Countdown to the Cup: Keeneland Stakes Preview

With the Breeders’ Cup being contested on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface for the second consecutive year (Nov. 6 and 7), synthetic prep races have taken on added importance. Of the eight main track races in last year’s Cup, the victor in six of them made his or her previous start on a synthetic track. The two other winners, Ventura in the Filly & Mare Sprint and European invader Raven’s Pass in the Classic, made their preps on turf. In eight races that are supposed to crown dirt champions for each division, not one Breeders’ Cup winner was coming out of a race on conventional dirt. Expect this trend to continue in 2009, as the connections of top dirt horses have decided to either stay home altogether (Rachel Alexandra, Fabulous Strike, Hot Dixie Chick) or venture out of their comfort zone to test their charges’ affinity for the fake stuff prior to shipping to California. Lexington, Kentucky’s historic Keeneland will host a number of these important preps this weekend on their Polytrack surface. 

Friday, October 9th

Race 8 - $250,000 Phoenix Stakes (G3) - 6 furlongs for 3-year-olds and up

The Phoenix is only a Grade 3, but the winner will automatically secure a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint starting gate as part of the “Win and You’re In” challenge. #7 FATAL BULLET headlines the field and is installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite off his excellent synthetic track form. He has five wins and one second from six starts at the distance on synthetic surfaces (including a runner-up behind Midnight Lute in last year’s BC Sprint) and his top Beyer Speed Figure of 109 is the best one-turn figure in the field. His dismal performance last out in the Vanderbilt can be forgiven because it was on conventional dirt, which he has proven that he despises. #4 CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN is the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, albeit by the justified disqualification of Vineyard Haven last time in the King’s Bishop, but he must prove that his talent on dirt can be translated to synthetics. His only previous Polytrack start was as the favorite in last year’s Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity. He finished a rough-trip second that day only beaten two lengths in a race that did not confirm or deny his affinity for non-dirt surfaces. #6 PAST THE POINT exits the Grade 1 Woodward in which 3-year-old super filly Rachel Alexandra beat older males. He had an excuse for his near 18-length loss in that historic event and turns back to a sprint after showing speed in a route (always a potent angle), but his best efforts have been going longer on the dirt. He has the look of a horse who prefers good ol’ fashioned dirt. $760K earner #8 MY PAL CHARLIE gets the addition of blinkers for the Phoenix and at times has displayed significant ability, but he is another whose successes have come on a more traditional track. #10 SING BABY SING, who upset this race last year at more than 26-1, has a chance to repeat at another healthy price. He is coming into the Phoenix in similar form as he did last year, and could put in an effort that would win this if Fatal Bullet falters and nobody else takes to the surface. 

Race 9 - $500,000 Darley Alcibiades S. (G1) - 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-old fillies

While the Alcibiades is almost inscrutable on paper, it should add some clarity to a puzzling juvenile fillies division that will be without it’s top performer, Grade 1 Spinaway winner Hot Dixie chick, in the year-end championship event. With the Southern California-based contingent providing little in the way of inspiration, the Alcibiades has a very good chance to produce the best 2-year-old filly that will compete on Nov. 6. #4 BEAUTICIAN has been unlucky in her last two starts, as she had to settle for runner-up honors behind Hot Dixie Chick in the Grade 3 Schuylerville and Spinaway. In any other year, Beautician would probably already be a multiple graded stakes winner. If she takes to the Polytrack, which is difficult to predict and probably worth playing against from a wagering standpoint considering her expected price, Beautician should win this. #3 SHE BE WILD doesn’t have to prove herself on Polytrack, where she is 3-for-3, but she must reproduce her impressive wins at Arlington against better competition than the Grade 3 field she faced last out in the Arlington-Washington Lassie. #5 NEGLIGEE will make her first start for trainer John Terranova while stretching-out after a pair of decent efforts in Canada. Terranova is 0-for-5 over the past five years (a small sample size) with new acquisitions going from sprints to routes, but Negligee appears to be training forwardly and should appreciate the added ground. #9 AMEN HALLELUJAH also makes her first start for a new trainer (Rick Dutrow Jr.) after a private purchase by IEAH following a five-length romp in an optional claimer last out at for Steve Asmussen at Arlington. Her 94 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort is the highest in the field, but it remains to be seen if she can stretch that ability around two turns against much better competition. #10 KID KATE is 2-for-2 in sloppy, off-the-turf races including a stakes win last time at Monmouth, but neither of her performances were particularly fast. Her pedigree suggests turf, which is often a sign of an affinity for synthetic surfaces. Recent maiden winner #7 ZILVA has an upset chance at a big price. While her debut on Presque Isle’s Tapeta track doesn’t look like much on paper, her late kick in that race was so strong that she galloped out past her rivals by a Secretariat-like margin. Her maiden-breaking effort last out on turf at Saratoga was a game one even though it wasn’t overpowering. She deserves a serious look at what should be well over 10-1. 

