UFC 207 Primer: Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Back in June 2015, Fabricio Werdum squared off against Cain Velasquez in Mexico City for the undisputed heavyweight title. Now the pair are set to square off again, this time as part of the UFC 207 main card.
Things are a little different this time around. Whereas both men entered the first battle with a claim on a championship title, both now stand as aspiring contenders, fighting to recapture their lost status.
After defeating Velasquez last year, Werdum quickly surrendered his title to Stipe Miocic. He then managed to bounce back by outclassing Travis Browne, setting himself up for a rematch with Velasquez.
Since suffering that surprising loss to Werdum, Velasquez took his turn to beat up Browne and now finds himself staring at a chance for redemption. Werdum is the only man holding an unavenged loss over Velasquez, so the contest offers him the chance to even the score.
But the import of the bout stretches beyond Velasquez's redemption narrative. Both he and Werdum stand among the best fighters in a shallow heavyweight division, making the bout an important moment for determining the division's next title contender.
In anticipation of the December 30 contest, Bleacher Report looks at how Werdum and Velasquez match up, examining where each fighter finds an advantage and who is more likely to pull out the victory.
Striking
1 of 5
Velasquez is one of the most active strikers in the UFC, which you might note, is atypical of a heavyweight competitor. But that quality is perhaps Velasquez's defining trait and what separates him from most of his heavyweight colleagues.
Velasquez's striking from range is adequate, but he shines with dirty boxing and ground-and-pound. His strikes are not momentous deathblows, but the volume and velocity with which he operates has overwhelmed numerous opponents.
Werdum is an active striker in his own right, but his output looks lethargic next to Velasquez's. While the Brazilian connects 3.44 times per minute, Velasquez lands 6.38 shots, according to FightMetric. But that's just one metric.
After spending the majority of his career as a one-dimensional submission ace, Werdum developed into a feared muay thai practitioner. Such growth is rarely seen from fighters in their mid-30s, but Werdum, now 39, has been competing at the highest level the division offers for the past few years.
The improvements have been obvious in his performance, including his previous dismantling of Velasquez. Until shown otherwise, there is no reason not to think Werdum won't once again hold an edge in the striking theater, even accounting for his output disadvantage.
Edge: Werdum
Grappling
2 of 5
Both fighters are excellent grapplers but possess unique strengths. As a jiu-jitsu ace, Werdum is able to escape dicey situations and swap a bad position for a good one. Velasquez is all about control. He's found loads of success by claiming top position and beating people up from there.
If we're separating submissions from grappling (and we are because submissions are coming up next slide), it's difficult not to lean Velasquez's way. He exercises good control, makes use of advantageous positions and is, like Werdum, able to avoid many bad spots. But he also has an edge in determining whether the fight hits the mat in the first place.
Velasquez owns a 45 percent takedown success rate, according to FightMetric. That's a solid mark, but it looks all the more impressive when you consider he scores over five takedowns per 15-minute period. His defense is likewise superb, at 85 percent.
Werdum's takedown metrics are middling, with both his offensive and defensive success rates lingering in the low 30s. His porous defense is justifiable because he welcomes opponents to take him down, but offensively, he isn't much of a threat to put Velasquez on his back, even if he did succeed one time in their previous match.
Edge: Velasquez
Submissions
3 of 5
There probably isn't a lot of analysis required for this aspect of the fight. Werdum is one of the world's best jiu-jitsu practitioners and already owns a submission victory over Velasquez. It would be difficult to justify giving Velasquez the edge here.
The American has never shown much interest in finishing his opponents with submissions. In 16 career fights, he has failed to tally a single one. His excellent grappling skills permit him to shut down most submission efforts from his foes, with the sole exception to date being Werdum's guillotine choke.
So while it would be a mistake to interpret Velasquez's zero submissions as some major weakness, don't doubt the popular narrative that Werdum holds an edge here. There's no heavyweight on the UFC roster he wouldn't be given an edge over.
Edge: Werdum
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X-Factors
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Werdum's X-Factor: Accruing damage to body and legs
It was a strange sight to see Velasquez winded when he last fought Werdum. The man unofficially known as "Cardio Cain" owns a reputation for never tiring, and a five-round fight at elevation seemed tailor-made for his success. But by the end of Round 2, Velasquez was struggling. Werdum looked great.
This go-round may play out differently, but Werdum ought to try his best to make the rematch follow a similar path. Whether Werdum will be able to help Velasquez get back to that point of fatigue depends largely on the amount of damage he can do to his opponent's body and limbs.
Those areas should be targets from both range and in the clinch. If Werdum can pile on the connections, he may be able to render Velasquez vulnerable come Round 3.
Velasquez's X-Factor: Winning close-quarter exchanges
Velasquez is an excellent fighter in close quarters and found some success there against Werdum in their last fight. But he also let the Brazilian land some knees in the second round that ranked among the fight's most significant connections.
While Velasquez is too good from in tight to avoid clinching with Werdum outright, he'll need to be defensive-minded at times. Landing short shots, as he is wont to do, will be as important as ever, but Velasquez will need to be wary and avoid the return fire if he hopes to avoid another loss.
Prediction
5 of 5
It's bizarre, isn't it? Not long ago, we watched Werdum convincingly dispose of Velasquez, yet Velasquez enters the contest as a decided favorite.
Some factors have changed from that last tussle, which may explain the sentiment. Velasquez was returning from a year-and-a-half layoff, and the fight was at elevation (which most figured would help Velasquez, but it obviously didn't).
But not much has happened that should skew the common perception of either man's ability. Both took turns battering Travis Browne, and Werdum's loss to Stipe Miocic is not the embarrassing kind of loss. It may have been decisive, but losing to one of the best does not remove Werdum's own status as one of the best.
So is it stubbornness? Or is it that Velasquez is the superior fighter and many people recognize that, despite the first fight's result?
Objectively, it's difficult not to like what Velasquez brings. He's younger, sets a harder pace and has a longer track record of top-tier consistency. But stylistically, Werdum brings the same problems as before—trouble from distance, knees from the clinch and submissions on the mat.
I expect those same tools of Werdum to carry the day, even if Round 2 is overall more competitive. Look for the upset to materialize once again in this outing.
Prediction: Werdum def. Velasquez, unanimous decision
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