MMA Bold Predictions for 2017: What's Next for Rousey, McGregor, Jones and UFC?
Count 2016 as a pivotal year in UFC history.
For starters, longtime majority owners Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta sold the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion to WME-IMG for an eye-popping $4 billion-plus in July. That was kind of a big deal.
Aside from UFC President Dana White, the Fertitta brothers played arguably the most influential roles in weaving the fabric of modern MMA in America. With them out and honchos from the Hollywood super talent agency in, we've passed to the next era.
The change of ownership came with a slew of layoffs and high-profile shifts in the UFC front office. Among other well-known UFC employees, matchmaker Joe Silva and play-by-play announcer Mike Goldberg both left the organization.
We also witnessed the solidification of Conor McGregor as the UFC's biggest star, the fall of Ronda Rousey and a significant year for the company on pay-per-view. Titles changed hands in seven weight classes.
By the time it was all over, the UFC had completed what could turn out to be its most financially successful year.
Now, what will 2017 bring?
It's impossible to say for sure, but here a number of Bleacher Report's MMA writers join me to try to look into the future and forecast what the year will bring for some of the UFC's biggest stars…
Prediction: Dana White's Wild Run as UFC President Comes to a Close
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It was no accident when, early during the UFC's rise, Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta opted to make Dana White the public face of their rags-to-riches MMA company.
Choosing to prop up White as the UFC's biggest star—over, say, any of its fighters—was ostentatious but also brilliant. The outspoken former fighter manager and part-time boxercise instructor fell easily into the role of media maven. As the fighters he promoted lost, got old or just faded from view, White remained constant.
If the old sports cliche dictates that teams often take on the personalities of their coaches, the UFC seems to be a reflection of White's brash, often profanity-laced encounters with the press. If the company's aim was to kick down the door of mainstream acceptance, swagger in and make itself at home, then for many years White was the right person to lead the UFC's charge.
Unfortunately, that charge will end in 2017.
It's worth noting that White made an estimated $360 million when WME-IMG bought the UFC from the Fertittas last year. He also inked a new five-year contract, assumedly to help the new owners come to a full understanding of the fight business as the UFC continues to grow into a worldwide juggernaut.
WME-IMG began cleaning house immediately following the sale, announcing multiple rounds of layoffs at the UFC's home office in Las Vegas and internationally. Other high-profile faces like matchmaker Joe Silva and longtime play-by-play announcer Mike Goldberg also left the company.
With his pockets now lined beyond his wildest dreams and the corporate culture changing inside the UFC, sometime this year White will decide his work there is done—new contract be damned.
He's already won the game, after all. He helped build the UFC from a down-and-out curiosity into an established mainstream sports brand. He'll figure the breakneck travel schedule, the media obligations and the sticking-his-nose-between-angry-fighters-during-weigh-ins isn't for him anymore.
It'll happen more quietly than we ever thought possible. The transition will be more seamless than we ever imagined. But at some point during 2017, White will take his millions and mosey back to Las Vegas, much to the joy of blackjack dealers and artificial snow providers everywhere.
—Chad Dundas
Prediction: Ronda Rousey Comes Roaring Back in 2017
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On Twitter this week I got into it (NSFW language) with NFL Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe, now a television talking head of the most noxious sort. I'm not especially proud of that, but it's the brand-new world we live in, one where purveyors of professional "Hot Takes" suddenly have opinions about mixed martial arts.
It's a world Ronda Rousey created, revolving around her personal magnetism and brand. Rousey, more than anyone in UFC history, dragged this sport out of the shadows and into the light.
We could argue for years about whether that's a good thing, about whether Rousey was ever that good at all. I'm certain, in fact, that we will. Either way, one thing is beyond dispute: Rousey has been the face of women's MMA since Gina Carano departed stage left for the movies more than seven years ago.
The UFC promotes women's MMA because it saw dollar signs in Rousey, not out of a commitment to social justice or equality. Someone needs to replace her—and fast. Women's MMA is in crisis mode. Not everyone in the sport realizes this. But, over time, as the fights slip further and further down the card and title bouts are relegated to television main events or used as supporting acts, they will.
