College Bowl Picks 2016-17: Latest Odds and Predictions Against the Spread
The 2016-17 college football bowl season kicks off on Saturday, December 17, with North Carolina Central versus Grambling State in the Celebration Bowl.
Six bowl games are featured on that first Saturday, followed by a stretch of almost three weeks with at least one game on nearly every day of the week.
Of course, the main event of bowl season is the College Football Playoff, which features the semifinals on New Year's Eve followed by the national championship game on January 9.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As we prep for bowl season, here's a look at the full slate of games and spreads for each contest, followed by a closer look at three intriguing matchups.
| Sat, Dec. 17 | |||
| Celebration | Noon | North Carolina Central vs. Grambling State | GRAM |
| New Mexico | 2 p.m. | New Mexico (-7) vs. UTSA | UNM |
| Las Vegas | 3:30 p.m. | San Diego State vs. Houston (-3) | HOU |
| Cure | 5:30 p.m. | UCF (-5.5) vs. Arkansas State | UCF |
| Camellia | 5:30 p.m. | Appalachian State vs. Toledo (-1) | TOL |
| New Orleans | 9 p.m. | Southern Miss (-3.5) vs. UL-Lafayette | USM |
| Mon, Dec. 19 | |||
| Miami Beach | 2:30 p.m. | Central Michigan vs. Tulsa (-11.5) | TUL |
| Tues, Dec. 20 | |||
| Boca Raton | 7 p.m. | Memphis vs. Western Kentucky (-4.5) | MEM |
| Wed, Dec. 21 | |||
| Poinsettia | 9 p.m. | BYU (-8) vs. Wyoming | WYO |
| Thurs, Dec. 22 | |||
| Potato | 7 p.m. | Idaho vs. Colorado State (-13.5) | CSU |
| Fri, Dec. 23 | |||
| Bahamas | 1 p.m. | Old Dominion (-3.5) vs. Eastern Michigan | EMU |
| Armed Forces | 4:30 p.m. | Louisiana Tech vs. Navy (-1.5) | NAVY |
| Dollar General | 8 p.m. | Ohio vs. Troy (-3.5) | OHIO |
| Sat, Dec. 24 | |||
| Hawaii | 8 p.m. | Hawaii vs. Middle Tennessee | HAW |
| Mon, Dec. 26 | |||
| St. Petersburg | 11 a.m. | Mississippi State (-12.5) vs. Miami OH | MSST |
| Quick Lane | 2:30 p.m. | Boston College (-2.5) vs. Maryland | MD |
| Independence | 5 p.m. | NC State (-4) vs. Vanderbilt | NCST |
| Tues, Dec. 27 | |||
| Heart of Dallas | Noon | Army (-9) vs. North Texas | ARMY |
| Military | 3:30 p.m. | Wake Forest vs. Temple (-13) | TEM |
| Holiday | 7 p.m. | Minnesota vs. Washington State (-6.5) | MINN |
| Cactus | 10:15 p.m. | Baylor vs. Boise State (-7.5) | BSU |
| Wed, Dec. 28 | |||
| Pinstripe | 2 p.m. | Northwestern vs. Pitt (-5) | PITT |
| Russell Athletic | 5:30 p.m. | Miami FL (-3) vs. West Virginia | WVU |
| Foster Farms | 8:30 p.m. | Indiana vs. Utah (-8) | UTAH |
| Texas | 9 p.m. | Kansas State vs. Texas A&M (-2) | TA&M |
| Thurs, Dec. 29 | |||
| Birmingham | 2 p.m. | USF (-10.5) vs. South Carolina | USF |
| Belk | 5:30 p.m. | Virginia Tech (-7) vs. Arkansas | ARK |
| Alamo | 9 p.m. | Oklahoma State vs. Colorado (-3) | COL |
| Fri, Dec. 30 | |||
| Arizona | 5:30 p.m. | Air Force (-12.5) vs. South Alabama | AF |
| Liberty | Noon | TCU (-1) vs. Georgia | UGA |
| Sun | 2 p.m. | North Carolina vs. Stanford (-3.5) | UNC |
| Music City | 3:30 p.m. | Nebraska vs. Tennessee (-3) | NEB |
| Orange | 8 p.m. | Michigan (-7) vs. Florida State | FSU |
| Sat, Dec. 31 | |||
| Peach | 3 p.m. | Alabama (-16) vs. Washington | BAMA |
| Fiesta | 7 p.m. | Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Clemson | CLEM |
| TaxSlayer | 11 a.m. | Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs. Kentucky | UK |
| Citrus | 11 a.m. | Louisville vs. LSU (-3.5) | LSU |
| Mon, Jan. 2 | |||
| Outback | 1 p.m. | Florida (-2.5) vs. Iowa | IOWA |
| Cotton | 1 p.m. | Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-7.5) | WMU |
| Rose | 5 p.m. | Penn State vs. USC (-7) | USC |
| Sugar | 8:30 p.m. | Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-4.5) | OKLA |
| Mon, Jan. 9 | |||
| CFP National Championship | 8:30 p.m. | TBD |
Las Vegas Bowl: San Diego State vs. Houston (-3)
On the opening Saturday of bowl season, the most interesting game pits the San Diego State Aztecs against the Houston Cougars.
