Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Max Holloway and Anthony Pettis are set to square off for the interim featherweight title this Saturday at UFC 206. The matchup was slated as the show's main event after an injury forced Daniel Cormier to withdraw from his 205-pound title match with Anthony Johnson.
The featherweights, fighting for the right to reign in absentee kingpin Conor McGregor's division, arrive at the bout having taken divergent paths. Pettis just recently joined the division, winning in his debut after being chased from the lightweight class after three straight losses. Holloway, meanwhile, is looking to extend his current win streak to 10.
Presumably, the winner of the contest will earn a date with Jose Aldo, who was awarded the featherweight title in McGregor's absence. Will it be Holloway or Pettis that earns that opportunity to fight in that unification bout?
In advance of the UFC 206 main event, Bleacher Report breaks down the matchup, examining where each fighter holds an edge, and which one is likely to emerge the challenger to take on Aldo.
Striking
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It wasn't long ago that the prospect of Pettis losing a fight seemed unlikely. Then he dropped back-to-back outings against Rafael Dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez, both of whom exposed his wrestling defense.
Still, though, the thought of Pettis losing a striking match felt absurd. Until Edson Barboza outpointed him in what essentially amounted to a kickboxing fight.
Some of the mystique has definitely left the Pettis name, but he remains a huge threat on the feet. His combination of speed and power is rarely seen in a single fighter and gives him an edge over most opponents. But not necessarily all.
Holloway has emerged as a top contender in the featherweight division, laying waste to a roster of perennial competitors. While Holloway has exhibited a well-rounded game during his current nine-fight win streak, striking stands at the forefront of his success.
Holloway is numerically even with, or superior to, Pettis in most measured areas of striking. FightMetric shows he is more active, better defensively and just as accurate. Pettis absorbs less damage overall, but he's hit almost as often as he lands, while Holloway lands far more than he absorbs.
I would be inclined to ignore the numbers in favor of Pettis' well-earned reputation, but recent history also supports Holloway's edge. Those two factors are why he gets a hesitant nod here.
Edge: Holloway
Grappling
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Holloway almost never shoots for a takedown. Since joining the UFC he has scored only two. On the bright side, he's only been rebuffed a single time. The infrequency of takedown attempts isn't exactly an accomplishment, but it's rather amazing in a sense, given his 15-fight tenure.
Pettis similarly has had little use for wrestling. His last successful takedown came in 2011, but unlike Holloway, he has tried to wrestle some foes to the mat since then.
Defensively, Pettis has had some issues. Dos Anjos took him down nine times. Alvarez took him down six. Charles Oliveira, hardly known as a power wrestler, took him down four times.
Holloway's defense, on the other hand, has been superb. He's gone six outings without capitulating to a takedown, stuffing 24 shots during that time. That's impressive from any angle, but especially so when you consider his opponents include Cub Swanson, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
Particularly on the strength of his defense, Holloway gets the edge in grappling.
Edge: Holloway
Submissions
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Pettis is mostly known for his striking, but he's submitted more foes than he's knocked out. In fact, his last three victories have come via the tap.
Showtime has never lost by submission, despite spending his fair share of time on the canvas. Opponents usually plan to make him fight off his back, but Pettis has proven to be more threatening than vulnerable in that position.
Holloway dropped his UFC debut via submission, but he has not tapped since. He's notched only two submission wins during his time with the promotion, but both came against tough opponents.
So while the numbers favor Pettis here, submissions are not a weakness for Holloway. Offensively, he is an opportunistic finisher, while his capable defense and strong takedown-prevention skills make him difficult prey for others. Nevertheless, Pettis is the more dangerous submission artist and has the edge.
Edge: Pettis
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X-Factors
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Holloway's X-Factor: Making In-Fight Adjustments
Holloway's near absence of takedown attempts point to the fact that he has a rather singular approach to combat. It's worked so far, so it's difficult to criticize, but he may need to display increased versatility against Pettis.
Pettis is one of a few fighters who might have an athletic edge against Holloway. His quickness and explosiveness are qualities that give most opponents issues, and Holloway is hardly immune.
If Pettis' speed proves problematic, will Holloway adjust? Will he make use of the clinch? Will he go for some takedowns?
It's a scenario that may plausibly play out. If it does, how Holloway reacts will be paramount in determining the bout's outcome.
Pettis' X-Factor: Keeping Up with Holloway's Pace
You probably wouldn't call Pettis a methodical fighter, but his output, dating back to WEC 41, amounts to approximately half of Holloway's on an average basis. Add in that Pettis is making the weight cut to 145 pounds for just the second time, and that he may have to go five rounds, and it's worth wondering whether he'll be able to keep up.
Of course, Holloway has gone five rounds just one time, so it's also questionable that he'll be able to set his usual pace for a full 25 minutes. But he's more accustomed to meeting the featherweight weight limit than Pettis, so the prospect is less concerning.
Pettis is a tremendous athlete and as explosive as they come. I am inclined to believe he'll manage Holloway's pace without losing too much steam, but the scenario bears watching. Because if he slows down and tries to rest, he'll pay dearly for it.
Prediction
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Every aspect of the fight is close enough that either man could grab an advantage. I gave Holloway a minimal striking edge, but a Pettis knockout is absolutely possible. Just as well, it's not inconceivable that Holloway is able to make Pettis tap. In other words, it's a close match with no shortage of plausible outcomes.
But where you find a gap is in the respective recent histories of the two fighters. Holloway is peaking now, getting better every time he fights. The same cannot be said about Pettis. Losing three straight before winning a back-and-forth battle is not what you call trending up.
Even if you're not a believer in momentum, it's difficult to argue that Holloway hasn't simply been competing at a higher level of late. While Pettis has struggled to stay relevant, Holloway has climbed to the pinnacle of his career and there has been no sign that he won't continue to push to greater heights.
The fight will play out as close battle on the feet, but Holloway will take the lead by exposing Pettis in close, and maybe even mix in the occasional takedown. It won't be enough for the finish, but it will be enough for the win.
Prediction: Holloway def. Pettis, unanimous decision
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