Saturday, October 10th

Race 8 - $500,000 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1) - 1 1/16 miles for 2-year-olds

If the Alcibiades is inscrutable, then the Breeders’ Futurity is impossible. This full field of 14 (with two also eligibles) is full of questions waiting to be answered. #2 BACKTALK is the most accomplished runner in the field and the favorite at 4-1 (further highlighting how wide-open the race is). The Tom Amoss-trained son of Smarty Jones is 3-for-4 with Grade 3 and Grade 2 wins to his credit, but he has never run particularly fast and flattened out a bit in the lane last time after making a sharp, wide move in his first start at seven furlongs. He is unproven going this long and on Polytrack, but his bullet six-furlong work at Keeneland on October 5th could indicate that he is coming into the race well and might like the surface. He isn’t impossible, but isn’t really any better than his competition and will be a shorter price. #8 AIKENITE ran a nice third in the Grade 1 Hopeful last out at Saratoga, breaking slowly and rallying down the center of the track late. He should have no problem with the added ground assuming he takes to the Polytrack. #1 DIXIE BAND already has a route win over Polytrack, but his Beyer Speed Figure in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity was lower than it will take to win this. Chances are that somebody else will step up and run a better race than he is capable of running. #7 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is still winless in his three-race career, but two of those defeats came at the hands of California’s leading juvenile colt, Lookin At Lucky. Make Music for Me might finally break through the maiden ranks without the presence of his rival. #6 NOBLE’S PROMISE took a $100K stakes race sprinting last time at Presque Isle by more than three lengths and his trainer Ken McPeek boasts impressive numbers with stretch-out runners. McPeek trainees have won at a 26% clip with a $2.86 ROI over the past five years moving from sprints to routes on synthetic surfaces. The quick turn-around of only two weeks for Noble’s Promise will be his biggest obstacle to overcome. Of the number of recent maiden-breakers in the field, #14 STATELY VICTOR might be the most talented runner of them all. He debuted sprinting on the dirt and turned in a fast-closing second for a trainer, Michael Maker, not known for having his runners fully-cranked at first asking. He then displayed a devastating late kick in his second-out maiden breaker at the distance of the Futurity on turf at Saratoga on Sept. 5, and any improvement off of that performance should put him right there at the wire assuming Julien Leparoux can avoid getting his mount hung wide from post 14.

Sunday, October 11th

Race 9 - $500,000 Juddmonte Spinster S. (G1) - 1 1/8 miles for fillies & mares 3-years-old and up

While the Spinster was supposed to be brilliant Grade 1 Personal Ensign winner Icon Project’s synthetic test for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, a reported injury last weekend has sidelined her indefinitely and possibly forever. #8 SWIFT TEMPER, who traded decisions with Icon Project over the summer, now headlines the accomplished field of 11. Swift Temper is coming off a win in the Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap over heavily favored Seventh Street and has proven the best horse of the group on dirt. The only problem is, of course, that this race isn’t on dirt. Her few synthetic and turf starts were some of the worst of her career, so don’t expect her to show up with one of her better efforts at Keeneland. #7 GINGER BREW has four wins and one second from five prior starts on Woodbine’s Polytrack. Those efforts were against lesser than she will face on Sunday, but at least she is a proven commodity on synthetics. There appears to be an abundance of early speed in the Spinster, so jockey John Velazquez would be best served taking back early and rating behind the pacesetters. #10 INDESCRIBABLE, a three-time Grade 3 winner on Polytrack, returned to her winning ways last time at Turfway Park following three drubbings on grass. Her recent speed figures are a little low, but her late-running style and record on synthetic surfaces make her a contender. Six runners in the field are coming out of races on turf in what seems like their connections’ attempts to determine if they are viable candidates for the Ladies’ Classic. #4 PROVISO is one of the most intriguing of the sextet in her first North American start for the ailing Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel and international powerhouse Juddmonte Farms. She is twice Group 1-placed in France and Great Britain and has won a couple of Group 3 events. She merits a long look assuming she’s somewhere in the 6-1 range or better. #11 MUSHKA’s career best Beyer Speed Figure (101) was earned on this track and at this distance. If she can reproduce that performance then she has a big chance. #3 DAWN AFTER DAWN’s third-place run two-back behind division leader Zenyatta in the Grade 1 Vanity H. places her in the hunt here, but she must prove that that run was an accurate representation of her talent and not simply an aberration. It was much better than her other main track performances.