UFC 207: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
At long last, Ronda Rousey is back—and boy, does she look scary. But what about the UFC women's bantamweight champion, Amanda Nunes? Just look at the state she left Miesha Tate in at UFC 200.
This is a battle between two of the best finishers in women's MMA, and it has a solid lineup of fights behind it. Here is the full UFC 207 main card:
- Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg
- Dong Hyun Kim vs. Tarec Saffiedine
- TJ Dillashaw vs. John Lineker
- Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt
- Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey
Naturally, the Bleacher Report MMA predictions crew is here to break down the fights and give its predictions. Who will have their hands raised, and how will the matches unfold? Read on and find out!
Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg
1 of 5
Nathan McCarter
Louis Smolka was riding high and got overconfident in his last bout. Now, he starts over again. The loss to Brandon Moreno will turn out to be a good thing against another talented fighter in Ray Borg. Smolka proves to be more patient and takes a narrow decision victory.
Smolka, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Borg missed weight, suggesting he won't be 100 percent for Friday. Smolka will not lack for motivation, having lost an upset to Moreno in his last fight to snap a four-fight win streak. The Hawaiian will use length and athleticism to overwhelm the Borg.
Smolka, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
This one is tough to call and should play out as a close contest. Smolka has more tools, and so long as he can avoid the submission, it's his fight to lose. I look forward to some fun grappling exchanges between the two.
Smolka, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Borg is good, but Smolka is a legitimate top-five-caliber flyweight, even coming off a loss. He'll send a strong reminder to his constituents here.
Smolka, submission, Rd. 2
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Tarec Saffiedine
2 of 5
McCarter
Dong Hyun Kim is the superior fighter in this one, but he's not likely to finish. Tarec Saffiedine can lace in some good leg kicks and has deceptive power, but Kim's clinch game will nullify most of his work. It'll be a slow go of it, but Kim gets the decision.
Kim, unanimous decision
Harris
It's great to see "the original" Dong Hyun Kim—you know, the Stun Gun one—back in the Octagon. He'll go wild for a little while but will use his judo when it matters most to wrap up Saffiedine's kicking game.
Kim, unanimous decision
Amos
As Nathan said, Kim is the better fighter. The concern is that he sometimes falls in love with exchanging strikes and forgets about the grappling edge he holds over most opponents. That will open the door for Saffiedine to score some connections, but his lack of power will limit his potential to take advantage. Eventually, Kim starts doing what he needs to do in order to secure the W.
Kim, unanimous decision
Rondina
I'd disagree with the notion that Stun Gun is the straight-up better fighter, but he's definitely a brutal matchup for the final Strikeforce champ. Saffiedine won't have room for his striking game and will spend most of the fight either pressed against the cage or on his back, eating Captain Kirk-style double ax handles.
Kim, unanimous decision
TJ Dillashaw vs. John Lineker
3 of 5
McCarter
This is similar to the title fight in the division at UFC 207: a power striker who has more than a puncher's chance but against someone who's probably the worst stylistic matchup for them. TJ Dillashaw won't play with John Lineker's power. He'll use his footwork and movement to get Lineker to show an opening and then shoot in. Dillashaw will wrestle his way past Lineker.
Dillashaw, unanimous decision
Harris
I keep betting against Lineker, and I keep getting burned for it. But the buck stops here, says I. Dillashaw has great movement and athleticism and could stay on his metaphorical bicycle for three full rounds, deterring Lineker's charge-ahead power attack. The ex-champ has power of his own as well; as long as it doesn't manifest itself in slugfests, he should be able to use it to good effect.
Dillashaw, unanimous decision
Amos
Lineker has developed a reputation as a brawler, but he's more cerebral than that. He's gotten good at cutting off angles to force exchanges and augments his reach by winging body shots from range. Dillashaw is, of course, a tricky guy to pin down, but Lineker has a good style for it. I'm calling the upset here and going with a Lineker TKO.
Lineker, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Nathan is spot on. Lineker is a good fighter and much better than many believe, but Dillashaw is tailor-made to beat him. Lineker will land some shots, but unless he can chin the former champ cleanly, he'll just spend too much time in disadvantageous positions to take this one on the scorecards.
Dillashaw, unanimous decision
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Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt
4 of 5
McCarter
There is a feeling in the pit of my stomach that is telling me to pick Garbrandt. He's not better than Cruz, but he's definitely got the power to ice the champ. I just can't let my gut pick this one. My brain is all-in on The Dominator. Too much movement, too much wrestling, too much precision. Cruz will simply be too much.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Harris
Cruz is so far into Garbrandt's head that they're sharing mucous glands. Garbrandt, a knockout artist, is going to come out like a house of fire. Cruz, the greatest fighter this side of Demetrious Johnson and Cyborg Justino in MMA right now, will be waiting with his inimitable movement and precision boxing.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Amos
If this were a classic strength-versus-speed juxtaposition, the temptation to pick Garbrandt would be hard to ignore. But Cruz also has experience, intelligence and versatility on his side. With a guy like Garbrandt, the chance for a knockout is always there. This time, though, the chance isn't too great.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Rondina
Garbrandt is the future of the division, but Cruz is the present. The champ will juke Garbrandt out of his trunks and outland him en route to the judges.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey
5 of 5
McCarter
We will see vintage Ronda Rousey. Amanda Nunes is a powerful striker, but she doesn't have the same style that gave Rousey fits against Holly Holm. She is certainly capable of winning this fight and even finishing Rousey violently, but her aggression will be used against her. Rousey will go back to the clinch, toss, submit blueprint that proved to be formidable. Rousey doesn't want to be embarrassed again. She won't rush forward recklessly. Rousey waits for Nunes to close the distance, and then it's over.
Rousey, submission, Rd. 1
Harris
It's not hard to see this fight going either way. It's hard to imagine a lesser-known quantity at this level than Rousey. Still, she only has one loss. Sheer force of inertia still leans one toward a familiar outcome.
Rousey, submission, Rd. 1
Amos
Obviously, the outcome of this contest depends in large part on the version of Rousey that shows up. If she's on point, Rousey presents a tough stylistic matchup for Nunes, who is in danger of bullying her way into close quarters, where Rousey shines. Eventually, the throws will result in a classic armbar submission.
Rousey, submission, Rd. 3
Rondina
The funny thing about the "Rousey's broken after losing" narrative is that Rousey has lost plenty of times. She walked out of the 2004 Olympic Games empty-handed. She lost at the 2006 Pan-American Championships and the 2007 World Judo Championships. Heck, she lost at the 2008 Olympic Games. But how did her judo career end? With her winning and walking out of Beijing with a medal around her neck.
Like her or not, Rousey historically comes back from adversity stronger. UFC 207 will be the latest example of that pattern.
Rousey, submission, Rd. 2
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