UFC on Fox 23: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
There's a lot of pop in this little main card.
UFC on Fox 23, going down this Saturday from Denver, isn't getting the same run as most other Fox cards. It's not getting the same run as the last Fox card, which featured Paige VanZant. And it's not getting the same run as a pay-per-view.
Be careful about overlooking this one, though. The four-fight main show on "big Fox" features at its head a title eliminator between the two highest-ranked women's bantamweights in the company. Valentina Shevchenko and Julianna Pena are both exciting fighters with interesting games, and their main event is a favorite for Fight of the Night.
It would be even more of a favorite if it weren't for the co-main event. Donald Cerrone and Jorge Masvidal are both great fighters capable of violence. You better watch out for Masvidal, who appears fully motivated for this one based on his stated desire to, you know, break Cerrone's face.
Get up to speed with those two contests and more with our B/R MMA staff predictions team. Revel in our breakdowns, or just laugh at our wild picks. Steven Rondina. Craig Amos. Nathan McCarter. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight
1 of 4
Craig Amos
Picking an Alex Caceres fight is never simple. He looks great and harmless in turns, and it's usually difficult to foresee which is coming. Jason Knight has the strength to control Caceres, which will be key, and he also has the grappling chops to maintain that control. I envision Caceres posing some threats throughout the match but never being able to notch the stoppage.
Knight, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Caceres is the division's true measuring stick, and that makes this more a question of whether Knight is up to scratch. Wins over Jim Alers and Dan Hooker aren't enough to convince me that he is.
Caceres, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I'm not sold on Knight as a contender but rather as a staple in the division who can produce exciting fights. Caceres can get caught up in wild exchanges, but he's also shown the ability to fight tactically. If he relies on that in this fight, he should be able to touch up Knight in a decision victory.
Caceres, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Knight has nothing to lose, and that makes him dangerous. You know what else makes him dangerous? His sharp power boxing game. Knight should use his fists or his wrestling to put Caceres on the ground more than once, and that's how he'll win it.
Knight, unanimous decision
Andrei Arlovski vs. Francis Ngannou
2 of 4
Amos
Given how big of a favorite he is, it's safe to say Francis Ngannou is a secret no longer. He's the best new arrival the UFC heavyweight division has seen in some time, and he'll solidify that status by dispatching one of its best-known journeymen. Whether standing or on the mat, Ngannou will eventually knock Andrei Arlovski out.
Ngannou, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina
You can't ever count Arlovski out. One backfist, knee or punch to the back of the head lands? It's done. I've been aboard the Ngannou train since I first saw him in all his dreadlocked glory at the UFC on Fox 17 weigh-ins, though. The hairdo may have gone. My enthusiasm hasn't.
Ngannou, TKO, Rd. 1
McCarter
This fight is excellent matchmaking. Ngannou is quickly becoming "the guy" in the division, but he still has a lot of holes and is growing as a mixed martial artist. Arlovski has an edge with his submissions and wrestling, but he loves to strike while not having a granite chin. Ngannou lands the huge KO blow early in the fight before Arlovski can turn this into a grind.
Ngannou, KO, Rd. 1
Harris
In pro wrestling parlance, it would seem Arlovski is here to put Ngannou over, the famous but aging lion transferring energy to the rising young buck. There are tougher tests out there for Ngannou, whose grappling doesn't seem to be all that well-developed. But Arlovski's failing chin makes this one Ngannou can pass with flying colors.
Ngannou, KO, Rd. 2
Donald Cerrone vs. Jorge Masvidal
3 of 4
Amos
Masvidal is never an easy win, but I can't see him slowing the welterweight version of Cerrone down. Cowboy has been on a tear, which is not unusual for him when he's not competing for a title, and he will continue his run decisively. I'm more curious to see whether Cerrone gets the stoppage. I'm thinking Masvidal is too tough.
Cerrone, unanimous decision
Rondina
Masvidal is one of the most consistently underrated fighters in MMA, but Cerrone has a distinct stylistic advantage over him. Unless the slow-starter Cerrone of 2012 returns suddenly, he should have this one without too much trouble.
Cerrone, unanimous decision
McCarter
I'm in love with this fight, and I disagree with Steven vehemently that Cerrone holds a distinct stylistic advantage. Masvidal is a solid technical boxer with excellent head movement. Moreover, he attacks the body exceptionally well, which has always been an issue for Cerrone.
I would pick Masvidal to win if he were more consistent, but he gets complacent too often and allows opponents to steal rounds. Once he gives Cerrone time to unload, Cowboy will rack up the points. Masvidal may prove to be too tough an out to finish, but he'll claim all three scorecards.
Cerrone, unanimous decision
Harris
Sound the upset alarms.
When Masvidal is motivated, he's hellish to deal with. He clearly dislikes Cerrone and wants to unmask Cowboy for the lesser talent he thinks Cerrone is.
Cerrone's muay thai (this one's not going to the ground, by the way) is as strong as it's ever been now that he's here at welterweight. But Masvidal is hard to hit cleanly, and his punches will add up over time. Cerrone will grow frustrated, and the momentum will slowly but surely swing to Gamebred.
Masvidal, unanimous decision
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Julianna Pena
4 of 4
Amos
This is a marquee matchup at 135, where Julianna Pena is attempting to enter title talks and Valentina Shevchenko is looking to earn a rematch against the current champion, whom she nearly defeated last year. I like Shevchenko to win the majority of exchanges on the feet and to manage to fend off Pena's pressure. She'll compile the requisite points to win on the scorecards.
Shevchenko, unanimous decision
Rondina
Shevchenko and Pena are both excellent on paper, but Pena's style is much friendlier for the judges. Shevchenko might put on a strong performance and might even do well enough to have some people score it in her favor. Two out of the three judges, though, will give it to Pena.
Pena, split decision
McCarter
Well, here we go. The women's bantamweight title eliminator. And, yes, it is a striker vs. grappler battle. It's as simple as Pena being successful with her takedowns. If she is, she wins. If not, Shevchenko runs away with it on the feet.
I've been critical of Pena since before she stepped foot on The Ultimate Fighter, and she has done well to make me eat crow. Her performance against Cat Zingano was impressive, but I don't think she can sustain that against Shevchenko.
Shevchenko has an underrated grappling game that will prevent Pena from being too successful in that department. On the feet, she's going to school Pena. Barring a swift overhand right from Pena flooring Shevchenko, we're in store for an Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko rematch.
Shevchenko, unanimous decision
Harris
I hate to fall back on the striker-grappler trope. Well, actually, no I don't. It makes my job easier!
Pena is a beast on the ground, and Shevchenko is a muay thai wizard. This one is razor-close, but Pena will get this to the ground, and she'll stifle and punish Shevchenko there. It may be a bit anticlimactic, but it will be a legitimate national coming-out party for a talented, if controversial, figure in Pena.
Pena, unanimous decision
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