Which Red-Hot College Basketball Stars Will Start to Cool Off?

It can't all be sunshine and cupcakes forever in college basketball.

Scheduling cupcakes, if you get my drift. Soon the big, bad conference portion of the program will begin, which is when we can truly separate wheat from chaff.

Until then, gorge yourselves, young men. These cupcakes are so delicious that they're almost D-II-level. And in so gorging, these college basketball stars have inflated their statistics beyond what might be realistic against more consistent competition.

For some, the cupcake bubble gets especially large and tenuous. Credit where it's due—they're all good players, and they've all had terrific starts to their seasons. But the following five players just seem a little ripe for a market correction, thanks to stats that don't seem overly sustainable.

Ethan Happ, Wisconsin

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Ethan Happ is good—just not 70.7-percent-from-the-floor good. Few are.

But that's where he is, and it's good for sixth in the nation, per NCAA.com. It has made Happ the Badgers' second-leading scorer at 13.5 points per game and speaks to the monstrous post game that has netted him a Big Ten-leading 36.3 player efficiency rating, per Sports-Reference.com.

But Central Arkansas and a post-deficient Syracuse team won't always be there to soften his path to the basket. The rough-and-tumble Big Ten will slow him down a bit.

Dakota Mathias, Purdue

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You can see the lack of sustainability in the game log.  

Dakota Mathias is a good shooter. His 72.9 percent true shooting rate leads the Big Ten, and he could be at or near the top of the conference all season in that category. But it doesn't take John Wooden to notice the cracks in the trend line that underlie the 10.7 points per game he's currently chipping in. That's particularly true with his 55.8 percent clip from three-point range.

In two games against ranked teams, Mathias is a combined 2-for-10 from the floor and 1-for-6 from three. His potency is muffled a bit when facing stiffer opponents.

Johnathan Motley, Baylor

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The 8-0 Baylor Bears are the talk of college basketball. They got that fast start done the hard way, notching wins over ranked teams in Oregon, Michigan State, Louisville and Xavier. Johnathan Motley is the leader of the pack.

Mark Titus of The Ringer summarized Baylor's hot start:

"

Maybe Baylor will collapse when Big 12 conference play starts. Maybe the "Is Scott Drew a good coach?" debate will heat back up when Kansas beats the brakes off Baylor in February. For now, Drew is the national coach of the year front-runner, Johnathan Motley is arguably the best big man in the country, and Baylor’s defense is giving opposing offenses fits.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of whether Baylor can keep this up for four more months. Until proved otherwise, though, the Bears are the kings of college basketball. Drink it in, America.

"

Indeed. Baylor is just one of those programs everyone seems to root for, right? 

The Bears may have a postseason run in them, but they and Motley will come back to earth. The Big 12 is tough, and it will put Motley's newfound jump shot to the test. His fully formed offensive game won't be a secret weapon for much longer.

Justin Patton, Creighton

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Justin Patton has blazed quite a trail, helping the Creighton Blue Jays to a 10-0 record and posting an 80.3 field-goal percentage that ranks second in the nation.

And, well, come on. No one's going to shoot 80 percent from the floor for an entire season. No chance. You don't need me to tell you that.

It's especially not going to happen if his attempts continue to rise, and they likely will. The 7'0" freshman took as many shots in his first three games (18) as he has in his past two.

Luke Kennard, Duke

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Grayson Allen is the name. Amile Jefferson is the glue. Luke Kennard is the...firepower?

That seems to be the situation. If you hadn't noticed, Kennard leads the 9-1 Duke Blue Devils with 20.4 points per game and 35.7 minutes a night.

But the other shoe has to drop as conference play starts and defenses tighten up. Kennard isn't going to sneak up on the Syracuses or North Carolinas of the world (assuming North Carolina feels like guarding him, but that's another story). 

Everyone's familiar with the Kansas game earlier this year, which Duke lost on a last-second shot. (Kennard had 22 in that effort.) But it occludes the fact that the Devils are 128th nationally in nonconference strength of schedule, per KenPom, behind a number of other national powerhouses. 

In short, don't expect Kennard to go 5-for-7 from deep every game, as he did most recently against Florida. He's also prone to streakiness; consider his 3-for-20 three-point slump a few weeks back.

It's a hot start destined to go cold. He'll have a good season, but he won't finish the season in the Player of the Year conversation, which is where he'd end up if he maintained this kind of pace.