Super Bowl Odds 2017: Spread Info, Money Line Picks for Patriots vs. Falcons

The odds surrounding Super Bowl 51 between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons remain in a holding pattern. 

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas clearly don't want to swing too far in one direction or the other. The posture isn't hard to understand, given that the offensive-minded showdown featuring Tom Brady and Matt Ryan is capable of swinging in either direction in a matter of seconds.

Given the offensive potential and dominance of both sides on the path to Sunday's encounter, the moneyline and overall odds paint a clear picture—lots of scoring and an outcome akin to the flip of a coin.

Date	Location	Time	TV	Point Spread	ML	Over/Under	Prediction
Feb. 5	NRG Stadium, Houston	6:30 p.m. ET	Fox	NE -3	NE (-120), ATL (+100)	58.5	Patriots

Odds Analysis

First, the over/under.

This is a huge line, though it isn't too hard to see why. Brady hardly looks like a guy going on 40 years old, not after casually throwing 28 touchdowns over 12 games during the regular season. Bettors shouldn't read too much into his throwing two interceptions against the Houston Texans in the playoffs, either, considering the Texans defense was the best he faced all year.

It's the same story for Atlanta. Ryan threw 38 touchdowns over a full season and has seven more with no interceptions over two playoffs games.

The supporting casts around the leading men are simply elite. LeGarrette Blount rumbled for a 1,000-yard season and 18 touchdowns for the Patriots. Mostly without Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman stepped up big through the air.

When Julio Jones wasn't torching defenses by himself with 1,409 yards in the regular season, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were rumbling for more than 1,500 yards combined, and Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel were putting up strong numbers.

For the over/under, bettors might shy away from a lofty point total because the Patriots only permitted 15.6 points per game during the regular season and then held Houston and Pittsburgh under 20 apiece.

The problem with this timid approach is Atlanta's offense, which dropped 36 points on the Seattle Seahawks, a team that allowed just 18.3 points per game during the regular season.

That said, the Falcons are showing some caution of their own, as captured by the team's official Twitter account:

Still, the over seems like the right way to go. The moneyline and spread projections are quite a bit tougher.

Historically speaking, there isn't much of an angle to lean on for this one. According to the Washington Post's Matt Bonesteel, the Patriots are 15-3 against the spread this season, while the Falcons are 12-6. Super Bowl underdogs over the last 14 years, though, are 11-3 against the spread.

A statistical deep dive doesn't help much either, even when looking at both team's strengths. 

A note by ESPN.com's Mike Reiss compares New England's defense to Atlanta's ability to generate yards after the catch: "In the regular season, the Patriots led the NFL by allowing an average of just 4.05 yards after the catch, while the Falcons’ offense was second in the NFL in averaging 6.18 yards after the catch."

Maybe the best way to pick this game, both outright on a moneyline and against the spread, is with the Patriots slipping by via a late score.

With so many numbers looking like the playoff bracket produced the best possible matchup, the most important thing might come down to one word—experience.

The Falcons hardly have any Super Bowl experience on their roster, whereas the Patriots and Brady are a living, breathing dynasty. This disparity could show up on the field when it matters most, and it sure beats simply flipping a coin to try to figure out how this evenly matched game will end.

In a quarterback battle, bettors need to ride with Brady, who knows a thing or two about how to perform on the biggest stage of them all with the world watching.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Falcons 27

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.