Creating new stars is hard, especially with the UFC's matchmaking style, which forces promising fighters to compete with the best of the best. The result is superhuman fighters too often looking mortal. Recycling old ones is much easier. And that's why, by the end of the year, Rousey will return to action, either to reclaim her throne or, once again, crash to earth, exposed as human for a third time in as many tries.
No one can know for sure what's in Rousey's head. She's made certain of that. That's what makes this a bold prediction and not a bold fact. But the potential is there for the ultimate redemption story, for Rousey to reinvent herself like Rocky Balboa. Perhaps she could even find her way to New Mexico, heading to the enemy's home camp the way Rocky did, searching for a new path with Holly Holm's svengali, Greg Jackson, and striking maestros Mike Winkeljohn and Brandon Gibson.
Wouldn't that be something?
More than that, there is money. Piles of it. In the world of combat sports, fighters aren't done until the audience says they are. And, in the case of Rousey, there is so much more story to tell.
—Jonathan Snowden
Prediction: The UFC Struggles on Pay-Per-View in 2017
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Despite its presence on television through Fox and Fox Sports 1 and a plethora of international rights deals and Fight Pass, its increasingly important online platform, the UFC's core business is still getting viewers to fork over $60 for bouts on pay-per-view.
After a disastrous 2014 that saw the UFC sell only 3.2 million pay-per-views—a little over half of what it had done in 2013 and its lowest total since 2005—the promotion rebounded big time in 2015 and 2016. Six of the seven top-selling events in UFC history have taken place in the last two years.
Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor drove that resurgence, forming a two-headed monster that accounted for the lion's share of the UFC's business. Prior to UFC 205 and 207, in 2015 and 2016 the two fighters had accounted for 56 percent of the total sales while headlining fewer than a third of the cards. They averaged more than 1.1 million buys per outing, while all other headliners notched just over 400,000.
With Rousey suffering her second consecutive loss at UFC 207 and McGregor publicly declaring his desire to take time off, 2017 has the makings of a rough year for the UFC's pay-per-view business.
To make matters worse, the other fighters the company might rely on to carry the promotional load won't be present at least for the beginning of the year. Jon Jones is suspended until July, the result of a failed drug test that led to his being pulled from his UFC 200 bout with Daniel Cormier.
Nate Diaz, who emerged from his two fights with McGregor as a huge name to watch, has made it clear that he won't get out of bed for anything less than a substantial pay raise, per MMA Fighting's Ariel Helwani. His brother Nick is likewise a legitimate draw and has been cleared to return following the godawful suspension the Nevada State Athletic Commission levied on him, but he doesn't yet have a fight booked.
If Rousey doesn't return, there isn't much left in the way of drawing power on the women's side. Miesha Tate has retired, while much of the shine that the Rousey win left on Holly Holm has rubbed off following a pair of consecutive losses.
Perhaps new stars (Cody Garbrandt? Khabib Nurmagomedov? Alexa Grasso?) will emerge to fill the holes left by these losses and absences, but if they don't, the UFC's pay-per-view product is bound to struggle in 2017.
All pay-per-view numbers courtesy of MMAPayout.com and compiled by Dave Meltzer of Wrestling Observer. All analysis of those numbers can be found here.
—Patrick Wyman
Prediction: Jon Jones Ends 2017 as Heavyweight Champion
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Jon Jones, who is serving a one-year suspension for a failed drug test, is eligible to return in July. Barring injury, that permits him two, possibly three, fights before the end of 2017.
Though Jones was absolved of any perfidy for the failed test, UFC figurehead Dana White told Sirius XM's Jim Rome (via MMA Fighting's Dave Doyle) the troubled phenom has grown too unreliable to headline fight cards. So it looks like Jones will toil away on Fight Pass from here on.
But that's only if you believe White, whose comments typically have but a casual relationship with the truth. It's far more likely that any punitive measure the UFC levies will be confined to one perfunctory outing, and that probably means a co-main event for Jones. Oh, the shame!
Jones is too talented and valuable for the UFC to spite him in any meaningful way. The last time he came back from a suspension, it shoehorned an interim title into play just to set up a champion vs. champion rematch with Daniel Cormier.
It's doubtful the promotion has lost its appetite for that bout. It's equally likely its execs wouldn't salivate at the prospect of a Jones vs. Anthony Johnson outing, should the latter possess the title come July. Regardless of what White blusters, Jones isn't far from challenging for the light heavyweight title.
