkey waiting to be devoured by a band of homeless people.

It’s hard to say which is more troubling; the Cowboys offense or defense. After four games Tony Romo has four TDs and four INTs. Incidentally, three of those TDs came courtesy of a winless Tampa Bay team that is lucky to know what zip code their own stadium is in. That’s two games in a row with no TDs for Romo.

In a way, I feel bad for him. He is possibly, the most talked about, under the microscope professional Dallas sports athlete I have ever seen. In this day and age where ANYONE can purport to be a sports expert, WHICH I DO NOT, and You Tube, blog and publish their opinions just about anywhere; high-profile athletes are under the microscope more than ever. I’m just an asshole who keeps a bottle of Glenlivet next to my bed so I can have breakfast in bed when I wake up.

His story was impossible not to like at the beginning. An undrafted QB who had been holding a clipboard since 2003 comes off the bench in 2006 and leads the Dallas Cowboys to early success and is, literally, an overnight sensation. With the odds stacked against him, only the most ardent of Cowboys haters could not like him.  But with that early success came Hollywood girlfriends, numerous commercials and big pay days; all without winning a Super Bowl much less a playoff game.

Now three years later and numerous big game (see the month of December) failures, Romo’s play has regressed so badly that he’s a merely an average QB at this point. Over the off season, Jerry Jones purged the team of trouble elements (Baby Drop) that might have kept Romo from taking a more vocal leadership on the team. He even infamously coined the phrase “Romo-friendly” when describing what the offense would be like this season. It has been anything but so far.

Had he kept a lower profile, he probably wouldn’t be as dissected and controversial as he is across the country. And by lower profile I mean not getting up on the stage during rock shows in L.A. and singing “Don’t Stop Believing,” judging beauty pageants or showing up at the Liver’s beloved Casa Vega in Sherman Oaks, California with Jessica Simpson while your team is having OTAs in preparation for the upcoming season.

Yes, the Liver did see both up close but did not ask for autographs nor pester them. When you live in Los Angeles, seeing celebrities gets old after the first month. To be honest, if the Liver had asked Romo a question it would’ve gone along the lines of “What the hell happened in Filthy last year?”

Say what you will about Tom Brady but he’s earned the right to date, impregnate and marry actresses and supermodels. He’s got three rings. Romo likes being a celebrity, he’s embraced it from the moment he became a public figure, and this is the price he has to pay when he is the starting QB of the Dallas Cowboys who is the highest paid player on the team and is playing the way he’s playing right now.

I’m not blaming all of this on him; the Cowboys blitz pickup seems to be kindred spirits with Green Bay’s right now. That could also explain why Romo was possibly confused as to whether third and goal in his mind was really fourth and goal at the end of the game. There’s the aforementioned Jason Garrett play calling which makes me wonder if he’s having a few drinks during the game. With your offense in scoring position and Jason Witten, arguably your best offensive player on the field, you call two throws to SAM HURD who’s being covered by one of the best corners in the game in Champ Bailey?

I could also remind you all that Wade Phillips claimed not to know that Marion Barber’s quad tightened up in the second half and couldn’t play but then that would be reminding you that you get wet when you jump into a large body of water.   

Right; next thing you’ll tell me David Letterman has had sex with girls that worked on his show. You mean celebrities, even ones that look like David Letterman, can have sex with anyone they want just because they’re celebrities? You mean that Southern California has been on fire for the last two months and no amount of firefighters can put it out?

Thank God for the Texas Longhorns. Only eight more days until I see Sooner blood washing over the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

You’ll probably notice that this could be one of the worst weeks of the season game-wise. By my count there are only three games this weekend (Cincinnati/Baltimore, Atlanta/San Francisco, New England/Denver) that hold ANY interest whatsoever. Always remember Coughlin’s Law; Anything else is always something better.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 6-8

2009 record against the spread: 39-23 

F.Y.I. The Liver incorrectly gave himself a push for the September 20 game between Oakland and Kansas City. Kansas City was laying 3 at home and the Liver took Oakland plus the points. Oakland won 13-10 so the supposed push was actually a win.

