Why a New Contract at Arsenal Provides Few Guarantees for Olivier Giroud

While Arsenal have been scrabbling to secure contract extensions for Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, the situation of Olivier Giroud has passed relatively unnoticed.

Like Arsenal's marquee men, Giroud's current deal expires in 2018, meaning he is just six months from being able to leave the club at a vastly reduced fee. The latest news suggests he may be on the verge of agreeing an extension—however, that comes with few guarantees. Even if he signs a new deal, his long-term future with Arsenal must be considered to be in some doubt. 

After all, this is the season in which Giroud has lost his status as Arsenal's starting centre-forward. With Alexis flourishing in a central role, the Frenchman has largely been confined to the substitutes bench. Arsene Wenger regularly insists he retains faith in the former Montpellier man, but admits he faces a greater challenge than ever before. Speaking to Sky Sports, the Gunners boss said:

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How do we keep them all [the strikers] happy? Honestly I don't know.

If you have only one striker, the press says 'why don't you buy another striker?' Once you buy one more they say 'how can you keep him happy?'

We are in a world where you have to know where you want to be and in my case I want Giroud to stay, I want Giroud to extend his contract.

After he has to live with the competition and for me he is a very important player at the club, on the pitch and off the pitch.

I want him to stay, he has to decide if he can live with what is going on but personally I like Giroud very much.

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In the short term at least, Giroud seems content to stay. Talk of a possible January transfer has been dismissed by the player's agent, Michael Manuello, who told footmercato.net (h/t Sky Sports):

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Olivier is very well at Arsenal. He will make his season here. Nothing is possible in January. He has no plans to move during the winter transfer window.

"

Alastair Grant/Associated Press

That revelation was followed by news in the Daily Mail that Giroud could be set to join French team-mate Francis Coquelin in extending his deal in north London:

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Arsenal are close to finalising deals to keep key duo Olivier Giroud and Francis Coquelin.

The club are in advanced discussions to sign up the French stars beyond their existing contracts and are confident of a positive outcome.

Giroud is expected to sign a 12-month extension to his current deal which expires at the end of next season. 

"

On the surface, it looks good for Giroud. The offer of a new contract is, at least in part, a declaration of Wenger's continued faith in his powerful frontman.

However, there is more to this situation than meets the eye. Arsenal are also moving to protect an asset. Tying a player down to a new contract isn't exclusively a means to keep them at the club—it's also a way of ensuring they receive the maximum possible fee in the event of a sale.

It's unthinkable that Arsenal could let Giroud go in January. He's an important and popular squad member, who offers a viable "Plan B" if the Alexis approach isn't working. According to the Daily Mail, Giroud is now the most prolific substitute in the club's Premier League history. He has scored 10 times after coming off the bench, demonstrating his ability to have a game-changing impact upon a match.

Despite their recent defeat at Everton, Arsenal still consider themselves title challengers—and weakening their squad at the season's mid-point would be a curious decision to take. 

DIMITAR DILKOFF/Getty Images

However, it's clear that Giroud is still being slowly phased out of the first-team reckoning. This season, he has not started a single Premier League game. Indeed, his only two starts to date have come in the Champions League. Arsenal are evolving a new style of play, and his role in the squad is becoming gradually less prominent.  

Giroud's diminishing role can be attributed to the fact that playing him necessitates a completely different approach to playing Alexis. If the Chilean is out and Wenger opts to use Giroud, it forces a reworking of Arsenal's entire strategy. The Gunners' current game is dependent on Alexis dropping deep into midfield and creating space for the likes of Ozil and Theo Walcott to run in behind.

Giroud operates as a more traditional target man, requiring a supply line from wingers and rendering Ozil relatively redundant.

At present, if Arsenal want a direct alternative to Alexis, they are more likely to turn to Lucas Perez. The Spaniard joined last summer from Deportivo and made a relatively slow start to his time in English football but burst into life with a hat-trick against Basel in the Champions League.

Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

Things may well get worse for Giroud in the new year, when Danny Welbeck is expected to return to fitness. At the back end of last season, Welbeck briefly edged ahead of Giroud as Wenger's preferred choice at centre-forward, only for injury to scupper those plans.

However, if he can get back to that level, the England international now poses a real threat to Giroud's place at the club. He might not be quite as effective in the air as the Frenchman, but he is a good hold-up player and can play as a target man in required. His versatility and age—at 26, he's four years younger than Giroud—certainly give him an advantage over Giroud—it's simply a question of what kind of toll two serious injuries have taken on him.

Age could certainly be a factor. Giroud turned 30 earlier this season, and Wenger is famously ruthless when it comes to dispensing with players he considers to be past their physical peak. Giroud is fortunate that his style has never been particularly reliant on pace, but if his spring and upper body strength begin to fade, he could quickly become surplus to requirements at the Emirates Stadium.

Typically of the man, it does not seem Giroud is going anywhere in a hurry. A new contract would suggest his place at Arsenal is safe until the end of this season at least. However, both player and manager may be forced to reassess the situation in the summer.

Giroud also has his international place to consider and is unlikely to be content with being little more than a useful substitute. Furthermore, Wenger may look to rely more upon strikers who fit Arsenal's new, fluid style. His new deal may expire in 2019, but it would be something of a surprise if Giroud made it that far.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and will be following the club from a London base throughout 2016/17. Follow him on Twitter here.