Led by running back Donnel Pumphrey, who has already surpassed the 2,000-yard mark on the season, San Diego State boasts one of the nation's most potent rushing attacks.
However, Pumphrey's stats may be a little inflated due to San Diego State's cupcake schedule.
The Aztecs faced just three teams that finished with a winning record this season: Wyoming (twice) and Colorado State. Those three games produced the three lowest rushing totals of the season for Pumphrey, excluding the season opener versus New Hampshire in which he played sparingly in a 31-0 victory.
Houston will be the toughest test of Pumphrey's season, and the Cougars should have no problem shutting down San Diego State's one-dimensional offense.
The Cougars also have a strong recent history facing teams outside the American Athletic Conference. According to ScoresAndOdds.com, Houston is 10-3 against the spread versus nonconference opponents over the past three seasons.
Houston is only favored by three points in this matchup, perhaps due to the fact that head coach Tom Herman recently accepted the same role with the Texas Longhorns.
The loss of Herman certainly raises some questions, as it's always tough to quantify the impact of a coach, but the several other factors in this game clearly favor the Cougars.
Prediction: Houston 37, San Diego State 24
Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. TCU (-1)
It's difficult to trust the Georgia Bulldogs in this matchup after their roller-coaster season under first-year head coach Kirby Smart. However, it might be even more difficult to trust the TCU Horned Frogs defense against Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and Georgia's rushing attack.
TCU has surrendered over 250 yards on the ground three times this season—all losses—and it wouldn't be a shock if Georgia approached that milestone as well.
Led by Chubb and Michel, Georgia has racked up over 200 rushing yards in six of their 12 games, and it should have no issue carving up the porous TCU defense.
The only hurdle for Georgia will be finding a way to slow down Kenny Hill and the Horned Frogs' passing attack. But with nearly a full month to prepare, Smart, a longtime defensive coordinator under head coach Nick Saban, should be able to devise a strong game plan for the Bulldogs.
After a slow start, the Bulldogs defense made significant strides late in the season. Most notably, Georgia held the Auburn Tigers to a season-low 164 total yards in an upset victory in mid-November.
As long as Georgia can avoid getting into a shootout with TCU, the Bulldogs should be able to grind out a victory in a relatively low-scoring game.
Prediction: Georgia 24, TCU 17
Peach Bowl: Washington vs. Alabama (-16)
The Alabama Crimson Tide are heavy favorites to win the College Football Playoff, but the hype may be getting a little out of control.
ESPN's Football Power Index has Alabama ranked as the No. 1 team in the country but projects it as only a 5.6-point favorite over the Washington Huskies on a neutral field. That's an astonishing difference from the actual spread of 16 points.
FPI has a strong track record picking games against the spread. According to ThePredictionTracker.com, FPI ranked eighth out of 65 statistical systems in picking games against the spread during the 2016 season.
It's also worth nothing that Alabama has a history of losing outright as heavy favorites in big bowl games. Obviously the Crimson Tide have also won plenty of big games, but Saban does have the 2014 CFP semifinal loss to Ohio State and the Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma from three seasons ago on his resume.
According to OddsShark, Alabama opened as nine-point favorites over Ohio State and 16-point favorites over Oklahoma.
Picking Washington to win outright would be going out on a limb, but given the substantial spread in this game, the safe ATS pick appears to be the Huskies.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Washington 21
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