And he isn't too far from challenging for the heavyweight title either.
Jones likes redemption narratives in which he is the protagonist. Each entry in his litany of missteps is bookended by assertions of growth and humility. When faced with adversity, Jones promises to emerge from the nefarious circumstances that conspired to damage his good name and be a better person for having faced his demons. In this case, though, the platitude will play out perfectly.
Unlike past issues that besmirched his name, the latest failed drug test is a blot on Jones' fighting career. It calls into question his accomplishments, not his character. This time, the redemption narrative Jones loves so much needs to be written inside the Octagon, and that's a place where he has authored some of MMA's most vaunted scripts.
Recapturing the light heavyweight strap will only be chapter one of his redemption. Conor McGregor's multidivision reign has raised fan expectation to where restoring the status quo is inadequate. This time Jones needs to make history. And he's plenty capable.
Stipe Miocic has established himself as a credible heavyweight champion, but with the exception of the oft-injured Cain Velasquez, his challengers range from middling to inconsistent to rehashed. There is no immovable backlog deterring Jones from making the jump, and UFC management couldn't sign off on the historic bout quickly enough.
The opportunity is there. The motivation is there. The talent is there. The stars have aligned, and in 2017, Jones will capture both the light heavyweight and heavyweight titles.
—Craig Amos
Prediction: New UFC Owners Slash Number of Events, Leading to Better Product
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This year really means it. This year, MMA fans finally say goodbye to the runaway treadmill that is the UFC's hyper-loaded event schedule.
Ever since the gleam of world conquest first sparkled in the eye of the UFC brain trust, the company has flown forward with Valkyrian aggression. There were 45 UFC events in 2014. In 2015 and 2016, it was 41 apiece. It's not so hard to decipher. There were a lot of mouths to feed, what with the Fox/FS1 TV deal and UFC Fight Pass and the aforementioned globalization.
It's just that it got tedious along the way.
All the causes and effects have been widely discussed, so there's no burning need to rehash them in detail. But suffice it to say diminishing returns in the cards were noticeable, with those slates sometimes coming back to back on a single weekend or even day. Quantity goes up, quality goes down. It's Econ 101.
Fans and pundits have called for cutbacks. Under the previous regime, the calls fell on tin ears. But now that the new UFC brass seems to be looking for the same thing—and has scaled back staffing in more than one overseas bureau—the idea has traction, especially when you look at the promotion's roster, littered with smaller names not in keeping with the UFC's brand as the sport's gold standard.
The promotion hasn't released a 2017 blueprint yet. But when or if it does, or as the year unfolds, that lineup will be thinner than in years past. And that's something that should be gratifying to anyone who has a life outside watching MMA or remembers what that once may have looked like.
—Scott Harris
Prediction: McGregor-Diaz III Takes Place & Sets Record with 2 Million PPV Buys
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As we begin 2017, Conor McGregor's future remains brimming with possibilities. He'll take time off for the birth of his first child, and shortly after that, he should return. Though he hasn't publicly voiced a preference for his next foe, my money is on a third fight with Nate Diaz.
After setting the fight world afire with a combined total of around 3 million pay-per-view buys for their two bouts, according to Wrestling Observer's Dave Meltzer (via MMA Payout), McGregor and Diaz understand they make magic together. The fact that the two silently conspired to meet up the second time despite UFC management's initial objections shows that.
McGregor understands the business of fighting better than almost anyone who's ever competed. He also understands he needs a willing, able partner to launch a mega-event. After knocking out Eddie Alvarez to capture a second UFC championship, McGregor has no other ready-made, cash-generating foe. He could go back down to featherweight and try to reclaim his stripped belt, but he's already seen as the rightful champion there.
Against Diaz, there is unfinished business. A 1-1 split is not decisive. And how much more meaningful would a rubber match be if it included the UFC lightweight belt?
Given the intensity of the rivalry, the time off to refresh themselves and the prospect of ultimate bragging rights, expect these two to unleash a new level of verbal and psychological warfare that will captivate the public and draw upward of 2 million pay-per-view buys, a number that will shatter UFC 205's MMA record and vault McGregor further up the list of all-time combat sports legends.
—Mike Chiappetta
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