NFL Playoff Odds 2017: Vegas Picks and Predictions Ahead of Divisional Round

Kristopher KnoxJan 9, 2017

The 2016-17 NFL postseason began with 12 teams still alive in the race for Super Bowl LI. Now that Wild Card Weekend is officially in the books, we're down to eight teams with a chance of becoming champions.

Over the weekend, the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers earned their tickets to the divisional round. Meanwhile, the Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and New York Giants were sent home.

For the first group of teams here, the dream of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy remains alive.

Divisional Round

Day, Time (ET)	Game	Line	Prediction
Sat. 4:35 p.m.	Seattle at Atlanta	ATL -4.5	ATL
Sat. 8:15 p.m.	Houston at New England	NE -16	NE
Sun. 1:05 p.m.	Pittsburgh at Kansas City	KC -1	KC
Sun. 4:40 p.m.	Green Bay at Dallas	DAL -4	GB

The Games

Seattle at Atlanta

One interesting aspect of the divisional round is the fact all four games are rematches of games that took place during the regular season.

The last time the Seahawks faced the Atlanta Falcons, Seattle came away with a 26-24 victory at home. This close outcome is part of the reason why we believe the Falcons can win the rematch in Atlanta. Another piece of the puzzle is the fact that the Falcons have figured out how to use all of the weapons at their disposal on offense.

Star receiver Julio Jones missed two of the team's final four games and didn't seem to be at 100 percent at all in the final month. All the Falcons did was average 38.5 points per game and win four in a row.

This is a more dangerous offense than the one that might have been a missed pass interference call away from winning in Seattle back in Week 6. It's not going to help that the Seahawks are missing star safety Earl Thomas.

The one counter for Seattle is the resurgence of the Seahawks' rushing attack. The ground attack came alive this past weekend, as running back Thomas Rawls rushed for 161 yards and a score against the Lions. This could create a huge mismatch against an Atlanta run defense that is rated just 28th by Pro Football Focus.

If Seattle is going to have a chance in this game, the offense needs to keep Matt Ryan off the field and keep pressure off of Russell Wilson.

Atlanta's improving pass rush produced a respectable 34 sacks in the regular season. No team is rated lower in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus than the Seahawks.

Houston at New England

The Texans managed to knock off the Connor Cook-led Raiders on Saturday, and they did so in pretty dominant fashion. The Texans defense smothered the Oakland offense for much of the game, while Brock Osweiler and Co. did enough on offense to produce a 27-14 victory.

Texans head coach Bill O'Brien has made it clear that Osweiler will be back under center next weekend against the New England Patriots.

"I thought [Osweiler] had a good game," O'Brien said, per Sarah Barshop of ESPN.com. "He took care of the ball, he executed the game plan. Basically, he spread the ball around; I'm not sure how many receivers caught passes, but it looked good to me."

To be perfectly fair, though, Osweiler's day wasn't that impressive. He completed just 56 percent of his passes for 168 yards with a passing touchdown and a rushing score. This came against a Raiders defense that is rated 15th overall by Pro Football Focus.

New England is rated fourth in overall defense by Pro Football Focus and allowed the fewest points per game (15.6) in the NFL during the regular season.

For as good as the Texans defense is, that side of the ball is also likely to have its hands full with the Patriots. Tom Brady has been downright lethal this season, passing for 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

We're just not sure the Texans are good enough on either side of the ball to match points with the Patriots for four full quarters. The last time the two teams met, the Patriots had rookie Jacoby Brissett under center—and they still dominated that game 27-0.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

The last time the Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs faced off, the game resulted in a blowout 43-14 win for the Steelers. However, that game was early in the season (Week 4), before the Chiefs began to fully realize their offensive potential with guys like Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley complementing the usual producers—Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin.

In the first month of the season, the Chiefs averaged just 20.7 points per game. Over the final three months of the season, the Chiefs averaged 25.5 points per game.

This is why we believe the Chiefs will have a better chance of keeping pace on the scoreboard in this game. Add in the seventh-ranked scoring defense (19.4 points per game allowed) and home-field advantage, and it feels right to consider the Chiefs slight favorites here.

In addition, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered an ankle injury late in Sunday's win over the Dolphins.

"You're always worried about being hurt, but I'll be out there next week," Roethlisberger stated, per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com.

Big Ben probably isn't at risk of missing the game, but he could be limited in terms of mobility. This could give a slight advantage to the Chiefs defense. While Roethlisberger is more of a sliding-pocket quarterback than a scrambler, his ability to extend plays is a great asset.

Another reason why we're going with the Chiefs here is the fact that the team has had two weeks to prepare and to get healthy. Head coach Andy Reid typically uses his bye weeks to great effect, and he may again this postseason.

Regardless of how the game pans out, these are two of the hottest teams in the AFC right now, and the game should be a tremendous one.

Green Bay at Dallas

The game between the Packers and the Dallas Cowboys could end up being the most entertaining of the weekend. The Cowboys finished the regular season with the best record in the NFC, while the Packers finished the regular season with six consecutive wins.

Green Bay won its seventh consecutive game on Sunday over the Giants in a 38-13 rout.

Unfortunately, the Packers also saw wide receiver Jordy Nelson and wideout/running back Ty Montgomery exit the game with injuries and not return.

If Nelson and Montgomery cannot go, it would give the Cowboys a big advantage on defense—where the team is rated 20th overall by Pro Football Focus. However, we're still going to give the Packers a slight edge here for a couple of reasons.

The first is the momentum the team has gathered and the efficiency with which quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing. During the team's seven-game winning streak, the Packers have averaged 31.8 points per game while allowing just 17.8 points defensively.

Rodgers has tossed 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions in that span.

The other reason is that the Packers field a run defense that is rated seventh overall by Pro Football Focus. If the Cowboys are forced into a shootout with the Packers, they're going to have to rely heavily on Dak Prescott. While the rookie quarterback has proven quite capable, this will be his first NFL playoff game, and the pressure will be huge.

Now, you'll probably point to the fact that Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards the last time these two teams met. However, it's worth noting that the Packers offense was very much out of sync, and the Cowboys got out to an early lead and were able to lean on the run to close out the game.

If history repeats itself, then Elliott can likely have another big day, and the Cowboys can milk out another win. If the Packers play better offensively—and the team has done exactly that over the past month of the season—leaning on Elliott might not be an option.

If it does turn into a quarterback showdown, we'll take Rodgers over the impressive but far less experienced Prescott.