Which Power Conference Champion Is Most Likely to Repeat in 2017?
This season’s group of college football Power Five league champions looks somewhat similar to that of 2015, but also refreshingly different. The nation’s top two teams from a year ago (Alabama and Clemson) are back at Nos. 1-2, respectively, but beyond them, change reigns.
Oklahoma repeated as the Big 12 champions, but at 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State, the Sooners finished No. 7 and out of the College Football Playoff mix. Penn State shook off two seasons of mediocrity under coach James Franklin and won the Big Ten, just missing the playoff. Washington did the Nittany Lions one better, going 12-1 after winning 14 games in coach Chris Petersen’s first two seasons to claim the Pac-12 title and make the final four.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
What does that mean for 2017? Well, consider this: Ohio State made the College Football Playoff without making the Big Ten title game after losing a head-to-head matchup with Penn State. And the 2015 champion, Michigan State, fell completely off the map, going 3-9 overall and 1-8 in league play.
So maybe the only thing we know is that we don’t know much at all. Roster shuffling due to graduation and NFL early entries, coaching staff changes and other factors mean that the balance of power at the top of the game can shift unpredictably.
That said, we’re going to try to figure it out regardless. Which Power Five champion is most likely to repeat in 2017? Let’s take a look.
To decide, we’ll examine projected depth charts, scheduling and overall strength of rosters. As the Spartans showed, there are no year-to-year guarantees.
Penn State proved that this fall. The Nittany Lions won just 14 games in Franklin’s two years in State College and were largely an afterthought behind Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State in preseason talk. But new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead was an excellent fit with new starting quarterback Trace McSorley, who threw for 3,360 yards with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions while teaming with 1,302-yard rusher Saquon Barkley, one of college football’s top tailbacks.
Penn State starts only four seniors and doesn’t have any clear early-entry candidates (Barkley is a sophomore and McSorley a freshman), so this could only be the beginning. But the Lions do play in one of college football’s toughest divisions, and the Buckeyes and Wolverines should again be among the game’s best teams in 2017. Getting back to the Big Ten title game will be a challenge.
Oklahoma got off to a slow start with a pair of non-conference losses, but the Sooners were clearly the class of the Big 12, with Heisman Trophy finalists Baker Mayfield (3,669 yards, 38 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions) and receiver Dede Westbrook (74 catches, 1,465 yards and 17 touchdowns) leading a run to an undefeated league record and another Big 12 title.
Mayfield is expected to return for his senior season, but Westbrook is a senior, and tailbacks Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine will both receive some consideration for early NFL draft entry. It is entirely possible that the Sooners could be replacing their top two tailbacks and pass-catchers next fall, which will make a repeat more challenging. OU also must travel to Baylor and Oklahoma State. In short, a three-peat is no guarantee.
Washington had a major breakthrough in 2016, going from 7-6 to 12-1 and winning the Pac-12, with the only blemish coming against Southern California. Quarterback Jake Browning was one of the nation’s best passers, throwing for 42 touchdowns against seven interceptions, and like tailback Myles Gaskin (1,339 rushing yards, 10 scores), he is a sophomore. The Huskies are a relatively young team, with five seniors starting, but could be hit by draft defections.
Junior receiver John Ross caught 76 passes for 1,122 yards with 17 scores but is a fourth-year player after redshirting following a knee injury. And top secondary forces Budda Baker and Sidney Jones are both draft-eligible, meaning U-Dub could need to replace three-fourths of its secondary with senior Kevin King’s graduation.
Southern California will not be on the 2017 slate, and Washington State, Utah, UCLA and Oregon come to Seattle, while the Huskies travel to Stanford and Colorado. Depending on how the NFL draft treats Petersen’s roster, they could again be the clear Pac-12 favorites, but there is uncertainty.
Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has proved itself as one of the nation’s most consistent winners. 2016 marked the Tigers’ sixth consecutive season with at least 10 wins, while they also claimed their third ACC championship. Swinney has a stable, talented coaching staff, one capable of cycling standout players to the NFL without losing much on the field.
Junior quarterback Deshaun Watson (3,914 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, 15 interceptions) was the Heisman Trophy runner-up and had an excellent lead target in fourth-year junior receiver Mike Williams, who made 84 catches for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns. Swinney has stated that those two, along with junior receiver Artavis Scott and 1,000-yard tailback Wayne Gallman, are expected to declare for the NFL draft. All four were honored with Clemson’s seniors.
Their departures will leave major voids in the offense, particularly at quarterback and tailback. The leading returning passer, sophomore Kelly Bryant, had 48 yards and a touchdown this season, and the potential leading returning rusher, freshman Tavien Feaster, had 209 yards and two scores on 34 carries. The Tigers could lose six senior starters, including standout tight end Jordan Leggett and hard-hitting linebacker Ben Boulware.
Florida State will visit Memorial Stadium, but Clemson must travel to Louisville and Virginia Tech in ACC play. Don’t count out Clemson’s ability to reload, especially given how well Swinney has recruited, but a third consecutive league title is anything but a certainty.
Who does that leave? You guessed it: Alabama.
Nick Saban and his staff are better at recruiting and reloading than anyone in college football and are the odds-on favorite to claim the fifth national title of Saban’s Tuscaloosa tenure. As the Associated Press' Paul Newbury noted, Saban has single-minded focus.
"I hate to lose more than I like winning," Saban said before the SEC Championship. "I'm not in love with what we did last week or the week before that or the whole season. The challenge is the next game, because that's the game we can lose."
The Crimson Tide has a nasty, vicious defense year in and year out, and this fall, it has excellent senior leadership in defensive end Jonathan Allen and linebackers Reuben Foster and Tim Williams. The Tide will lose five senior starters and could also see third-year sophomore cornerback Marlon Humphrey tempted by the NFL draft, but they possess the game’s deepest roster and an ability to plug-and-play recruits who’ve been biding their time in reserve roles.
Alabama will also return one of the nation’s top young quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts, a bruising backfield duo in Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough and a great deep threat in receiver Calvin Ridley, although replacing a potential high NFL draft pick like Cam Robinson at left tackle could be challenging.
The Tide must travel to Texas A&M and Auburn, but host LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium. After a season that saw them go unbeaten while every other SEC team finished with at least four regular-season defeats, it’s hard to imagine a surer bet to repeat as league champions in 2017.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
