
NFL Draft: Finding Clones of NFL's Top Rookies in 2017 Draft Class
Several NFL rookies this year have been absolute factors in their teams winning games at various points in the season. At times, we set the bar too high for rookie contributors, but when fans see first-year players making an impact, they want in.
Looking across the college football landscape, we searched to find some comparable prospects to some of the biggest names from the 2016 draft class. While it's hard to find exact comparisons, these players, in some sort of a combination of traits and narratives, are very similar to their 2017 counterparts.
Follow us as we break down potential 2017 first-round picks who can make an instant splash with their franchises as rookies.
Joey Bosa: Malik McDowell, DL/EDGE, Michigan State
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One of the most impressive players from the last draft class is Joey Bosa—an Ohio State defensive end for three seasons before being drafted by the San Diego Chargers as the top non-quarterback in the class. After missing time due to a holdout, Bosa posted four sacks in his first three games of 2016.
As of now, despite only playing in nine games, his 6.5 sacks are second-best in the NFL for rookies, just one behind Chicago's Leonard Floyd. Bosa plays a bit of a hybrid role in San Diego's 3-4 scheme, where he can line up either in the C-gap, B-gap or over an offensive tackle, depending on the specific package on the field.
If you're looking for someone who can do that in the 2017 draft class, the top name on your list has to be another former Big Ten product: Malik McDowell of Michigan State. According to NFL Draft Scout, McDowell is the exact height as—and close in weight to—the former Buckeye.
The difference is, Bosa played mostly as a 4-3 defensive end who flexed inside at times, whereas McDowell plays mostly as a 4-3 defensive tackle who flexes outside at times. In the NFL, though, a sub-280-pound lineman isn't going to get a majority of his reps on the interior.
McDowell will be moved around, where the lengthy, explosive player can be best used depending on the down and distance. According to a post on his Twitter account, he has already declared for the upcoming draft as an underclassman.
Dak Prescott: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
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Dak Prescott, Dallas' fourth-round rookie quarterback, has taken the league by storm. Prescott has posted 20 touchdowns to just four interceptions this year, giving him the best passer rating of any rookie quarterback in 2016.
Prescott is risk-adverse and mobile, with those two traits being his bread and butter in the Cowboys offense, that has led the team to an 11-2 record. If you're looking for a passer with those traits in the coming draft, the easiest player to point to is Clemson's Deshaun Watson.
Watson has started at some point in all three of his years with the Tigers, though injuries did derail his freshman season. He's a two-time Heisman finalist and very well might finish his college career with back-to-back national-title appearances, depending on how Clemson executes against Ohio State in the first round of the playoffs on New Year's Eve.
In 1,115 passing attempts, Watson has only thrown 30 interceptions, while he's posted 109 total touchdowns. He's also recorded 1,892 rushing yards in his career, not including all of the plays he's made on the move with his eyes downfield.
If you need an example of how Watson's legs can vault him as an NFL starter like Prescott, look no further than last year's national championship game against the Alabama Crimson Tide, when he nearly pulled off the upset in Vince Young-like fashion.
Will Fuller: John Ross, WR, Washington
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Last offseason, Will Fuller of Notre Dame made a massive draft rise by running a 4.32-second 40-yard dash, per NFL Draft Scout. At the end of the day, in a league with many Cover 3, Cover 4 and man-coverage defenses, receivers have to win one-on-one with speed to attack the deeper portions of the field.
Because of that, speed is a massive premium on the position. In the first two weeks of the season, Fuller, who was the Houston Texans' first-round pick, was able to post 211 receiving yards, an incredible number for a position that historically takes a year or two for prospects to develop at.
Now Fuller wasn't able to replicate that production down the stretch, but that's more on Brock Osweiler, the team's first-year quarterback, than on the receiver's talent. If you're looking for a speedy receiver this year, the target you want to point to is John Ross of Washington.
Per NFL Draft Scout, Ross' estimated 40-yard dash time is a 4.35-second mark, which, if you watch his film, sounds about right. Ross has the ability to make play in space that may even surpass Fuller's. If you watch him against the University of California this year, the entire game was basically one giant John Ross highlight tape.
Many teams, like the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers, are looking for just one receiver who can beat one-on-one coverage in 2017 to open up the rest of their offense. Ross can be that game-changing piece.
Jared Goff: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech
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For years, there was a stigma around Air Raid quarterbacks coming through the NFL draft process. Many labeled them as "system quarterbacks," but in today's college football world, nearly every major program runs some sort of spread or option offense.
This has somewhat opened up the doors for quarterbacks coming out of the Air Raid, which is why the Los Angeles Rams selected California's Jared Goff with the first overall pick of the 2016 NFL draft. Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech, a potential member of the 2017 draft class, comes from a system that is very close to the Golden Bears'.
The quarterback he beat out for a starting job, Davis Webb, was California's graduate-transfer starting passer in 2016. Mahomes' system shouldn't be that big of a speed bump, since his head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, was Johnny Manziel's offensive coordinator at Texas A&M, and Manziel was still a first-round pick when he was drafted, too.
Mahomes has all of the arm talent and mobility of a Derek Carr-type passer, someone whom many wished Goff would develop into at the next level. Goff has only thrown 136 passes in his NFL career so far, and the results have been mixed, but Mahomes undoubtedly, because of system, age, upside and overall build, has a lot in common with Goff.
Even if you go into their backgrounds, both had fathers who played baseball at the professional level. Should Mahomes declare a year early for the 2017 NFL draft, he very well could become the riser no one sees coming as an eventual top-10 pick.
Noah Spence: Tim Williams, EDGE, Alabama
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Last year, Noah Spence of Eastern Kentucky was the Senior Bowl's top pass-rushing prospect during the All-Star game's weekend. Spence was undersized, currently listed at 6'2" and 251 pounds, and was thought of as a pure pass-rusher, though.
That, along with his dismissal from Ohio State, led to him slipping to the second round of the draft, but from a talent perspective, he was one of the best in the class. He's shown that this year by recording 5.5 sacks, one sack from tying the second-best mark for a rookie pass-rusher in this year's rookie class.
Over the last couple of weeks, as a third-down player, Spence has really turned it on, and the Buccaneers have allowed just 64 points in five games, resulting in five straight victories for Tampa Bay. If you're looking for a pure pass-rusher in this upcoming draft class, a senior no less, you need to highlight Tim Williams' name.
Last year, Williams was more of a rotational player than starter for Alabama, as their 3-4 scheme didn't warrant two pass-rushing outside linebackers on the field at all times, but he's come along nicely as a senior. With potentially two more games to play, Williams has 19.5 sacks and 29.5 tackles for a loss on his college resume, and that's after two years of little to no action.
Per NFL Draft Scout, Williams should come in at 6'3" and 251 pounds, the same exact weight Spence is listed at, according to the NFL. If a team is looking for a third-down specialist, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, is as good of a place to start.
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