Sunday, October 11

Minnesota at St. Louis (+10)
Must be nice to be a Minnesota fan at the Metrodome this past weekend. The Vikings win the Brett Favre Bowl I Monday night then the Twins win their division the next night. The Vikings looked very impressive in their win over the Packers and right now, look to be the best in the NFC next to the Giants and the Saints. If that pass rush and offensive line continues to dominate like they have, they just might be THE best in the NFC. They could win this game with Favre playing blindfolded.

More bad news for the Rams; Rush Limbaugh is part of a group along with Dave Checketts that is bidding to buy the team away from current ownership.

Here’s the part that should really disgust you; Rush Limbaugh can actually afford to buy an NFL team. Thanks to all the conservative assholes out there who listen to his show and have helped line his pockets with that kind of insane cash. But on the bright side, at least Rush will be able to help himself to all the Demerol and painkillers he wants for free. Guess the Rams won’t be drafting any black QBs anytime soon. If Rush buys the team, will the Rams be the first modern NFL team to field an all white boy unit? Pick: Minnesota

Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10 ½)
As if being a Detroit sports fan hasn’t been difficult enough over the past year, they had to endure an epic collapse by the Tigers Tuesday night. Now the Lions have to face a re energized Steelers team. Pittsburgh nearly blew a 28-0 lead but closed out a defensively challenged Chargers team 38-28 Sunday night and, for that night anyway, found their dormant running game in the form of Rashard Mendenhall. They should find it again against a Lions team that still has a long ways to go on defense. The Lions brass would be wise to let Matt Stafford, who is already nursing an injury, sit this one out as he could be put as Sensei Kreese would say “out of commission” by the Steelers pass rush. Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas at Kansas City (+8)
If Dallas loses this game, Wade Phillips shouldn’t even bother coming back to Dallas on the flight. Then again this is a team that is winless and we all Dallas can beat those teams. It’s just the ones with SOME talent that they can’t close out in the end. No Felix Jones again and Roy Williams and his HURTING rib cage will probably not be much of a factor but it shouldn’t mater against this utter mess of a team across the board. The Chiefs have the lowest third down conversion rate in the NFL. Anyone want to take odds on how long it takes for Todd Haley to piss everyone on this team off? Looks like firing your offensive coordinator the week before the season starts really fires a team up. Kansas City, Buffalo and Tampa Bay are a combined 1-11. Still, this game worries me. Playing in Arrowhead is never easy and this could be the dreaded “statement” game for the Chiefs.  Pick: Kansas City

Oakland at N.Y. Giants (-15)
Eli Manning’s recently diagnosed plantar fasciitis could have far reaching effects later on in the season but that foot would have to fall off for the Giants to lose to this pathetic Raiders offense that hasn’t scored a TD in two weeks.  Even if Manning doesn’t play and David Carr is asked to run the offense, they should still steamroll this Oakland team. Pick: New York

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-15)
Donovan McNabb returns after missing two games and should find it quite enjoyable against a winless Tampa Bay team that will be lucky to win two games this year. Look for Michael Vick to freak his teammates out when he starts barking in the huddle. Taking two home teams laying 15 points each? Priceless. Pick: Filthy

Cleveland at Buffalo (-6)
So it looks like the Dog Pound and the rest of Cleveland won’t have Braylon Edwards and his drops to kick around anymore. They had their chances to win last week in overtime against Cincinnati but couldn’t pull it out. They may have a shot here against a Buffalo offense that is struggling to score points. How’s that new offensive coordinator thing working out again? If Cleveland wins this game, look for Baby Drop to have his first meltdown of the season and Dick Jauron to be fired. Pick: Cleveland

Washington at Carolina (-3 ½)
You keep thinking that this Panthers team has to get better considering that this same team won 12 games a year ago. They can’t be THAT bad, can they? The Redskins should be a good remedy for them. Look for Carolina to get their first win and force Jim Zorn to adjust the typeface on his resume. Pick: Carolina

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-8 ½)
FINALLY…a game worth your time. Who would’ve thought you’d say that about ANY Bengals game this season? The Ravens will be seething after their heartbreaking loss against the Pats last weekend and the Bengals could see the worst of it. The Ravens need to get back to the run and avoid the drops and penalties which cost them the win last weekend. The Bengals passing game has been suspect the last 2 weeks, despite winning both games, and has to improve to come out with the upset here. Pick: Cincinnati

Atlanta at San Francisco (-2 ½)
Another game worthy of interest. Michael Crabtree finally signed a six year contract with 49’rs this week. I’m sure it had nothing to do with their 3-1 record and control of the NFC West. The real surprise is that M.C. Hammer had a hand in the negotiations. Has Crabtree familiarized himself with Hammer’s financial past? I know that when I sign my first big contract I want a guy who was so irresponsible with his $30 million that he was bankrupt inside of 10 years.

