Holiday Bowl Betting: Minnesota vs. Washington State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Minnesota snapped a seven-game bowl losing streak with a bowl victory last year, but a short-handed Gophers outfit will have a tough time creating a bowl winning streak when they go against Washington State in the 39th edition of the Holiday Bowl on December 27 in San Diego.

Holiday Bowl point spread: The Cougars opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.3-27.3 Cougars (College football picks on every game)

Why the Minnesota Golden Gophers can cover the spread

Minnesota started 7-2 this year, and the two losses during that span came in overtime against eventual Big Ten champion Penn State and by a fourth-quarter touchdown against Iowa. The Gophers then finished the regular season by losing on a fourth-quarter touchdown against Nebraska, beating Northwestern and falling 31-17 at Big Ten West champion Wisconsin.

Minnesota actually led the Badgers in Madison 17-10 through three quarters before allowing Wisconsin to rally, thanks in part to four interceptions by Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner. Nonetheless, Minnesota is playing in a bowl for the fifth year in a row.

The Gophers can struggle offensively, but their defense, which ranks 23rd overall in the country and allows just 352.6 yards per outing, has kept them in games all season long.

Why the Washington State Cougars can cover the spread

WSU started an inauspicious 0-2 this year, then they won eight games in a row, hitting the 50-point mark four times over that span. And while the Cougars lost their last two games—to the two Pac-12 division champions, Colorado and Washington—they're making a second straight bowl appearance for the first time in over a decade.

Washington State led the Buffaloes in Boulder late into the third quarter before giving up the last 17 points in a 38-24 defeat. Then, with the Pac-12 North title on the line, the Cougars spit the bit in a 45-17 loss to the Huskies.

Prior to the Colorado game, though, Washington State had outgained each of its previous nine opponents, going 6-3 ATS along the way.

The Cougars can struggle on defense, especially against the pass, but Minnesota has trouble throwing the ball. Meanwhile, Washington State ranks in the top 15 in both total offense at 497.6 yards per game and in scoring at 40.3 points per game.

Smart pick

The Gophers had 10 players suspended for this bowl, including several from the defensive secondary, and the rest of the team then briefly went on strike, threatening a boycott. They've decided to play, but the distractions can't have helped preparation—and Minnesota was going to have a tough challenge anyway. The smartest bet on this bowl at online sports betting sites is the fade against the Gophers.

Betting trends

Washington State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with winning records.

The total has gone over in Washington State's last three games against the Big Ten.

The total has gone under in five of Minnesota's last six games against teams with winning records.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.