
1-Dimensional College Basketball Teams That Will Struggle in March
"Struggle" is a relative term. If a team is in a top-10 position here in the regular season, "struggle" doesn't mean that team is going to lose in the first round of the NIT.
What it could mean, though, is that a certain team's standard of success in the 2016-17 season may soften when the cupcakes disappear from the schedule and the action tightens up.
Why would such a thing occur? In the case of these teams, it may occur because their success derives from one specific area. To this point, that specific area may be good enough to mask deficiencies. In March, it may not be.
Let's take a look at some teams whose success seems built on one such phase, and who may be headed for a market correction.
Virginia Cavaliers
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As is typical of the past several seasons, Virginia is looking rock-solid at this time of year. And right on the heels of its midseason surge come the questions.
For all the greatness of the vaunted pack line defense, its offense is anemic. Can the O hold up its end of the equation?
The signs this season are not good.
The three leading scorers from last season's Elite Eight team—Malcolm Brogdon, Anthony Gill and London Perrantes—averaged a combined 43.0 points per game to pace the team's overall mark of 70.9.
This season's top three scorers—Perrantes, Marial Shayok and Devon Hall—are averaging 30.7 points per game, while the team is averaging 69.2. That ranks 268th in the country, per NCAA.com.
When Perrantes or another top performer has a cold night, there isn't much recourse for the Hoos.
South Carolina Gamecocks
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Let us now travel to an area known as KenPom.com.
These rankings have the South Carolina Gamecocks second overall—that includes the whole country—in adjusted defense. But as you may know, defense is only half the story. There is also offense. In that column, SC is ranked 146th. Not what Gamecock fans are looking for.
It's not good. Only three players—P.J. Dozier, Sindarius Thornwell and Duane Notice—score in double figures. As a team, they shoot 42.6 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from deep. They've failed to score 70 or more points on 11 occasions this season. Bad!
Their defense keeps them in games, but is that sustainable? Right now, they are slotted as a No. 6 seed in Joe Lunardi's bracketology projections at ESPN.com. They should start finding more net bottoms of they want to justify that sort of deference.
Kansas Jayhawks
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A lot is made of Kansas' perceived deficiencies on defense. But as Dave Skretta of the Associated Press (via NCAA.com) points out, "the bar is not exactly low" in that regard in Lawrence.
"They're still holding opponents to about 39 percent from the field and showed in wins over Duke, UAB and Georgia they can get after it," Skretta writes.
It's a concern, but doesn't render them one-dimensional, at least not in an absolute context. For that, we look to the Jayhawks' depth.
There's now a detectable pulse on Landen Lucas, but his scoring is still streaky. His 13 points were crucial against Kentucky, but his two points against West Virginia and five points against Baylor were not what any KU fan wanted to see.
Their frontcourt got even thinner recently when forward Carlton Bragg and his 15 minutes per game were suspended indefinitely after drug paraphernalia charges.
And that was before head coach Bill Self raised eyebrows by only playing seven players at certain times this season.
Kansas' Big Three of Josh Jackson, Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham average 49.4—or 58.9 percent—of the Jayhawks' 83.8 points per game. That's an imbalance. The imbalance also rears its head on defense, where the thin post has difficulty keeping offenses honest, particularly on nights when Jackson finds himself in foul trouble.
The bottom line: This year Kansas will live and die with three players. They are great players, but another dimension would be nice when spring begins.
UCLA Bruins
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All right, just simmer down.
I know you like Lonzo Ball. I know you like the UCLA Bruins and their whole free-swinging, free-shooting, free-dribbling attitude. All they want to do is give you a fresh SportsCenter highlight each and every time down the court, and you respect that.
But that's the problem. When you're this unconcerned with defense, you might be heading for trouble.
Let us now return to the almighty KenPom rankings for the full story. The Bruins are first in the nation in adjusted offense and 132nd in adjusted defense. It's amazing how many clean looks their opponents get.
When the Bruins offense has an off night, as it did recently in their 84-76 upset loss to USC, they are a proverbial duck on the pond. Sorry, but it's the truth. Their defense, which gives up a 280th-in-the-nation 77 points per game, means they have to get 80 points to win.
That's not easy in college basketball, even for an offense like this.
All statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

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