Then again, given the M.C. Hammer/Deion Sanders/Eugene Parker connection, maybe it isn’t so strange. Deion has been “mentoring” Crabtree over the last year acting as a go-between for Crabtree and his agent Eugene Parker who just happens to be Deion’s agent. Hammer and Sanders have been friends for years and this could’ve been Deion’s way of throwing his buddy a much-needed bone of good publicity. Very shady dealings going on there. Just ask Dez Bryant.

Next thing you’re gonna tell me, President Obama is going to hire Hammer as his new economic advisor. Atlanta is coming off a bye and will find it difficult to establish the run against a tough 49’rs run defense. That means Matt Ryan will have to make plays through the air and attack the 49’rs secondary which is no slouch either. Pick: S.F.

Houston at Arizona (-5 ½)
Arizona and Kurt Warner come off a much needed bye week and find a shaky Texans defense waiting for them. Look for Houston to follow their pattern of lose/win, lose/win. However, there should be no shortage of points scored in this game. Take the over here if you can. Pick: Arizona

New England at Denver (+3 ½)
This could possibly be the most intriguing game of the weekend. Not because it’s the mind numbing 4-0 Broncos and Josh McDaniels going against his old Patriots team that is 3-1 and improving each week. The intrigue will be in seeing GQ QB wear one of his wife’s pink dresses during the game; remember the NFL is trying to raise awareness for breast cancer this month.

After seeing what constitutes as roughing the Brady last week against the Ravens, that’s all that remains for the NFL to do in order to make its point that GOD FORBID any mean old defender touch a hair on poor Tom’s chinny old chin. Guess we all know by now which position sells this league don’t we? Too bad because Mike Nolan’s defense can get after the QB, just ask one Tony Romo. It should be an incredibly physical game notwithstanding as both teams hit and tackle well. I’m gonna take a chance on the Broncos here. They’ve earned it. Pick: Denver

Jacksonville at Seattle (PK)
Jacksonville has rebounded from an 0-2 start with two straight wins over divisional opponents and is showing some signs of life in the running game. Seattle gets Matt Hasselbeck back (try saying that five times in a row) but the shaky offensive line, minus Walter Jones, might have him back on the sidelines sooner rather than later. For some reason, the smart money is on the Seahawks. Pick: Seattle

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3 ½)
Think NBC wishes they had a season-long ability to flex games? The Colts look better each week and are the best in the AFC right now while the 0-4 Titans get worse every week. How bad is bad for the Titans? Vince Young is taking snaps on the sideline. Never thought in a million years that mentioning Vince Young would be synonymous with desperation but it is. It’s hard to believe that this uninspired team is coached by the great Jeff Fisher. I want to take the Titans here to cover but they’ve shown nothing this season to warrant it. The Colts also get Dwight Freeney back ahead of schedule and Bob Sanders is close to returning. That could make this team nearly unbeatable. Pick: Indy

Monday, October 12

N.Y. Jets at Miami (+1 ½)
So all it takes to get the hell out of Cleveland is to complain about staph infections or punch out one of Baby Bron’s buddies. Look for Brady Quinn to get into a bar brawl this coming weekend. Either way, Braylon Edwards just got a new lease on life as he goes to a much better team. The question is whether or not he’ll be suspended for his fracas over the weekend. Mark Sanchez got his first dose of reality last week and it could continue against Joey Porter and Jason Taylor coming off the edges. The Wildcat didn’t confuse Rex Ryan when he was with Baltimore last year and the Ravens beat the hell out of Miami in the playoffs. Whether he has the personnel in New York to combat it is another thing. Pick: Miami